Target setting in the next programming period Schematic

Target setting in the next programming period Schematic examples TÓTH Gábor DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Evaluation and Impact Assessment Unit ESF Evaluation Partnership meeting, 9 June, Brussels 1

What do the examples want to show? • What are the usual steps that lead to setting the target? • What is an ‚assumption’ in the methodology? • Calculus based on the type-of-action level or else? • Rounding • COVID factor – revision clauses 2

What do the examples not show? Disclaimers • What is acceptable: the examples are not guidance • Level of detail, depth of information • Specific treatment to the uncertainty due to COVID • Values: fictitious 3

What are the usual steps? • Historical evidence • In case of result indicator: reference value • Assumptions • Estimations • Usually unit cost or success rate 4

What is an assumption? • You assess the applicability of the historical evidence • If necessary, you adjust that evidence: you assume the future will be different • You motivate the adjustment The unit cost and the success rate as such are not an assumption 5

Make assumptions explicit • The better assumptions, the more informative the target • You will be able to better tell • in programme amendments: why the target has to be amended • in evaluations: what the achievement ratio implies • Thanks to better differentiation between external factors and implementation issues 6

Calculus based on type-of-action level or else? • 3 rd example vs 2 nd: intensity of support by target group vs. type-of-action • 2 nd example: not any (explicit) target at the level of the type-of-action The more flexibility the better 7

Rounding is good! 8

COVID factor 3 scenarios a) Detailed assumptions • The uncertainty is treated within the assumptions b) Fewer assumptions and revision clause • Assumptions reviewed on condition of external factors c) General revision after two years Other scenarios? 9