Tea Adaptation to and mitigation against climate change

Tea: Adaptation to and mitigation against climate change By. F. N. Wachira, J. Bore, D. Musembi South Eastern Kenya University Tea Research Institute, KALRO Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

TEA IN AFRICA: AN IMPORTANT CASH CROP Insert your text here. -Source of livelihood to (Directly and Indirectly) about 5 million East Africans and their families - Critical sub-sector- Contributes to the national economies of K, U, T, RW, BU, DRC, Malawi -A rural based enterprise & contributes to rural poverty alleviation -Contributes to Environmental conservation / Carbon sink- sequestration Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

What is Climate Change (CC)? Change in global or regional climate patterns due to increased CO 2 • El Nino – Associated with warming of the sea surface in the pacific; In EA, it results in increased rainfall depending on strength (or even drought- La Nina), Occurs every 2 -6 yrs in EA, Last experienced in 1986/7, 91/92, 94/95, 2002/3, 04/05, 06/07/09/10, 15/16, 19 • Frequency of El nino is associated with CC. • Depending on strength it can result in increase or decrease of tea yields (10 -20%). Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

CC- Real or fiction? Scenario Analysis. Evidence Capacity Devt. & Stakeholder engagement Is Climate Change real? Is there tangible evidence? How does CC affect my tea business? What should I do? Sustainable Interventions Spatial Analysis. Empirical data Model & Data Updates. Validation Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Evidence of Climate Change at the Global level? Warmest 12 years: 1990, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2015/2016, 2019? Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Further evidence of climate change- The Sea Level • Average ocean tempt has increased. • Ocean warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise. • There has been observed sea level rise from the 19 th to the 20 th century. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Is there any Evidence of Climate change in E. Africa? About 82 % of the icecap that covered Mt Kilimanjaro surveyed in 1912 is now gone. If the recession continues at the present rate, the majority of the glaciers on Kilimanjaro could vanish in the next 15 -20 years Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN E. AFRICA? Climate change signals have been evidenced in EA. Ø Increase in temperature; Ø Decreasing and erratic rainfall trends; Ø Melting and retreat of mountain glaciers eg on Mt Kenya, Mt KLM; Ø Increasing frequency of extreme climate events including floods, droughts, frost, hail SOME OF THE ABOVE HAVE ALSO BEEN EVIDENCED IN TEA AREAS Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Rainfall Trends in a major Tea zone (Kericho-TRI, Kenya) 2016 - 1933 mm 2017 - 1954 mm 2018 - 2319 mm Annual Rainfall in mm (1958 -2015)- Casual look- trends not very predictable. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Detailed review of rainfall Trends in a major Tea zone (Kericho-TRI, Kenya) There is an annual decrease of 4. 82 mm. Over a period of 52 years, Rainfall decreased by more than 250 mm. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Rainfall Trends in the major Tea growing region of Kericho, Kenya There is a rainfall decrease of 65 mm (R² = 0. 803) for every ten-year period on average Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Trends in Soil water deficits in a major tea zone- Kericho, Kenya Soil is getting drier Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED 2018 - -347. 9 mm Transforming Lives

