The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 30, 2015 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and northern and northcentral India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year. Rainfall was also much above normal over Borneo island, but below normal elsewhere over eastern China across Indonesia and Australia. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the precipitation over northern India and vicinity was abnormally above normal for this time of the year. However, rainfall was below normal over southeastern China, and much below normal over much of northern and northcentral Australia. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, precipitation was generally at or below normal over much of southeast Asia and northern Australia, except for some spotty rainfall maxima near coastal Northern Territory in Australia and in Kashmir, India. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and northern and northcentral India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year. Rainfall was also much above normal over Borneo island, but below normal elsewhere over eastern China across Indonesia and Australia. For the past 30 days, the precipitation over northern India and vicinity was abnormally above normal for this time of the year. However, rainfall was below normal over southeastern China, and much below normal over much of northern and northcentral Australia. In this past week, precipitation was generally at or below normal over much of southeast Asia and northern Australia, except for some sporadic spotty rainfall maxima near coastal Northern Territory in Australia and in Kashmir, India. In the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting continued above normal rainfall over northern Pakistan/India vicinity, and across eastern north China and less rainfall to the south. More rainfall is also forecast by the model over southwestern Australia. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13