TANZANIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 202021 RAINFALL SEASON Tanzania
- Slides: 17
TANZANIA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 2020/21 RAINFALL SEASON Tanzania Meteorological Authority Happiness Mpunza Irene Kalumbete Ludovick Adosi Ramadhani Omary
Outline • Drivers over country’s climate • Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • • • OND Model Hit Skills Score OND Model(s) Forecast OND Consensus NDJ Model Hit Skills Score NDJ Model(s) Forecast NDJ Consensus DJF Model Hit Skills Score DJF Model(s) Forecast DJF Consensus JFM Model Hit Skills Score JFM Model(s) Forecast JFM Consensus • Summary of Consensus
Drivers over country’s climate § Quazi-permanent systems (ITCZ, NET etc); § Mid-latitude features, such as frontal systems; § Mesoscale convective systems (Tropical cyclones); § Congo air-mass; § Wind systems (trades, jets etc); § Mesoscale circulations – Topography, sea/Lake and Land breezes, vegetation etc; § Wave disturbances (easterly/westerly –wave perturbations etc); § Large-scale Tele-connections (SSTs, ENSO, QBO); § Intra-seasonal Oscillations such as Madden-Jullien (40 – 50 days), IODs
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December Models Hit Skill Scores
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December 2020 Models Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • October-November-December 2020 Consensus Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January Models Hit Skill Scores
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January 2020/21 Models Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • November-December-January 2020/21 Consensus Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February Models Hit Skill Scores
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2020/21 Models Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • December-January-February 2020/21 Consensus Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March Models Hit Skill Scores
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Models Outlook
Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season • January-February-March 2021 Consensus Outlook
Summary Consensus Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season OND 2020 DJF 2020/21 NDJ 2020/21 JFM 2021
Asante Thank You Merci Obrigado For more information please visit out website. Website: http: //www. meteo. go. tz/