SYRIAN CIVIL WAR THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS

SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS Faten Ghosn, Ph. D fghosn@email. arizona. edu School of Government and Public Policy

OUTLINE • Three Main Goals: – Domestic, regional and international factors that facilitated the civil war and how they differentiate Syria from Egypt and Tunis. – The main powerful rebel groups on the ground. – Spillover effect into neighboring countries. School of Government and Public Policy

DOMESTIC, REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL FACTORS • Domestic – Failed Economic Liberalization; Impact of Sanctions; Dominance of Gulf Capital; Housing Crisis – Decline in subsidies to the population- 20% unemployment & 14% living in poverty (UNDP 2010) – Repression – Revival of Islamists in 2004 – Attacks/Assassinations/Bombings/Clashes with militant groups: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009; Political leaders as well as Moderate Religious clerics were being targeted • Regional – Iraq War 2003 – Failed Israeli-Syrian Peace Process – Withdrawal from Lebanon, and accusations of assassinations – Arab Cold War: Sunni/Moderate Axis vs Shiite/Resistance Axis • International – “War on Terror” & Deterioration of US-SYR Relations School of Government and Public Policy

MAIN DIFFERENCES School of Government and Public Policy

MAIN REBEL GROUPS • Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL/ISIS) ( )ﺩﺍﻋﺶ • Al Nusra Front ( )ﺟﺒﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﺮﺓ • Islamic Front ( )ﺍﻟﺠﺒﻬﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ • Revolutionary Front of Syria ( )ﺟﺒﻬﺔ ﺛﻮﺍﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ • Syria Military Command/Free Syrian Army ( ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ / )ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺶ ﺍﻟﺤﺮ School of Government and Public Policy

School of Government and Public Policy

SPILLOVER: LEBANON • Political Impact—Tensions in forming Cabinet and Electing President. • Security Impact—Car bombs, suicide attacks, clashes with security forces. • Economic Impact—Loss of over 8 billion in tourism and 28 million in trade. • Refugees—Over 1 million registered refugees (27% of Lebanese Population). School of Government and Public Policy

SPILLOVER: JORDAN • Political Impact— Increase in tensions; several protests breaking out. • Security Impact—Clashes on border, smuggling and arms trafficking. • Economic Impact—High Unemployment, escalating rents and the rising prices of basic goods. • Refugees– 600, 000 registered refugees (10% of Jordan’s population). School of Government and Public Policy

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