Tackling the 3 Rs Resourcing Recruitment and Retention

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Tackling the 3 Rs: Resourcing, Recruitment and Retention Natalie Perera Executive Director, Education Policy

Tackling the 3 Rs: Resourcing, Recruitment and Retention Natalie Perera Executive Director, Education Policy Institute

The social mobility challenge 2

The social mobility challenge 2

The overall attainment gap is narrowing…………. . slowly The national attainment gap 30 25

The overall attainment gap is narrowing…………. . slowly The national attainment gap 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Early Years Primary school (yr 2/Ks 1) Primary school (yr 6/Ks 2) Secondary school Persistently disadvantaged (primary) Persistently disadvantaged (secondary) 2016 3

When does the disadvantage gap develop? ≈ 2/5 secondary § The gap at age

When does the disadvantage gap develop? ≈ 2/5 secondary § The gap at age 5 (EYFSP) is around 40% of the total size reached by age 16 (GCSE) § It grows less during primary school, despite this being a longer stage ≈ 2/5 early years ≈ 1/5 primary Early years KS 1 KS 2 KS 3 & KS 4 § Another two fifths of the gap emerge during secondary school 4

The gap exists everywhere, but it varies from place to place Early years Primary

The gap exists everywhere, but it varies from place to place Early years Primary Secondary 5

Opportunity Areas are targeted at areas of need, but the problem of large disadvantage

Opportunity Areas are targeted at areas of need, but the problem of large disadvantage gaps is much wider Opportunity Areas Secondary gaps (light green = largest) 6

Schools with larger proportions of disadvantaged pupils are closing the gap faster than more

Schools with larger proportions of disadvantaged pupils are closing the gap faster than more affluent schools Primary Schools Secondary Schools 7

RESOURCING: The funding context and challenges 8

RESOURCING: The funding context and challenges 8

There is increasing pressure on school budgets § Primary and secondary school spending increased

There is increasing pressure on school budgets § Primary and secondary school spending increased by over 50 per cent between 2000 -01 and 2009 -10. § But spending per pupil, including 6 th forms, fell by 8 per cent in real terms between 200910 and 2016 -17. + 50% - 8%% Source: IFS 2018, ‘Annual report on education spending in England’, September 2018 9

Funding for children’s services is also falling § Total spending on children’s services doubled

Funding for children’s services is also falling § Total spending on children’s services doubled in real terms over the 2000 s, growing from around £ 4. 8 billion in 2000– 01 to £ 9. 7 billion in 2009– 10. § But it then fell in real terms by about 11% between 2009– 10 and 2017– 18. If this pace of cuts continues to 2019– 20, it would lead to a total fall in real terms of 14% over the decade. + 50% - 11% - 4% Source: Children’s Commissioner 2018, ‘Public spending on children in England’, June 2018 10

More schools with deficit balances, even more with in-year deficits § Almost a third

More schools with deficit balances, even more with in-year deficits § Almost a third of LA maintained secondary schools are now in deficit – a sharp increase since 2014 when that figure stood at just over 8 per cent. § The picture for primary and special schools is much lower – at 8 and 10 per cent respectively. Percentage of LA schools in deficit since 2011 35. 0% 30. 0% 25. 0% 20. 0% 15. 0% 10. 0% 5. 0% 0. 0% 2011 2012 2013 Primary 2014 2015 Secondary 2016 Special 2017 2018 Source: J. Andrews ‘School revenue balances in England’ , January 2019 11

Yorkshire and Humber has the highest proportion of secondary schools in deficit § Yorkshire

Yorkshire and Humber has the highest proportion of secondary schools in deficit § Yorkshire and Humber has the highest proportion of maintained secondary schools in deficit – rising from 11. 7% in 2010 -11 to nearly 40 per cent in 2017 -18. § The East of England has the lowest proportion but has nevertheless seen a significant increase since 2010: from 4. 5% in 2010 -11 to 21. 3% in 2017 -18. Percentage of LA secondary schools in deficit by region 45. 0% 40. 0% 35. 0% 30. 0% 25. 0% 20. 0% 15. 0% 10. 0% 5. 0% 0. 0% 2011 2012 2013 East Midlands London North West South West 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 East of England North East South East West Midlands 12

The allocation of the teacher pay grant is likely to benefit smaller schools with

The allocation of the teacher pay grant is likely to benefit smaller schools with a more affluent intake Allocating the pay grant based on pupil numbers results in around 6% of schools receiving 25% less funding than they need, with disadvantaged most affected. 13

RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION 14

RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION 14

The number of teachers has not kept pace with the number of pupils §

The number of teachers has not kept pace with the number of pupils § Pupil numbers up by 10 per cent since 2010 while teacher numbers have been steady. Increase in PTR from 15. 5 to around 17. § Teacher exit rates have also increased, only 60 per cent of teachers remain in state-funded schools five years after qualifying. Source: L Sibieta, ‘The teacher labour market in England’, August 2018 15

Considerable variation in ‘highly-qualified’ teachers between different subjects § Under half of teachers in

Considerable variation in ‘highly-qualified’ teachers between different subjects § Under half of teachers in mathematics and physics hold a degree in those subjects. These areas are also those with the greatest recruitment and retention challenges. § Social gradient to likelihood of being taught by a teacher with a degree in the subject. Source: L Sibieta, ‘The teacher labour market in England’, August 2018 16

Considerable variation in ‘highly-qualified’ teachers between different subjects § Specialist teachers tend to be

Considerable variation in ‘highly-qualified’ teachers between different subjects § Specialist teachers tend to be highest in London and neighbouring counties. § They tend to be lowest in East Anglia, the South Coast, Welsh borders and fringe areas of Birmingham. Source: L Sibieta, ‘The teacher labour market in England’, August 2018 17

Can a curriculum-based funding approach help? §. 18

Can a curriculum-based funding approach help? §. 18

The twin challenges of funding and workforce – the level of spend on teachers

The twin challenges of funding and workforce – the level of spend on teachers means the two go hand in hand § Expenditure on teachers accounts for around half of all school spending – over £ 20 bn each year. § Discussion of efficiency needs to include teaching workforce, but that raises issues such as class sizes and workload. Source: EPI analysis of Consistent Financial Reporting and Academies Account Returns 19

The twin challenges of funding and workforce – the role of integrated curriculum financial

The twin challenges of funding and workforce – the role of integrated curriculum financial planning § At the individual school or academy trust level a combined approach to curriculum and financial planning can yield significant savings, ensuring a workforce that has the right number and right mix of teachers. § At the system level, a fully efficient deployment would ‘release’ teachers to the system. Can we get them to where they are most needed? 20

Integrated planning – what staffing mix do we need to deliver the curriculum we

Integrated planning – what staffing mix do we need to deliver the curriculum we want to deliver? Df. E’s top 10 planning checks for governors published earlier this year includes several things that are relevant: § The pupil teacher ratio (PTR) – how many pupils are there to each teach in the school and how this varies across different key stages; § Class sizes § Contact ratio – the percentage of a teacher’s time that is spent teaching. A very simplified approach enables us to combine those factors to calculate the number of teachers we need 1000 pupils, class size of 25, contact ratio 0. 78 => 51. 3 teachers 21

Integrated planning – what if we applied that simple approach across all secondary schools?

Integrated planning – what if we applied that simple approach across all secondary schools? Applying those assumptions to pupil and teacher numbers across all c. 3, 000 secondary schools would imply that: § Almost all schools have more teachers than they need § These ratios could be achieved with 20 per cent fewer teachers § Nationally, saving would be equivalent to 40, 000 FTE teachers or approximately £ 2 bn But of course, it’s not really that simple. Source: EPI analysis of Df. E ‘Compare school performance’ workforce data 2016/2017 22

Integrated planning – why those key factors are just a starting point A number

Integrated planning – why those key factors are just a starting point A number of limitations to that simplified analysis and why it’s difficult to jump from national datasets to the realities of managing a school: § Are there groups of pupils that require smaller class sizes? § Are there subjects that require smaller class sizes, or ones that we are happy to have smaller class sizes if it means we can run them? § How do we structure middle and senior leadership roles, what proportion of their time is spent in the classroom or is it all on management? § Do we have the right teachers with the right skills to deliver this offer? § What about non-teaching staff costs, in particular around TAs and other pastoral care? There is no set, prescriptive way of doing this. Talking to MATs we saw a variety of approaches. 23

What next? §. 24

What next? §. 24

What next for policy and research? § Df. E teacher recruitment and retention strategy

What next for policy and research? § Df. E teacher recruitment and retention strategy likely to be published by the end of January § Spending Review now likely to be in Autumn 2019 § EPI research over the next year will include: § Scrutinising pupil movement in and out of schools § Analysing trends in teacher pay and qualifications across the contry § Long term patterns of expenditure within schools and by local authorities § Benchmarking efficiency at school and trust level § Analysing the impact of the National Funding Formula § Trends in curriculum offer and take up 25