Trends in Temperature in a major Tea Area- Kericho There is a general increase of temperature Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Detailed review of trends in Temperature in a major Tea Area. Kericho 2016 - 17. 5 o. C 2017 - 17. 1 o. C 2018 - 17. 0 o. C There is an annual rise of 0. 0160 C (R² = 0. 331) over a period of 52 years Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Change in Mean air temperature over decades in Kericho 16. 6 Temperature (0 C) 16. 4 16. 2 16 R 2 = 0. 8524 15. 8 15. 6 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 Years §There is an average rise of 0. 20 C (R² = 0. 852) for every ten-year period §This is a temperature increase of 10 C over the 50 year period. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Magnitude of change in Kenyas’ major Tea areas REGION TREND MAGNITUDE (T max) Western Central Increase 0. 5 – 2. 1 C 0. 1 - 0. 7 C Increase (T min) 0. 8 -2. 9 C 0. 8 - 2. 0 C Western Central Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Annual Mean maximum tempt. , Bushenyi, S. W. Uganda Tempt. started rising after mid 1980 s; Similar trend has been observed for Min. Tempt Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Annual Mean maximum tempt. Lushoto, N. Tanzania Tempt. started rising after early 1990 s; Similar trend has been observed for Min. Tempt Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Total Annual Rainfall, Lushoto, N. Tanzania Rainfall has consistently been below normal since the mid 1980 s Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Annual Mean maximum tempt. , Rungwe, S. Tanzania Tempt. started rising in the mid 1980 s; Similar trend has been observed for Min. Tempt Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Total Annual Rainfall, Rungwe, S. Tanzania Rainfall has consistently been below normal since 1980 Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Annual Mean maximum temperature, Giswati, Rwanda Tempt. started rising after mid 1980 s; Similar trend has been observed for Min. Tempt Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Total Annual Rainfall, Giswati, Rwanda There is no indication of change in rainfall trend Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Is there effect of CC? The Kenyan situation: Total tea production has continued to increase due to Expan. & Techn. 1963 Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Effect of weather phenomena on Total production and average yields in Kenya Mild-Strong El Nino Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Average Tea Productivity in Kenya and on a Research (TRI) Farm Research and National productivity are correlated. Research yields can be used to extrapolate national productivity trends Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Mean air temperature and tea yields at Timbilil, TRI SWD Except for Jan-April when water is limited, increase in tempt. results in increase in production. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Effect of Tempt on National production in Kenya Increasing tempt. Results in higher production Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Effect of water on Tea Yields • In Kericho, Yield decreases linearly with increase in SWD • Critical SWD is 120 mm • Seasonal SVPD affects yields • Soil Water is the limiting factor for production Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Current suitability map of tea production areas in Kenya According to the MAXENT model, most suitable areas for tea are concentrated in the higher areas of : Meru, Embu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murangá, Kiambu, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Narok, Migori and Homa Bay. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Future suitability of tea production areas based on climate trends: 2020 In 2020 suitable areas start shifting but the average suitability in all districts remain nearly constant. Productivity too remains almost the same and tea quality will be maintained. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Future suitability of tea production areas based on climate trends: 2050 In 2050 tea production according to its climatesuitability is predicted to be more concentrated in Central Kenya. Productivity marginally decrease in West of Rift Valley. Tea quality in the west would also be compromised. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Relationship of suitability & altitude • With progressive CC, areas at higher altitudes benefit on tea -suitability • Optimum tea areas-are currently at an altitude of 1500 - 2100 masl • By 2050: Similar shifts are expected in the rest of Africa Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED • suitability will increase to an altitude between 2000 and 2300 masl • areas at altitudes between 1400 and 1900 masl will suffer the highest decrease in suitability • areas around 2300 masl will have the highest increase in suitability • Overall total production will stabilize or decrease since suitable areas will shrink Transforming Lives

Other Extreme Weather Phenomena- eg HAIL cause significant crop losses –(Hail in Kenya can cause crop loss of up to an average of 2 m kg Mt/yr) Hail is unpredictable. The number of incidences and intensity vary year to Year. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

FROST- associated with dry weather conditions: damage is exacerbated by high Fertilizer rates; incidences are increasing Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Modification of the tea microclimate- Shade and shelter can mitigate against damage from extreme whether events such as sun scorch, frost and hail and improve physical and chemical properties Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Rationalised Tea Breeding to manage abiotic and biotic stress Breeding stocks and their expected genetic contribution in the breeding programme Diversification of the choice of tea cultivars in plantations (Genetic buffering) & deployment of drought and heat tolerant cultivars Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

GAP can contribute to soil moisture conservation (i) Judicious use of inputs eg optimal rates of fertilizer, microdosing, (ii) Mulching, (iii) optimal pruning, (iv) micro-catchments, (v) weed management etc Water content decreases with increased fertilizer and soil depth. Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Practical sustainable intervention strategies Implement 3 Pillars of Climate Smart Agriculture; Adaptation, mitigation and reduction of Carbon emissions (C foot print) by: • Efficient management of soil and water resources -Precision farming and Judicious use of inputs • Catchment & riverbank protection • Environmental conservation and Sustainable management of forests including reforestation. • Crop diversification • Development and growing of low water demand (drought resistant) cultivars/varieties • Identification of alternate sources of energy (wind, solar, hydro) • Rain water harvesting and irrigation • Consideration of crop insurances Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

The Way Forward The following long term measures should also be implemented • • • § • • Devt. & Implementation of comprehensive climate change programmes – with clear Strategies, policies, and projects Crop improvement programmes targeting devt of stress tolerant and widely adapted tea cultivars Explore opportunities to participate in the carbon market Continuous data and information collection and systematic analysis of weather patterns in Tea growing Zones including modeling and forcasting Closer collaboration with the private sector in resource mobilisation to support CC adaptation activities Capacity building focused on awareness creation and farmer education Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives

Sustainability- Succession- Guaranteeing future supply lines? A competitive & sustainable Tea sub-sector Bequeathing future generations (Increased productivity, sustainability, access to input and output markets, supporting and enabling policies) Arid to Green ISO 2009: 2015 CERTIFIED Transforming Lives 41

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