SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND INVESTMENT GAP By Salem

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND INVESTMENT GAP By Salem Sultan, Ph. D Development Economics University of Birmingham Jagadish Wagle (Jesi) MSc Food security and development, MA Economics, BL. , BEd. November, 2019

CONTENTS BACKGROUND INVESTMENT SCENARIO • MDGs • SDGs • Requirement • Gap 1 1. GLOBAL SYSTEM 1. GLOBAL COMMITMENT • Leave no one behind • Challenges 4 2 • Populism • Socialist move/New economy 1. CASE STUDY : NEPAL 1. CONCLUSIONS • Reality • Internal resources • External resources • Conclusion and Recommendation • Future study • REFERENCE 3 5 6

BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND Chronic problems § § Poverty Solutions Hunger ? Inequality Climate change and so on State created problems due to policies implemented and believe in

BACKGROUND SDGs 2015 -30 LEAVE NO ONE BEHIND MDGs 2000 -15

GLOBAL COMMITMENT Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (2015 -2030) § § § 17 Goals 169 Targets 232 Indicators Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (2000 -2015) § § § 8 Goals 21 targets Health and economic indicators

MDGs (2000 -2015) & Achievements GOALs § § § § GLOBAL COMMITMENT To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger To achieve universal primary education To promote gender equality and empower women To reduce child mortality To improve maternal health To combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases To ensure environmental sustainability To develop a global partnership for development

MDGs (2000 -2015) & Achievements Contd… Globally, the number of people living in extreme poverty has declined by more than half § § § Despite many successes, the poorest and most vulnerable people are being left behind Gender inequality persists Big gaps exist between the poorest and richest households, and between rural and urban areas Climate change and environmental degradation continues and poor people suffer the most Conflicts remain the biggest threat to human development Millions of poor people still live in poverty and hunger, without access to basic services https: //www. un. org/millenniumgoals/2015_MDG_Report/pdf/MDG%202015%20 rev%20(July%201). pdf

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (2015 -2030) § 17 Goals § 169 Targets § 232 Indicators § Poverty measure $1. 25 a day

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) The SDGs is a global commitment of to LEAVE NO ONE BEHIND

GLOBAL COMMITMENT

GLOBAL COMMITMENT Pr os pe rit y The SDGs targets Poverty …. Hunger … Education … Health … Equality … Etc… Pe ac e § § § Pr og re ss TO LEAVE NO ONE BEHIND

Poverty Alleviation $1. 90 a day (NRs 214. 47 @113. 53 as of 20/10/2019) Is it enough for the basic needs § § § § Food Shelter Cloth School Hospital Social & culture Future saving/security Among the 736 million people who lived on less than $1. 90 a day in 2015, 413 million were in sub-Saharan Africa. This figure has been climbing in recent years and is higher than the number of poor people in the rest of the world combined. https: //unstats. un. org/sdgs/report/2019/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2019. pdf

Poverty Alleviation Still § More than one third of employed workers in sub-Saharan Africa still live on less than $1. 90 a day § Among the 736 million people who lived on less than $1. 90 a day in 2015, 413 million were in sub-Saharan Africa. This figure has been climbing in recent years and is higher than the number of poor people in the rest of the world combined.

CASE STUDY : NEPAL

NEPAL : BRIEF INTRODUCTION GDP Growth rate… Population growth rate… Percapita income… Poor Poverty… Governance Health… Happiness index… Multidimensional poverty index… Corruption… Polycentric governance… Political instability…in 27 years (1990 -2017) Prime ministers had been changed 27 times Natural calamity (flood earthquake) Trade deficit Federalism …three tire provincial system introduced just in 2015

Internal Resources Contd… Instability In 27 years (1990 -2017), Nepalese PMs changed for 27 times Political, social and environmental

Internal Resources Contd… Corruption and Nepotism Non-inclusive Policy measures Ncell scandal The apex court observed that the LTO had determined Rs 143 billion as gains in the Ncell buyout deal, Large Taxpayers’ Office for imposing Rs 62. 63 billion as applicable capital gains tax on Ncell for its buyout deal. The private telecom firm would now have to pay only around Rs 22 billion Elected local reps may not get fixed salaries : Court

