Swiss South African Cooperation Initiative Tracer Study of
- Slides: 21
Swiss South African Cooperation Initiative Tracer Study of the Transition of NCV Students from the Colleges to the Labour Market, South Africa RPCE Conference 8 – 10 July 2016
Introduction Population – 54 million 2. 5% 8. 9% 0. 5% 79. 2% Black African Coloured • 11 official languages • Key economic sectors: Mining, agriculture, tourism, manufacturing • Youth : 19. 4 million (3. 4 million NEETS) – 18% • Unemployment rate: 25% (Youth: 50%) • 70% of people who start informal business do so because they are unemployed • Gini index: 63. 4 (worst in the world)
Background: NCV courses in TVET colleges • TVET colleges formally constituted in 2002. • Sector comprises 50 new FET colleges with 165 campus sites established across the nine provinces. • Colleges offer NATED courses and since 2007 they offer the National Certificate Vocational (NCV) courses. • NCV – 3 years of (full-time) study, 19 vocational fields in Engineering, Business, Services • NATED and NCV provide training at levels 2, 3 and 4 on the NQF and are open to those who have completed at least Grade 9. • NCV was initially intended to replace the NATED courses. But this has not happened • Enrolment in the NCV - 130 000 to 150 000 for the last 5 years. • Massive growth in NATED courses - now four times that of the NCV.
Background to NCV research • Key challenge faced by DHET: how to manage the envisaged expansion of the TVET colleges without destabilising the sector. • Lack of reliable data around the role of TVET Colleges in relation to the supply of skills - key weakness. • In order to fill this gap, a research project was commissioned and designed to provide data specifically related to NCV on: • the status of colleges in relation to meeting the needs of young schools leavers and • the challenges that colleges face in effectively preparing youth for the labour market.
Research Design • The research was designed to comprise two waves • WAVE 1: An in-college survey of NCV students (NCV 2 -4) was conducted in 30 TVET colleges (122 campuses) in 2010. • Aim of Wave 1: • Understand learner backgrounds • Factors bringing them to TVET colleges • Experience in TVET college • Role of TVET colleges in preparing the youth for labour market • In total 18 131 learners were surveyed.
Research design: Wave 2 WAVE 2: Was a tracer survey of the same students after a period of time. • Contact details collected during 2010 survey • Aim of Wave 2: • examine experiences on leaving TVET colleges and entering the labour market. • Population -18 131 students surveyed in 2010. • Sampling frame - 17 387 individuals. • 9 000 individuals randomly selected. • 100 individuals formed part of the pilot, leaving 8 900 individuals • The survey was carried out telephonically • 3 113 agreed to participate, a response rate of 37. 2%
Wave 2 • Wave 2 obtained data on: • Transition pathways • Employment opportunities • Income range of those that are employed • Kinds of industries or sectors accessed • Link between employment and field of study. • Role of the college in preparing the student to get a job.
Profile of 2015 respondents • 53% were female and 46% were male. This is similar to the gender breakdown of the 18 131 who participated in 2010. • Majority of respondents are African (92%) followed by Coloured (6%), White (1%) and Indian (less than 1%). • 66% were aged between 26 and 30 and 22% were aged 25 and under. • Most respondents (65%) still living in the town or city where they studied in 2010.
Profile of 2015 respondents, contd. • Most respondents live with family members (79%), in particular with one or both parents (50%). A small proportion (13%) live alone and some live with their spouse (5%). • 68% live in households that comprise between 2 and 6 people, while 4% live in households made up of 10 or more people. • 76% live in a formal dwelling while the rest live in informal accommodation or traditional dwellings.
Completion of NCV 4 by 2015 by level of study in 2010 • 38% completed NCV 4 by 2015 with 4% still studying towards NCV qualification in 2015. • Of those who were in NCV 4 in 2010 only 56% had got their NCV 4 by 2015
Reasons for not completing NCV 4 • Lack of finance is the main reason given for not completing the NCV qualification (37%). • But 60% of those surveyed in 2015 had government bursaries in 2010. • Bursary would have continued if they finished each year in stipulated time. • Clearly most of the students are not able to complete their studies in the stipulated time and had to fund for their own studies. • Other reasons given for not completing the NCV qualification included: Still Awaiting certificate (15%); Failure/Outstanding Subjects (13%); Wrong Course for Me (6%); Got a Job (5%); , or moved to N 4 (4%).
