The application of climate forecasts and agrometeorological information

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The application of climate forecasts and agrometeorological information for agriculture, food security, forestry, livestock

The application of climate forecasts and agrometeorological information for agriculture, food security, forestry, livestock and fisheries G. Maracchi, F. Meneguzzo, M. Paganini Banjul, Gambia, 9 -13 December, 2002 1 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Information needs of FOOD SECURITY Availability of input data Appropriate location Appropriate spatial resolution

Information needs of FOOD SECURITY Availability of input data Appropriate location Appropriate spatial resolution Timely information 2 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems 3 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for

Existing Food Security Systems 3 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP Base parameters • statistical analysis procedures on

Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP Base parameters • statistical analysis procedures on rainfall for ecological zoning; • a millet simulation model to estimate millet crop conditions and the effect of rainfall distribution; • statistical analysis of the yields. 4 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP Varieties 75 days 90 days 120 days

Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP Varieties 75 days 90 days 120 days phot. Phases length Growing 50 65 80 JFL - JSEM Flowering 15 15 Grain filling 15 15 20 20 Initial Kc 0. 2 0. 15 0. 1 Growth at five days interval 0. 08 0. 06538 0. 0562 (1 -0. 1)/(IPFL-IPSEM) 5 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP 6 Expert meeting on the application of

Existing Food Security Systems - AGRHYMET SISP 6 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

7 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

7 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - USAID FEWS The analysis is organised in three sections:

Existing Food Security Systems - USAID FEWS The analysis is organised in three sections: • Vulnerability/Baseline Information • Hazard/Shock Information • Risk/Outcome Analysis 8 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

9 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

9 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

10 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

10 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - DHC-Champs pluviaux The CCD are used in the crop

Existing Food Security Systems - DHC-Champs pluviaux The CCD are used in the crop water diagnostic (DHC) in order to produce: • maps of the crop water satisfaction • maps of the crop water needs • maps of crop yields 11 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - DHC-Champs pluviaux 12 Expert meeting on the application of

Existing Food Security Systems - DHC-Champs pluviaux 12 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - World Food Programme Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping WFP has

Existing Food Security Systems - World Food Programme Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping WFP has produced vulnerability assessment maps in 3 stages: ·identifying the income sources for each relevant group ·analysing the causal structure of vulnerability ·reconciling the analysis of risk and coping 13 capacity Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

14 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

14 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS -monitors food supply and demand -analyses information

Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS -monitors food supply and demand -analyses information on production stocks, trade and food aid -monitors export prices -reacts to natural disasters -issues Special Alerts and up-to-date reports 15 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS -web pages on the Internet -develops new

Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS -web pages on the Internet -develops new approaches for early warning -cultivates and maintains informationsharing between governmental and private actors -depends on the free exchange of information 16 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS 17 Expert meeting on the application of

Existing Food Security Systems - FAO GIEWS 17 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Solving the problem FOOD SECURITY INFORMATION • Information available on Internet • More appropriate

Solving the problem FOOD SECURITY INFORMATION • Information available on Internet • More appropriate to the decision makers information needs CLIMATE PREDICTION INFORMATION • Improved survey methods and operations for monitoring actual and potential outbreak areas • Create interaction between producers of information 18 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

The local CLIMATE • Decreasing annual pluviometry S -N • Alternation of dry season

The local CLIMATE • Decreasing annual pluviometry S -N • Alternation of dry season (9 -5 months) and rainy season • The monsoon is the main defining factor • Unimodal distribution of the rain 19 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Link between climate and teleconnections CLIMATE DEFINITION The average of the weather over periods

Link between climate and teleconnections CLIMATE DEFINITION The average of the weather over periods TELECONNECTIONS DEFINITION The effects of changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on temperature and rainfall patterns in regions that are far away from the Pacific 20 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

21 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

21 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

22 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

22 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Teleconnections in Sahel 23 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Teleconnections in Sahel 23 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Simultaneous Correlation of Sahel Rainfall with SST (June, July) 24 Expert meeting on the

Simultaneous Correlation of Sahel Rainfall with SST (June, July) 24 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Simultaneous Correlation of Sahel Rainfall with SST (August, September) 25 Expert meeting on the

Simultaneous Correlation of Sahel Rainfall with SST (August, September) 25 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Correlation of Sahel Rainfall in June and July with SST in May 26 Expert

Correlation of Sahel Rainfall in June and July with SST in May 26 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - location Drought years are associated with the ITCZ being south

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - location Drought years are associated with the ITCZ being south of its normal position, while wet years are associated with the ITCZ north of normal Warmer SST in Guinea Gulf lead to higher precipitation over Guinea coast (increased moisture) and lesser over Sahel (northerly flow, sinking at low levels) 27 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - location Rapidly increasing SST in May over Guinea cause delayed

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - location Rapidly increasing SST in May over Guinea cause delayed monsoon in Sahel (June and July) 28 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Synthetic descriptions of atmospheric teleconnection patterns Can be found at following addresses: ·The Climate

