The analysis of air transport in Poland POZNA

The analysis of air transport in Poland POZNAŃ UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE OF COMBUSTION ENGINES AND TRANSPORT Authors: Jerzy Merkisz, Jacek Pielecha, Jarosław Markowski, Marta Galant, Remigiusz Jasiński, Dawid Gallas International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam

Agenda ◦ Introduction ◦ Polish airports ◦ Passenger transport in Poland ◦ National and international transport ◦ Structure of transport according to the business model ◦ Conclusions International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 2

Introduction ◦ Air transport is the youngest and the most dynamically developing branch of transport, ◦ Air traffic in Europe is distributed very unevenly. More than half of it takes place in 7 major airports (London Heathrow, Frankfurt n / Main, Paris CDG, Amsterdam, Madrid, London Gatwick, Rome), ◦ And the 23 largest airports correspond to 66% of this movement, ◦ Unfortunately Chopin airport is in the 41 st position International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 3

Introduction The leading companies in the production of aircraft regularly reports on the prospects for the development of the aviation market, Large wide-body Medium wide-body Small wide-body 2014 740 1 620 2 520 2034 670 3 800 5 800 Single aisle Regional jets Total 14 140 2 508 21 600 30 630 2 660 43 560 -10% +135% +130% +117% +6% +102% Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 4

Introduction Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 5

Polish airports 14 (15) international airports, ◦ the ones that are closest to each other: ◦ Warsaw Chopin (EPWA) and Modlin (EPMO) ◦ Poznań (EPPO) and Zielona Góra (EPZG) ◦ Krakow (EPKK) and Pyrzowice (EPKT). ◦ Figure shows the road accessibility to airports within Polish borders. Based on the speed limits of different types of roads, the time it takes to reach of the airports in Poland was calculated ◦ Aside from the residents of the most eastern parts of the Warmia-Mazury region and Podlasie region, Polish residents can reach the airport within 180 minutes, of which the vast majority in urban agglomerations reach the airport in less than an hour International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 6

Polish airports • In Poland we have: • 38. 5 mln people • 15 airports 1 airport for every 2. 5 mln people • most passengers were serviced at the: • Chopin Airport (10. 7 million passengers) • Kraków (3. 6 million) • Gdansk (2. 8 million) • at the other extreme were the airports: • Zielona Gora with 10 thousand passengers throughout all of 2014 • Radom Airport (opened in June 2014 – handled about 200 passengers) International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 7

Structure Poland Holland 6% 6% 39% 4% 55% 90% Chopin airport Top 6 airports other (8) Schiphol airport Eindhoven airport International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam other (3) 8

Polish airports number of passengers [mln] 2014 30 25 20 15 10 5 10. 575 Chopin airport all polish airports 27. 052 International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 9

Polish airports vs Schiphol airport 2014 number of passengers [mln] 60 50 40 30 20 10 - 54. 987 10. 575 Chopin airport 27. 052 all polish airports Schiphol airport International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 10

Polish airports vs others 2014 number of passengers [mln] 250 200 150 10. 575 27. 052 54. 978 50 220. 021 0 Chopin airport all polish airports Schiphol airport UK airports Source: Eurostat International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 11

Polish airports the overall market 3. 0% regional airports EPWW 4% 15% 2% 2. 0% 10% 2. 80% 1. 0% 2. 24% 0% -2% 2. 18% 0% Poland 11. 53% 5% 0. 0% ACI airports 2. 90% EPWW ACI airports -3. 74% -6% • The total result of all polish ports was slightly worse compared to European ports that are members of the ACI (Airport Council International), which recorded an increase of 2. 8% • The market leader - the Chopin airport recorded nearly 6 -fold higher growth to comparable ports in ACI • The results of regional airports in Poland remained at a level noticeably worse (-3. 74%) in relation to the ports affiliated to ACI, serving less than 5 million passengers a year. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 12

Passenger transport in Poland 280 26 27. 052 24 24. 983 24. 436 22 21. 711 20 2011 2012 in total 2013 2014 The number of operations carried out [x 100] number of passengers [mln] 28 275 276. 696 270 265 268. 999 260 263. 028 255 250 245 240 246. 679 235 230 2011 2012 2013 2014 total International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 13

Passenger transport in Poland o From May to July (2013) the market noted declines compared to the corresponding months of the previous year o This situation was the result of a dynamic growth in the offer of national operations conducted by the carrier OLT in 2012 o OLT Express was a Polish airline which first flight was done 1 April 2012 and on 27 July 2012 they filed for bankruptcy after its licence was suspended by the Polish Aviation Authority o If you skip this carrier in the analysis, traffic growth can be seen for all months of 2013 International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 14

