Systems Thinking and Food Security Dr Alex Arnall

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Systems Thinking and Food Security Dr Alex Arnall Reading IFSTAL Principal Investigator and Dr

Systems Thinking and Food Security Dr Alex Arnall Reading IFSTAL Principal Investigator and Dr Harley Pope Reading IFSTAL Educational Coordinator #IFSTAL

What are the food system challenges? To achieve food security for a growing, wealthier,

What are the food system challenges? To achieve food security for a growing, wealthier, urbanising population while minimising further environmental degradation against a background of Ø natural resource depletion and Ø many stagnating rural economies and Ø changing climate and Ø social and socio-cultural changes

Human systems are: 1. Global in scope 2. Dispersed and interlinked 3. Complex 4.

Human systems are: 1. Global in scope 2. Dispersed and interlinked 3. Complex 4. Reflect patterns of socioeconomic inequality

‘Tame’ problems: complicated but solvable • Well-defined and stable problem statement • Definite stopping

‘Tame’ problems: complicated but solvable • Well-defined and stable problem statement • Definite stopping point • Solutions can be: – Objectively evaluated – Solutions can be generalised to similar problems – Tried and abandoned

‘Tame’ problems: complicated but solvable • Well-defined and stable problem statement • Definite stopping

‘Tame’ problems: complicated but solvable • Well-defined and stable problem statement • Definite stopping point • Solutions can be: – Objectively evaluated – Solutions can be generalised to similar problems – Tried and abandoned When n% of plants survive under a particular set of abnormally dry circumstances

‘Wicked’ problems: complex and intractable • Solutions are poorly-defined and contested, thus commonly defying

‘Wicked’ problems: complex and intractable • Solutions are poorly-defined and contested, thus commonly defying attempts at resolution • Transcend disciplinary, organisational, institutional, and geo-political boundaries

‘Super-wicked’ problems. . ? • Time is running out • No central authority •

‘Super-wicked’ problems. . ? • Time is running out • No central authority • Those seeking to solve the problem might also be contributing to it • Policies discount the future irrationally

Overfishing • Major food producing activity • 90 million tonnes wild capture per year

Overfishing • Major food producing activity • 90 million tonnes wild capture per year • Integrated into global food systems • Fish: livelihood, dietary and culture significance • Up to 85% of world’s fisheries over-exploited / depleted or recovering

Tackling overfishing Three possible strategies: 1. Authoritative: enforcement of laws 2. Competitive: consumer awareness

Tackling overfishing Three possible strategies: 1. Authoritative: enforcement of laws 2. Competitive: consumer awareness 3. Collaborative: awareness in fishing industry

1. Unexpected / unwanted outcomes • Lose sight of the bigger picture • Particular

1. Unexpected / unwanted outcomes • Lose sight of the bigger picture • Particular solutions, when implemented, can cause problems elsewhere in the system

2. Incomplete knowledge Fishing – population dynamics Impacts on fishing communities Fishing stock recovery

2. Incomplete knowledge Fishing – population dynamics Impacts on fishing communities Fishing stock recovery Cultural attitudes towards seafood Adapted from: Leach, M. , Scoones, I. , & Stirling, A. (2010). Dynamic sustainabilities: technology, environment, social justice. Earthscan.

3. Power dimensions • Tackling complex problems is essentially a political process… • …Something

3. Power dimensions • Tackling complex problems is essentially a political process… • …Something often denied or downplayed • Reliance on bureaucratic, rationalist decision-making frameworks • Exclusion of groups from decision-making processes

What is a System? • System – ‘a complex whole of related parts’ •

What is a System? • System – ‘a complex whole of related parts’ • Systems Thinking – Thinking about thinking – The consideration of something in its totality, its interaction with the wider environment, while also considering its constituent parts and their interactions • Systems Methods – Includes concepts, frameworks and methods that support our ability to think systemically in different contexts

A Representation of a Food System

A Representation of a Food System

System Properties • Systems can have levels • System parts can be ‘nested’ in

System Properties • Systems can have levels • System parts can be ‘nested’ in each other • Individual agents or system parts can aggregate to form patterns of behaviour such as selforganisation and new functions - emergence

System Dynamics System behaviours can form patterns: – – Fixed Periodic Complex Chaotic (random)

System Dynamics System behaviours can form patterns: – – Fixed Periodic Complex Chaotic (random)

A Representation of a Food System

A Representation of a Food System

Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) • Systems with multiple elements adapting or reacting to the

Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) • Systems with multiple elements adapting or reacting to the patterns these elements create • Interesting properties of CASs: – Time / Distance separation of outcomes – Path Dependence – Resilience – Tipping Points (selforganised criticality)

Nine Meals From Anarchy • New Economics Foundation (NEF) report • Average person in

Nine Meals From Anarchy • New Economics Foundation (NEF) report • Average person in UK has three days of food available • ‘Just in time’ supply chain management: – Minimises waste – Maximises profit • BUT: – Assumes tomorrow largely same as today – Dependent on functional transport system, electricity & oil Source: Simms, A. (2008). Nine Meals from Anarchy: Oil Depletion, Climate Change and the Transition to Resilience. Schumacher Lecture.

Analysing Systems • The literature on systems thinking is well established and vast •

Analysing Systems • The literature on systems thinking is well established and vast • A simplified synthesis exists! DSRP

Distinctions, Systems, Relationships & Perspectives (DSRP) • We can consider systems through four interrelated

Distinctions, Systems, Relationships & Perspectives (DSRP) • We can consider systems through four interrelated patterns of thinking • DSRP stands for: – – Distinctions Systems Relationships Perspectives Source: Cabrera, D. & Colosi, L. (2008). Distinctions, systems, relationships, and perspectives (DSRP): A theory of thinking and of things Evaluation and Program Planning, Volume 31, Issue 3, August 2008, Pages 311 -317

DSRP 4 Interrelated Patterns of Thinking. . . Consisting of 2 contrasting Framing Questions

DSRP 4 Interrelated Patterns of Thinking. . . Consisting of 2 contrasting Framing Questions elements. . . Making Distinctions identity �other • What is ___ ? • What is not ___? Organising Systems parts �whole • Does ___ have parts? • Can you think of ___ as a part? Recognising Relationships cause �effect • Is ___ related to ___? • Can you think of ___ as a relationship? Taking Perspectives point �view • From the perspective of _____, [insert question]? • Can you think about ______ from a different perspective? Adapted from: Cabrera, D. and Colosi, L. (2009) Thinking at Every Desk: How Four Simple Thinking Skills Will Transform Your Teaching, Classroom, School, and District. Ithaca, NY: The Research Institute for Thinking in Education.

Food Waste - Distinctions • Definitions – What it is and what it isn’t

Food Waste - Distinctions • Definitions – What it is and what it isn’t (boundaries)

Food Waste - Systems • Who is creating it? Where is it created?

Food Waste - Systems • Who is creating it? Where is it created?

Food Waste - Relationships • How, why and when is waste being generated? •

Food Waste - Relationships • How, why and when is waste being generated? • Who bears the cost? Can it be distributed?

Food Waste - Perspectives • To what extent is waste a problem? • How

Food Waste - Perspectives • To what extent is waste a problem? • How do individuals, groups and organisations see it? • Is food waste linked to other problems?

Doing Systems Thinking • There is no definitive vision of the food system to

Doing Systems Thinking • There is no definitive vision of the food system to discover • When looking at systems we have to deal with incomplete knowledge, power dynamics and different perspectives • We use systems thinking to enhance our understanding through uncovering relationships and identifying opportunities to intervene and communicate • Systems methodologies can help us apply our systems thinking