The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 13, 2020 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal over east central Afghanistan, northern and central Pakistan, and Kashmir/India. Slightly above normal rainfall was also noted over large parts of Iran and east central India. Above normal rainfall was also observed over southeastern China, southeastern Australia and pasts of Indonesia. Elsewhere the rainfall amounts were near or below normal. Below normal rainfall deficits continue to dominate large parts 3 of northwestern Australia, particularly coastal regions of Northern Territory and parts of Western Australia.

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall is much similar

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall is much similar to the ninety day pattern with above normal rainfall over the middle east in eastern Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan, southeastern China parts of Indonesia and southeastern Australia. Elsewhere the rainfall is mixed and/or mostly below normal. Recently, parts of the middle east including Pakistan, which is 4 generally dry, is getting more rainfall than normal, which is quite unusual.

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, large parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan,

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, large parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of western Indonesia and southeastern China continued to receive above normal rainfall. Rainfall elsewhere is either mixed or near normal. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal over east central Afghanistan, northern and central Pakistan, and Kashmir/India. Slightly above normal rainfall was also noted over large parts of Iran and east central India. Above normal rainfall was also observed over southeastern China, southeastern Australia and pasts of Indonesia. Elsewhere the rainfall amounts were near or below normal. Below normal rainfall deficits continue to dominate large parts of northwestern Australia, particularly coastal regions of Northern Territory and parts of Western Australia. For the past 30 days, rainfall is much similar to the ninety day pattern with above normal rainfall over the middle east in eastern Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan, southeastern China parts of Indonesia and southeastern Australia. Elsewhere the rainfall is mixed and/or mostly below normal. Recently, parts of the middle east including Pakistan, which is generally dry, is getting more rainfall than normal, which is quite unusual. In this past week, large parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of western Indonesia and southeastern China continued to receive above normal rainfall. Rainfall elsewhere is either mixed or near normal. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model is forecasting near to above normal rainfall over the middle east and northeastern India. Southeastern China is forecast to have below normal in the first week and above normal in the second week. Far northern and eastern Australia is also expected to have below normal rainfall in the second week. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13

Climatology 13