SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats PRT ferry

SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats PRT “ferry” across Montague Expressway Connecting the BART transit hub and high-density housing to the new K-8 school, sport fields, and additional housing.

SWOT Analysis W S O High ROI, low risk Timing is right Environmentally sound Promote the Citywide PRT for free? Potential BART circulator Potential traffic solution Lead the U. S. Annual O&M Educating bureacrats Lack of Council support T Stakeholder resistance Polluter resistance Unique PRT system

Milpitas: Ready for PRT S 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. High-return, low-risk investment Start project now, not later Pay less than $9 M POC Local oversight and certification ASTM standards for design/testing Prudent test of PRT 7. Motorist and pedestrian safety 8. Advertising potential 9. Energy efficiency 10. First step to citywide system 11. People are ready for change 12. Promote Milpitas Leads From its beginnings, Milpitas has been an early adopter. Whether racial integration, K-9 police dogs, or LED traffic lights, Milpitas has dared to try new things that could serve our family-friendly community.

Strengths 1. Highly-leveraged (7: 1), low-risk financial investment in a community-owned asset. 2. Begin now rather than await developer's schedule (when we can acquire the POC landing sites on both sides of Montague). 3. Pay less than the alternative $9 M POC, and maybe free! (foundations, federal govt. agencies, PRT company, local contributions) 4. City retains construction oversight (building codes and permits, www. library. ca. gov/CRB/97/12/97012 lr. html, http: //www. dir. ca. gov/DOSH/Amusement. Rides. htm). 5. ASTM has 9 voluntary standards related to PRT “ferry” to guide design and operation. 6. This crossing serves as an inexpensive pilot project to test PRT system before expansion into a BART circulator (and citywide network). 7. Motorists are safe from objects falling from POC; pedestrians and cyclists are safe from Montague and Great Mall traffic. 8. Opportunity to advertise on the sides of guideway as it crosses Montague Expressway. 9. Saves energy in construction (less concrete) & operation (fewer auto trips). 10. First step toward citywide network of clean, safe and quiet public transit with responsive, nonstop 24/7 service. 11. Polls show people are ready for change in energy, transportation, and public health policies. 12. Opportunity to attract national attention and tourism.

Limited Downside 1. Annual O&M 2. Extra hoops to finance project 3. Challenges of prototype PRT 4. Staff and community education 5. Council commitment/leadership missing November 2014 Elections Two members of the City Council will be termed-out and replaced with two new Council members. The new perspectives and personalities will likely shift the Council culture and could lead to a quick reversal of weakness #5.

Weaknesses 1. Estimated $316 K/year Operations & Maintenance; charging fares as system expands will help cover O&M. 2. Due to an unusual crossing solution, financing agencies (VTA and MTC) may need some education/lobbying. 3. This PRT may be prototype for the company (Extra lead time may be required for certain PRT parts, design errors, implementation problems) 4. Staff will require training; public needs education. 5. Neither City Council nor city staff embrace PRT. O&M Estimate of $316 K/year follows from the annual industry average of 3% to 5% of capital cost of transit infrastructure. Annual estimated cost of “ferry” O&M at $7. 9 M x 4% = $316 K.

Citywide PRT for free? 1. Aid our CAP (Climate Action Plan) efforts 2. Growing demand 3. Traffic congestion 4. Spur PRT R&D and deployment 5. ASTM standards for PRT 6. High-leverage funding Citywide PRT System 7. BART circulator Amazing ROI (return on investment). Major CO 2 reductions. 8. Citywide network Safer transportation for kids and elders, and less car traffic. 9. First in nation Less reliance on foreign oil cartels. Cleaner air and water means healthier residents, pets and wildlife.

Opportunities 1. Helps attain 2050 goal of 80% reduction of CO 2 emissions in Milpitas. 2. Fast-growing demand from TASP residents for a crossing will jump when the K-8 school is built. 3. Already-congested Montague/Great Mall intersection worsens in 2017 and as people move into TASP area. 4. Kickstart PRT in US with a shift to low-carbon, high-service advanced transit. 5. Help ASTM (American Society for Testing and Materials) establish national standards for PRT. 6. In addition to 80% funding from VTA/MTC and 8% from OBAG, maybe more from foundations and federal government agencies. 7. Likely extension into BART circulator that connects transit hub with Great Mall, LRT, Pines neighborhood, K-8 school and three high-density housing areas. 8. Extension into citywide system that saves residents (local economy) $6. 6 M annually in gasoline costs. 9. First in nation = advertising, tourism, extra grants for extensions and first applications of PRT technology.

Disruptive Technology 1. Stakeholder resistance 2. Carbon industry resistance 3. Political envy 4. Bureaucratic turf-wars 5. Each PRT system unique 6. Visual intrusion 7. Union resistance Unfounded Fears Earthquakes, getting stranded on the guideway, safety of system, personal security, forced to share rides, noise, voyeurism, vandalism, access with bicycles, many users in a short time.

Threats 1. Project could be delayed or more costly due to obstruction of a stakeholder (PG&E, SCVWD, County Roads, insurance company). 2. Project could attract ill attention of carbon industries. 3. PRT leader San Jose may resent our efforts. 4. Bureaucratic turf-wars may arise that delay or add cost. 5. Although most parts are off-the-shelf, PRT systems are one-offs that entail various risks. 6. NIMBY fears about visual intrusion may delay project. 7. Transit workers union may resist replacement or reduction of bus routes in the area as crossing and associated access trails absorb bicycle and pedestrian traffic.

SWOT Analysis S Milpitas is Ready for PRT O W Limited Downside T Citywide PRT for (nearly) free Disruptive Technology