Synthetic descriptions of atmospheric teleconnection patterns Can be found at following addresses: ·The Climate Diagnostics Center (NOAA)http: //www. cdc. noaa. gov/Tele connections ·Climate Precition Center (NOAA): http: //www. cpc. noaa. gov/data/teledo c/telecontents. html 29 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Existing climate predictions Amount of rainfall • IRI Net assessments • PRESAO outlook •

Existing climate predictions Amount of rainfall • IRI Net assessments • PRESAO outlook • CLIMAG WA enhanced methodology Onset of the growing season • IBIMET methodology (Maracchi/Pini) • Omotosho method • CLIMAG WA enhanced methodology 30 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Applications for 2001 & 2002 • Comparison of results per single zone for each

Applications for 2001 & 2002 • Comparison of results per single zone for each year BUT • Each methodology has its own spatial resolution • Each methodology has its own temporal resolution 31 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Data formats 32 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Data formats 32 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

The IRI Forecast Process (1) • Forecasting the tropical SST anomalies using dynamical and

The IRI Forecast Process (1) • Forecasting the tropical SST anomalies using dynamical and statistical models • Using the predicted SST for atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) • Estimating the expected skill 33 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

The IRI Forecast Process (2) • Statistical postprocessing of model output • Putting all

The IRI Forecast Process (2) • Statistical postprocessing of model output • Putting all the indications together a final IRI forecast called net assessment • issued in the form of maps that show regions having homogeneous forecast probabilities for the below, near and above normal terciles 34 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Examples of Net Assessments 35 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for

Examples of Net Assessments 35 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Omotosho methodology Onset of the growing season The method is empirical/dynamical and uses the

Omotosho methodology Onset of the growing season The method is empirical/dynamical and uses the following requirements: • Difference between the U-component of the wind at 3000 m and at the surface must be between – 20 m/s and – 5 m/s ·Difference between the U-component of the wind at 7500 m and at 3000 m must be between 0 and 10 m/s 36 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Omotosho methodology Onset of the growing season 37 Expert meeting on the application of

Omotosho methodology Onset of the growing season 37 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

IBIMET method Onset of the growing season • Predict the seeding decades for the

IBIMET method Onset of the growing season • Predict the seeding decades for the different zones in order to produce advises to peasants • The philosophy is to utilise the information already available on INTERNET (NOAA, IGES COLA, ADDS) 38 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Exercise for the agricultural season 2001 1 – Rainfall Forecasting section NOAA - Climate

Exercise for the agricultural season 2001 1 – Rainfall Forecasting section NOAA - Climate Prediction Center, Prediction of the rainfall quantity at 2496 hours 2 – Rainfall Estimation section ADDS - Africa Data Dissemination Service, Decadal rainfall estimation images 3 – Field data section Real sowing dates in different areas in Mali collected by local institutions 39 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Forecasting Section Daily forecast images = Total rainfall of the decade Through the daily

Forecasting Section Daily forecast images = Total rainfall of the decade Through the daily images it is possible to forecast the amount of rainfall expected in the decade and give the advise of the sowing date to 40 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture farmers

Estimation Section Precipitation Estimate based on GPI, SSM/I, AMSU and GTS The image has

Estimation Section Precipitation Estimate based on GPI, SSM/I, AMSU and GTS The image has been utilised to validate the information prepared by the forecasting information 41 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Field Observation Data Section Field observation areas Data collected by local institutions The collected

Field Observation Data Section Field observation areas Data collected by local institutions The collected information are related to the real sowing date 42 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

The information of the different three sections has been compared in order to evaluate

The information of the different three sections has been compared in order to evaluate the process Results-2001 43 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 42 A

Results-2002 44 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 42 B

Results-2002 44 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture 42 B

Comparison between predictions 45 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Comparison between predictions 45 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

Examples of comparison 2002 wet season PRESAO FORECAST CLIMAG WA FORECAST Zone 3 Zone

Examples of comparison 2002 wet season PRESAO FORECAST CLIMAG WA FORECAST Zone 3 Zone 2 Zone 1 46 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - an added value • Allows to evaluate the conditions of the

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - an added value • Allows to evaluate the conditions of the wet season on the agricultural and food situation • Allows to evaluate the conditions and the effectiveness of the Early Warning Systems and of the mechanisms of crisis management 47 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Bulletins • Ex. AGRHYMET Regional Centre 48 Expert meeting

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Bulletins • Ex. AGRHYMET Regional Centre 48 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Space-borne information • Satellite images (METEOSAT, NOAA, . .

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools Space-borne information • Satellite images (METEOSAT, NOAA, . . . ) 49 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools INTERNET • Warnings diffused by Internet 50 Expert meeting

MONITORING ACTIVITIES - operational tools INTERNET • Warnings diffused by Internet 50 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture

CONCLUSIONS • Improving and merging food security systems • Improve interactions and combinations between

CONCLUSIONS • Improving and merging food security systems • Improve interactions and combinations between food security and seasonal prediction systems • Using seasonal prediction to define specific inputs (e. g. onset of the growing season) 51 Expert meeting on the application of climate forecasts for agriculture