SWB Security What We Know and What We

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SWB Security: What We Know and What We Can Know Homeland Defense & Security

SWB Security: What We Know and What We Can Know Homeland Defense & Security Education Summit March 24, 2017 Marc R. Rosenblum, Ph. D Deputy Assistant Secretary, Office of Immigration Statistics Department of Homeland Security Draft 0

Disclaimers § This presentation reflects my personal research/analysis; it has not been cleared by

Disclaimers § This presentation reflects my personal research/analysis; it has not been cleared by DHS. Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Overview § Scope of presentation § Measurement Framework § Data Sources § Illegal flows

Overview § Scope of presentation § Measurement Framework § Data Sources § Illegal flows between POE § Illegal flows at POEs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Scope and Measurement Framework § Scope: exclusive focus on unauthorized immigration § Measurement Framework:

Scope and Measurement Framework § Scope: exclusive focus on unauthorized immigration § Measurement Framework: § Enforcement inputs: policy choices and resource investments § Enforcement outputs: immediate results of enforcement policies—how difficult is it for migrants to enter unlawfully? § Enforcement outcomes: ultimate impact of enforcement policies—how many migrants successfully enter? Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Measurement Framework § Enforcement inputs § Enforcement outcomes Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Measurement Framework § Enforcement inputs § Enforcement outcomes Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Data Sources § Administrative data § SME assessments § DHS SMEs § Other SMEs

Data Sources § Administrative data § SME assessments § DHS SMEs § Other SMEs § Survey data § Mathematical models Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Inputs § Investments in personnel, technology, and infrastructure § Enforcement policies (between the

Enforcement Inputs § Investments in personnel, technology, and infrastructure § Enforcement policies (between the ports) § CBP Consequences § Joint task forces § Central America enforcement surge § Enforcement policies (at the ports) § Trusted trade and trusted traveler programs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Interdiction rate § CBP’s measure: Interdiction Effectiveness Rate (IER)

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Interdiction rate § CBP’s measure: Interdiction Effectiveness Rate (IER) § Alternative measure: apprehension rate § Survey data § Model-based estimate: repeated trials model Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Deterrence rate: what share of deportees are deterred from

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Deterrence rate: what share of deportees are deterred from making a subsequent reentry attempt? § Deterrence as an indicator of enforcement outputs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Deterrence rate: what share of deportees are deterred from

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Deterrence rate: what share of deportees are deterred from making a subsequent reentry attempt? § Deterrence as an indicator of enforcement outputs § Deterrence as a predictor of enforcement outcomes Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Deterrence rate: what share of deportees are deterred from

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Deterrence rate: what share of deportees are deterred from making a subsequent reentry attempt? § Deterrence as an indicator of enforcement outputs § Deterrence as a predictor of enforcement outcomes § Indicators of deterrence: § CBP measure: recidivism § Alternative measure: COLEF EMIF survey Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Border crossing costs: § What share of border crossers

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Border crossing costs: § What share of border crossers hire a smuggler? § How much do smugglers charge? § Crossing costs as an indicator of enforcement outputs § Crossing costs as a predictor of enforcement outcomes § Indicators of deterrence: Survey data (CBP and private sector) Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outcomes: between POEs § Three numbers we should really care about: § Total

Enforcement Outcomes: between POEs § Three numbers we should really care about: § Total crossing attempts § Successful illegal entries (flow) § Size of the unauthorized population (stock) Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Methodologies for estimating illegal flow § CBP Got Away

Enforcement Outputs: between POEs § Methodologies for estimating illegal flow § CBP Got Away estimate (SME assessment) § Model-based estimate § Apprehensions as a proxy measure of illegal attempts/illegal entries 1, 800, 000 1, 600, 000 1, 400, 000 1, 200, 000 1, 000 800, 000 600, 000 400, 000 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2004 2006 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1976 1978 1974 1972 1970 0 Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: at POEs § Methodologies for estimating illegal flows through POEs § Survey

Enforcement Outputs: at POEs § Methodologies for estimating illegal flows through POEs § Survey data § Mathematical modeling (RTM model) § Statistical sampling: COMPEX Program Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Enforcement Outputs: Overall § Methodologies for estimating illegal stock § Residual method Office of

Enforcement Outputs: Overall § Methodologies for estimating illegal stock § Residual method Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Next Steps: What We Can Know § Between the ports § Continued/expanded research on

Next Steps: What We Can Know § Between the ports § Continued/expanded research on deterrence and border crossing costs – especially among non-Mexican populations § Refinements to RTM methodology § Surveillance-based estimate of illegal entries § At the ports § Refining COMPEX § Overstays: § Entry-exit tracking Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE