Symmetric instability Sources Texts Martin p 224 228

Symmetric instability Sources: • Texts: – Martin p. 224 -228 – Holton p. 277 -281 – Lackmann does not cover this topic • Meted modules: – an operational approach to slantwise convection : highly recommended (by Kent Johnson), 28 min • Try the case exercise (location: BC) – listen to in class: heavy banded snow (by J. Moore), 34 min • This is a survey of conveyor belts, trowal, and (in section 3) symmetric instability – CSI pitfalls: the use and misuse of CSI : more advanced (by David Schultz), 33 min • Required reading material • Real-time charts (PV and SI): – Canadian maps (chart description) he’s dead Jim – SPC meso-analysis, click on winter weather

Symmetric instability outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. examples static and inertial instability SI as inertial instability on isentropic surfaces basic state energy release in an SI exchange a computational method to determine SI (PV)

Example 1 What causes this precip?

N. Dakota S. Dakota

Example 2 E. Nebraska

Jet M PSI?

relative humidity (%)

relative humidity (%) Jet 0 PV min 0 pvor (thte, wnd)

Example 3 (Schumacher et al. 2015) 700 mb, 21 UTC on 16 Feb

Example 3 (Schumacher et al. 2015) Simulated composite radar reflectivity (d. BZ, color shading), 700 -h. Pa potential temperature (red contours every 2 K), 700 -h. Pa frontogenesis [thick black contours in K (100 km)− 1 h− 1, 700 -h. Pa PV (negative values shaded in gray where the environment is statically stable), 700 -h. Pa wind barbs 21 UTC on 16 Feb potential temperature (thin solid contours every 4 K), potential vorticity (negative values shaded in PVU), frontogenesis [thick dashed lines every 5 K (100 km)− 1 h− 1 above 5], and simulated reflectivity (the 0 and 5 -d. BZ contours are shown in blue) SW NE

Banded precipitation • Single- and multiple-banded clouds and precipitation are common, esp. in frontal systems • They are often aligned with the thickness contours (thermal wind) and occur where they are tightly packed. • possible cause: symmetric instability with moisture (PSI/MSI/CSI) • PSI and frontogenesis commonly co-exit • – – PSI requires EPV<0 frontogenetic circulation requires (geostrophic) PV>0 (ellipticity condition for Sawyer-Eliassen eqn) SI is often ‘blamed’ a posteriori, it is not prognosed well (b/o inadequate model-resolution)

Condition for moist or potential SI (MSI): qe lines steeper than M lines or: dqe/dz < 0 along M lines or: d. M/dx <0 along qe lines PV (EPV) or: equivalent PV (EPV) < 0 But: MSI only occurs if the atmosphere is potentially and inertially stable Rimoist Emanuel (1983) Example: note: the condition for conditional instability: dqe*/dz <0

MSI: an intuitive explanation M = absolute zonal momentum 30 dqe/dz>0 40 M = fy-ug d. M/dy>0 60 70 see also: Jim Moore’s meted module on frontogenetic circulations & stability)

Potential Symmetric INstability Potential Symmetric Stability - dash: qe solid: Mg - - - solid: qe dash: Mg

YBR (Brandon, Manitoba) s cros ion sect Jet ATY (Waterton South Dakota) Where does MSI occur? EPVg

Also important for the effective release of the instability: moisture Overlay RH EPVg And frontogenesis … why? Mapping PI, PSI, frontogenesis, and RH 900 -700 mb EPVg

Characteristics of bands due to the release of MSI 1. Two-dimensional, aligned nearly along thermal wind. 2. Condition for MSI is met in the region of the bands. 3. This region should be close to saturation. MSI by itself is not a sufficient condition for banded precip. MSI is ubiquitous, as is upright PI. We need qe to be close to qe*, or RH close to 100%. 4. Bands should move at the speed of the flow at the level of MSI, in the cross-band direction. 5. Spacing of bands is proportional to the depth of unstable layer/slope of moist isentropes. 6. Ascent should be nearly along the moist adiabats.

Bandedness vs MSI • • Byrd 1989: 27 events in OK-KS 80% of banded cases had EPV<0 and high RH • • • Xu 1992: numerical study Initial EPV anomaly small: Single band develops Frontal boundary • • Initial EPV anomaly larger: Multiple bands develop

MSI predictability • Bands ~ 5 -40 km wide, spacing ~twice that much • grid spacings of at most 10 km are required to capture the most unstable MSI mode (Knight and Hobbs 1988, Persson and Warner 1993) • mesoscale models, incl the current ETA (12 km), should be able to capture most MSI-induced circulations (as well as frontogenetical flow) • Even high-resolution models tend to underpredict the rainfall variability, and also the integrated amount of rainfall

Conclusion: some words of caution about CI • The existence of SI alone is not sufficient to initiate convection (need moisture) • SI is not a forcing mechanism for slantwise ascent over a front (frontogenesis is … SI leads to slantwise convection within the frontogenetic circulation) • The terms slantwise convection and SI are not interchangeable • Upright convection always prevails over slantwise convection