Syria and Chemical Weapons Building a World Free
Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD Paul F. Walker, Ph. D. Director, Security & Sustainability Green Cross International Washington DC, USA George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia October 16, 2013 1
Alleged CW Use in Syria n n n July 23, 2012 – Syria confirms CW December 23 – Homs attack, 7 killed March 19, 2013 – Aleppo & Damascus March 24 – Adra April 13 – Aleppo April 29 – Saraqeb
Syria’s CWC Accession n August 21, 2013 – Large scale CW attack in Ghouta region. 1, 400+ killed, including 400 children. September 14 – Syria accedes to CWC October 14 – CWC enters into force for Syria as 190 th State Party 3
World War I n Over 1 million injured by gas attacks, and some 90, 000 killed 4
Chemical Weapons Threats n n n Iran-Iraq War Iraq attack on Halabja in 1988 1991 Gulf War 1995 Tokyo subway attack Ongoing terrorist threats of WMD Syria 2012 -2013 5
8 Declared CW Stockpiles n n n n n Russia USA India South Korea Libya Albania Iraq Syria TOTAL 40, 000 metric tons 28, 600 metric tons 1, 000+ metric tons (est) 26+ metric tons 16 metric tons na 1, 000 metric tons (est) 72, 500 +/- metric tons 6
Declared U. S. CW Stockpile: 31, 495 US tons (9 stockpile sites in 8 states and Johnston Atoll) Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Hermiston, Oregon (12%) Newport Chemical Depot Newport, Indiana (4%) Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Tooele, Utah (44%) Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Newport, Indiana (4%) Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Edgewood, Maryland (5%) Pueblo Chemical Depot Pueblo, Colorado (8%) Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System South Pacific (6%) Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%) Facility Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%) Blue Grass Army Depot Richmond, Kentucky (2%) Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Anniston, Alabama (7%) 7
Declared R. F. CW Stockpile: 40, 000 tons (7 stockpiles in 5 Oblasts and the Udmurt Republic) 8
Shchuch’ye Chemical Weapons 9
Shchuch’ye Stockpile 10
Chemical Weapons Convention n n Entered into force in 1997 190 States Parties CW stockpiles destroyed by 2012 Inspection of commercial industry Five-year Rev. Cons 2003, 2008, & 2013 11
CW Destruction in US n n n 1990 – present 25, 650 MT destroyed (90%) 7 stockpiles closed $25 billion+ spent to date 10 more years to go 2 facilities under construction 12
CW Destruction in Russia n n n 2002 – present 30, 400 MT destroyed (76%) 2 stockpiles neutralized $7+ billion spent to date 3 -6+ years to go 13
Other CWD Progress n n n Albania – 16 MT destroyed (100%) 2007 South Korea – 1, 000+ MT destroyed (100%) 2008 India – 1, 000+ MT destroyed (100%) 2009 Libya – 23 +/- MT destroyed (88%) (excl. Sched. 2) Iraq – Declared 2009 Syria – Declared 2013 14
Russian CW Demil (est. Sept 2013) n n n n Gorny neutralized Dec 02 -Dec 05 – 1, 143 MT Kambarka neutralized Dec 05 -Apr 09 – 6, 349 MT Maradikovsky neutralized 6, 200 MT (90%) since Sept 06 (6, 890 MT total) Leonidovka neutralized 6, 200 MT (90%) since 2008 (6, 885 MT total) Shchuch’ye neutralized 4, 350 MT (80%) since March 2009 (5, 456 MT total) Pochep neutralized 4, 500 MT (60%) since November 2010 (7, 498 MT) Kizner to open late 2013 (5, 745 MT) 15
US CW Demil (Feb 2012) n n n n n Johnston Atoll – 1990 -2000, 100% destroyed Tooele – 1996 -2012, 100% destroyed Anniston – 2003 -2011, 100% destroyed Aberdeen – 2003 -2005, 100% destroyed Umatilla – 2004 -2011, 100% destroyed Pine Bluff – 2005 -2011, 100% destroyed Newport – 2005 -2008, 100% neutralized Pueblo – 2014 -2017, 0% (2, 520 tons) Blue Grass – 2018 -2021, 0% (523 tons) 16
Challenge #1 – Cost n n n US cost first estimated at $2 B Now approaching $40 B RF cost first estimated at $3 -4 B Now estimated at $10 B+ Not including nonstockpile & sea-dumped 17
Challenge #2 – Technology n n n High temperature incineration or low temperature neutralization Management of effluent toxic wastes Impacts on public health & environment 18
Challenge #3 – Emergency Preparedness n n Most communities feel ill-prepared Gas masks, plastic & duct tape distributed for “shelter in place” Early warning radios and sirens lacking Transportation for evacuation 19
Challenge #4 – Community Investment and Involvement 20
Shchuch’ye, Kurgan Oblast 21
Challenge #5 – Transparency 22
Green Cross Outreach Office n n Proactive outreach to local & regional constituencies Reactive response to all inquiries Facilitation of stakeholder involvement Empowerment of local communities 23
Community Outreach 24
Challenge #6 – CWC Deadlines n CWC stockpile destruction deadlines: n n n April 2000 – 1% of stockpiles (3 yrs after EIF) April 2002 – 20% of stockpiles (5 yrs) April 2004 – 45% of stockpiles (7 yrs) April 2007 – 100% of stockpiles (10 yrs) April 2012 – 5 -year extension (15 yrs) No possessor State Party has met all deadlines 25
CWC Deadlines (cont. ) n United States n n Met 1% (2000) and 20% (2002) deadlines Met 3 -yr extended 45% deadline (2007) Received 5 -yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012 Russian Federation n Met 3 -yr extended 1% and 5 -yr extended 20% deadlines Received 5+-yr extension for 45% deadline to December 2009 Received 5 -yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012 26
CWC Deadlines (cont. ) n n Albania – Did not request 100% extended deadline and missed April 2007 by 2 months India – Met 100% deadline extension to April 2009 (2 yr extension) South Korea – Met 100% deadline extension to December 2008 (20 -mo ext) Libya – Received 100% deadline extensions to Dec. 2010, Dec. 2011, Apr. 2012, and Dec. 2016 27
Challenge #7 – Congressional Deadline n n Congress has mandated December 2017 as final deadline for completing CWD Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): “It is no secret that DOD is going to miss the 2012 treaty deadline for weapons destruction at Pueblo. That's what happens when you drag your feet and fail to put adequate resources behind a program… This is absurd, especially with DOD's own admission that with higher funding levels they could complete destruction at Pueblo a full five years earlier than that. ” (25 Feb 08) 28
What’s to be Done? n Emphasis must be placed on the critical importance of State Parties to fully fund and implement their ongoing chemical weapons destruction programs – n n US – $400 -500 M+/yr for construction US Cooperative Threat Reduction – $50 M+/yr for CWD RF – $1 B+/yr for CW destruction G-8 Global Partnership – $100 M+/yr 29
What’s to be Done? n n n Don’t underestimate public concerns and political power – be transparent and involve stakeholders – preclude legal suits Recognize inherent tension between cost, schedule, transparency, & safety – protection of public health & environment Improve US-RF relations and move beyond recent G-8 Global Partnership differences 30
What’s to be Done? n n Promote full CWC universality Six countries n Angola n Egypt n Israel n Myanmar (Burma) n North Korea n South Sudan 31
The Challenge of Syria n n n OPCW to inspect and inventory Syrian declaration All weapons, agents, production & lab facilities destroyed Full security & safety guaranteed for inspectors & workers 32
The Challenge of Syria n n What does Syria’s CW stockpile consist of? What destruction technologies are best? Can the chemicals, agents, and weapons be moved? How much will this all cost? 33
Buried Chemical Weapons 34
Spring Valley, Washington DC 35
Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons 36
UN Resolution on SDCW n n n Notes the importance of raising public awareness of the environmental effects… Invites Member States…to cooperate and voluntarily share relevant information… Invites the Secretary-General to seek the views of Member States and relevant regional and international organizations at 68 th UN General Assembly in 2013… 37
WMDFZ in the Middle East n n n Syria’s CWC accession provides incentive for Israel & Egypt to join Also encourages all to join BWC And begin to address nuclear weapons in the Mideast – Israel & Iran 38
Green Cross International 1100 15 th Street, NW Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20005, USA +1 -202 -222 -0700 tel www. gcint. org www. globalgreen. org pwalker@globalgreen. org 39
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