National and international transport o Comparision between 2012 and 2013 o The dynamics of domestic transport (red bar graph) in Polish airports (-31. 5%) was significantly lower compared to the ACI airports, which in this segment of traffic have not recorded changes in traffic volumes o As mentioned earlier it was mainly the result of a lack of alternatives for OLT flights and a decline in offers from LOT Polish Airlines and Eurolot SA o International transport in Poland (blue bar graph) recorded approx. 2 -fold higher growth compared to international transport carried out by ACI ports International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 15

Structure of transport according to the business model o Low-cost carriers recorded a high increase in traffic +19%, 18. 80% 26. 40% 1. 80% o Network and charter carriers have noted declines of 8% and 10% respectively o Leader – Ryanair – reported an increase of 35% 3. 50% o Second biggest increase was reported by Air Berlin 3. 50% 6. 10% 23. 60% 16. 30% o Charter carriers (Bingo Airways, Travel Service and Small Planet) o Emirates Ryanair Wizz Air Travel Service Easy. Jet LOT Polish Airlines + Eurolot SA Lufthansa Enter Air Another o In total, these carriers were responsible for over 80% of new passenger market o The largest decreases were recorded for PLL LOT airlines, Wizzair and Enter Air International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 16

Structure of transport according to the business model Traditional carrier o Year after year, the share of charter flights falls (-18% in 2013 compared to 2011) o The share of traditional carrier also decreased (almost 11% in 2013 compared to 2011) o There is a significant increase in the share of LCC in polish air transport structure (20% increase in 2013 compared to 2011) 100% 90% LCC Charter 13. 4 12. 2 11 40. 7 41. 6 48. 3 45. 6 46. 1 40. 7 2011 2012 2013 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 17

LCC flight dynamics comparison o The figure shows the comparison of flight dynamics of LCC in Europe and Poland 20 o Poland recorded an 18. 59% increase in LCC flight dynamics. While Europe recorded just 4. 41% in the corresponding time period 15 o It is worth noting that in large part the new offer of the carriers in Poland were to the Warsaw agglomeration. More than 60% of all new Ryanair passengers were handled at the Chopin Airport and at Modlin airport 18. 59 10 o Significant increases among low-cost carriers were also recorded for Air Berlin and Easy Jet 5 4. 41 0 Poland Europe o A significant reduction in traffic (approx. -3%) was recorded for Wizzair o It should be noted, however, that Ryanair and Wizzair still account for nearly 90% of all low-cost transport in Poland International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 18

Regular flight dynamics comparison o Network carriers in Poland, same as elsewhere in Europe, decreased their operations in 2013, while the decline in the case of Poland was significantly greater o To a large extent this was due to the lack of alternatives for OLT carrier in 2012. Skipping the OLT group in the analysis makes the reduction in network traffic amount to -4% o In scheduled traffic a significant drop was recorded for other Polish carriers: LOT Polish Airlines, followed by Eurolot SA o The biggest increases in 2013, were recorded by gulf carriers that are new on the Polish market: Emirates and Qatar Airways Poland Europe 0 -0. 65 -2 -4 -6 -9. 7 -8 -10 -12 International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 19

Conclusions o Polish airports handled nearly 27 million passengers in 2014, an 8% increase over the previous year, o The total result of all Polish ports was slightly worse compared to European ports that are members of ACI, o Nevertheless, this should be considered a very good result, considering that in 2014 traffic was up by over 24% compared to 2011, International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 20

Conclusions o The lead in increases in passenger traffic belonged to the Chopin Airport, which in 2013 recorded an almost 6 -fold higher increase in the number of passengers than for comparable ports in ACI, o In contrast to the ACI ports the regional airports in Poland together recorded a decline in traffic of nearly 4%, o International transport grew more dynamically in Poland than in Europe, mainly due to the expansion of low-cost carriers, o Polish airports recorded an unprecedented (over 31%) decrease in domestic transport while at the ACI airports movement of this type has not changed. International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 21

Conclusions – Polish Aviation Authority forecast pax forecast 10 8 60000 6 50000 4 40000 2 30000 -2 20000 -4 0 Dynamic [%] Number of passenger [thous. ] 70000 -6 10000 -8 0 -10 2008 2013 2018 pax (in thous. ) 2023 2028 dynamic International Conference on Air Transport INAIR 2015, 12 -13 November, Amsterdam 22

Thank you for your attention INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AIR TRANSPORT INAIR 2015 12 -13 NOVEMBER, AMSTERDAM