Regression analysis : Dependent variable - Completion of NCV 4 qualification Age Female Coloured Indian White Household Size Formal Housing National Senior Certificate Study In Province Origin NCV 3 NCV 4 Bursary/Loan * p<0. 1; ** p<0. 05; *** p<0. 01 Odds Ratio 0. 97 1. 365 1. 661 2. 012 1. 225 0. 974 0. 824 1. 688 1. 066 1. 505 2. 754 1. 273 Standard errors (0. 013)** (0. 109)*** (0. 275)*** -1. 294 -0. 458 -0. 016 (0. 079)** (0. 134)*** -0. 09 (0. 131)*** (0. 307)*** (0. 111)***
Transition pathways of NCV 3 & 4, 2010 -2015 Pathway of 2010 NCV 3 students 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Pathway of 2010 NCV 4 students 70% 35% 42% 36% 21% 18% 10% 29% 2011 2012 2013 49% 47% 41% 31% 17% 2014 12% 2015 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61% 37% 31% 2011 44% 32% 24% 2012 52% 51% 29% 36% 19% 23% 15% 12% 2013 2014 2015 Studying Employed Unemployed Unknown
Employment Kind of employment 100% 22. 9% 80% 8. 8% 60% 40% 68. 3% 20% 0% All employed Contract Informal/Piece Work Permanent
Employment, contd. 73. 3% 3. 7% on Pr iva te P e pa m co te Pr iva rs ny O 1. 0% NG . 0. 1% al /P ie ed fo rm In f-e m pl oy en Se rn m ve 2. 8% ce . . 19. 1% t 80. 0% 60. 0% 40. 0% 20. 0% Go Respondents Types of Employers Types of Epmployers
Completion of NCV 4 and employment status by 2015 % employed and not employed according to whether or not achieved NCV 4 by 2015 100% 50% 39% 32% 36% 61% 68% 64% Did not complete Completed Total 0% Employed Never been employed
Completion of NCV 4 and employment type 100% 80% 23. 5% 22. 6% 22. 9% 4. 8% 11. 5% 8. 8% 60% 40% Permanent 71. 7% Informal/Piece Work 66. 0% 68. 3% 20% 0% Completed NCV 4 Did not complete NCV 4 Total Contract
Earnings Amount earned in employment 60. 0% 48. 3% Percentage 50. 0% 40. 0% 30. 0% 22. 1% 20. 0% 10. 0% 5. 2% 9. 1% 5. 3% 4. 0% 2. 2% 1. 7% 0. 9% <R 1 001 R 3 001 R 5 001 R 7 001 R 9 001 R 13 >R 15 Refused 000 – R 3 – R 5 – R 7 – R 9 – R 11 001 – R 000 000 000 13 000 15 000
Earnings, contd. Earning distribution by gender 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 60% 43% 00 50 >1 1– 15 . . . 00 13 00 10 – 1 Male 1% 0% 1% 1– 13 . . . 0 01 90 Female 3% 1% . . . 5% 3% 00 – 9 01 00 70 – 7 01 50 12% 7% 0 0 00 – 5 0 01 00 30 – 3 10 01 <1 00 0 7% 4% 11 27% 20% 3% 1%
Summary of findings Pathway into employment via the NCV qualification is not easy. Most students do not complete their NCV 4 Lack of finance is still the main reason for not completing Around 60% have been able to find employment at some stage but in any given year only around half of all respondents were employed. • But even for those who do find employment, this is usually impermanent and the majority earn less than R 3000/month. • Most of the jobs are in the private sector. • Those who complete NCV 4 are only slightly more likely to have employment than those who do not complete. • •
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