Tax policy during a resource boom Rob Heferen

Tax policy during a resource boom Rob Heferen Executive Director, Revenue Group • 4 September 2012

Global transformation underway Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, Maddison (2010), IMF World Economic Outlook Database and Treasury.

World GDP projections Note: Purchasing power parity adjusted GDP. ASEAN-5 comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Thailand Vietnam. Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, Maddison (2007), IMF World Economic Outlook Database, World Bank, OECD, United Nations Population Database and Treasury.

Australia’s terms of trade 180 (Index 1900 -01 to 1999 -00 = 100) Index 180 160 140 5 -year centered moving average 120 100 80 80 60 1869 -70 Budget forecasts/ projections 1894 -95 1919 -20 Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5204. 0, RBA and Treasury. 1944 -45 1969 -70 1994 -95 60 2019 -20

Mining share of investment Source: 2012 -13 Budget Paper One, Statement Five

Projections of the global middle class by region Note: The global middle class is defined as those households with daily expenditures between USD 10 and USD 100 person in purchasing power parity terms. The lower bound is chosen with reference to the average poverty line in Portugal and Italy. Source: Kharas, H, 2010, ‘The emerging middle class in developing countries’, OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No. 285.

GDP per capita (Per cent of OECD -15 average) 120 Per cent 120 Australia 100 Japan 80 80 60 60 South Korea 40 40 Malaysia 20 20 China 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 India 2005 Note: OECD-15 = Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, US and Canada. Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database and Treasury. 0 2010

Employment share by industry Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6291. 0. 55. 003 and Treasury

Corporate tax in Australia (1980 -present) Source: Business Tax Working Group Discussion Paper 13 August 2012