SWFDP Met Office support for East Africa Rob

SWFDP: Met Office support for East Africa Rob Varley – Met Office Operations and Services Director © Crown copyright Met Office

SWFDP Support – East Africa • • SWFDP Aims • Improve severe weather forecasting, • Improve lead time and reliability of warnings, • Improve interaction of NMHSs with media and with disaster management and civil protection authorities, SWFDP East Africa - Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda • Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nairobi - lead centre • Regional Forecasting Support Centre (RFSC) Dar es Salaam - coordinates and provides specialised products from high-resolution NWP (LAM) over Lake Victoria. Regional centre needs: • Model knowledge and interpretation • Confidence and accuracy in issuing warnings; including increasing lead times • Appreciation of impacts rather than thresholds WMO request for support from the Met Office Global Guidance Unit (GGU) © Crown copyright Met Office

Global Guidance Service • • • September 2012 – 4 month pilot • Met Office visit KMD and TMA to assess requirements and gain appreciation of working environment • Met Office issue daily written guidance across all models available in region • Regional centres use information to inform forecasts • Feedback on forecasting accuracy February 2013 – Phase 2 • KMD and TMA visit Met Office. Shadow forecasters, view facilities and processes • Parameters for daily guidance agreed • Met Office generate graphics-based guidance and establish Huddle site to share information • Daily video conference call to share learning • Met Office takes mentoring role, handing over responsibility to regional centres as confidence grows July 2013 • KMD and TMA visit Rwanda to assess requirements & re-enforce national cascade © Crown copyright Met Office

Video conferencing discussions Tanzania Kenya (Lake Victoria) (x region) Met Office GGU © Crown copyright Met Office

Video conference development? Rwanda Kenya Tanzania (x region) (Lake Victoria) Met Office GGU © Crown copyright Met Office

Vision. . . Uganda South Sudan Burundi Rwanda Ethiopia Consensus Support Collaboration Kenya Tanzania (x region) (Lake Victoria) Met Office GGU © Crown copyright Met Office

Responsibility for guidance Timeline GGU Met Office Stage 1: Support -MO visit to NMHS -Needs assessed -Guidance generated -Feedback shared © Crown copyright Met Office African Met Centres Stage 2: Mentoring - NMHS visit to MO - parameters agreed - video conferencing - mentoring relationship - case study collection - transfer of leadership Time in project Stage 3: Collaboration - Video conferencing led by Africa - Validation embedded - Continuous improvement - MO ongoing model data provision & and development