Internal Resources Contd… Melamchi Water Project AMWSP was initially estimated to cost USD 317. 32 million. of the project is USD 355. 4 million. Additional fund worth $38. 1 million (renegotiated in 2014 between the Go. N and Asian Development Bank) http: //www. jwrc-net. or. jp/aswin/en/newtap/report/New. Tap_IWP 01. pdf And the revised estimated cost

Internal Resources Contd… Human resource: § On average, more than 1, 500 leave the country every day for work (13 years insurgency, political instability, lack of alternative opportunities) § On average, total 712 death body in a year return to Nepal: huge social cost § Unemployment rate is at 40 percent, according to young men and women, finding work abroad is the only option § Spend remittance for hire purchase, housing, gold and cultural extravagant which is less productive § Entrepreneurship is less preferable (high risk)

Internal Resources Contd… Externalities: IGNORED ! NEGATIVE § Open boarder || Hills and Mountain – higher construction cost || Landlocked || Climate change (Flood, Earthquake and drought) POSITIVE § Market i. e. Asian giants || Natural resources – Hydropower 39000 MW || Diversities || Touristic views and scene || cheap labour || Remittance – 31% of GDP

Nepal Family planning : Case study Nepal Family Planning Program § § § Supported by The US Government Discontinued from Trump Administration Forced to closed due to budget deficiency

Internal Resources Contd… Constitutional cost: IGNORED ! Restructured federal state into three tire: lack of operational efficiency Total cost: cost about NRs 300 million for constitutional assembly, 8 years, 13 year’s insurgency, 20, 000 people died, Plus insurgent’s resettlement cost Three tire federal province system has been implemented since 2015’s new constitution, which has been understood as a complicated and expensive form of governance.

Plight of Internal Resources in Nepal § § Public Private Donors Community Poor performance

FINANCIAL SCENARIO

SDGs financing Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

SDGs Financing Gap Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the. SDGs. pdf

Sector wise SDGs financing in developing countries Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

Financial Investment to achieve SDGs § To be invested $5 to 7 Trillion a year § Commitment received of $3 Trln. so far § GAP still 2 – 4 Trln. Between now & till 2030 § The Gross World Output $87 Trln

Bridging the SDG funding Channels § Direct investment – US$ 1. 7 trillion Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs): Key source of private finance § Traditional financial institution: Institutional investors (Pension funds, insurance companies)- US$ 80 Trn. Remittance - US$ 429 bln. , Foundation – US$19 bln. , Microfinance - US$ 7. 5 bln. , § Alternative financial institutions: Private equity Crowdfunding https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

SDGs financing Gap It is estimated that worldwide SDG investment needs to be US$ 6 trillion per year on average. Of this, advanced countries represent US$ 1. 5 trillion per year while emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) represent US$ 4. 5 trillion. Africa alone represents one third or US$ 1. 5 trillion of the EMDEs’ investment needs. Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

SDGs financing Gap Developed countries already receive US$ 1. 4 trillion per year, so the remaining gap to address is of less than 10%. Emerging markets and developing countries receive US$ 2 trillion, with the remaining gap at US$ 2. 5 trillion per year. Africa receives US$ 221 billion, and a gap of US$ 1. 3 trillion per year remains. Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

Sector wise SDGs financing in developing countries Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

Bridging the SDG funding gap It is estimated that of public financial flows contributing to SDG investment needs, namely US$ 438 billion in advanced countries, US$ 1005 billion in EMDEs and US$ 83 billion in Africa. AND estimate annual private financing flows at US$ 1. 9 trillion https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

Developing countries and SDGs The UN estimates additional US$ 2. 5 trillion per year

GLOBAL SYSTEM

Private financing Private finance to invest in SDGs projects has been regarded as an essential component However, Privatisation has been understood as a failed state – e. g. Labour Party UK – nationalisation of Rail, Mail, Energy and water Source: https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

Global System at risk § § § Populism – Trump, Brexit New antimigration move Trade war – US, China, EU Tax haven 99% against 1% occupy J. Corbyn (UK) and B. Sanders (US): socialist move SDGs are global commitment Might be collapses or rejected or recession

The ODI. Org’s Evaluation says https: //www. odi. org/sites/odi. o rg. uk/files/odiassets/publications-opinionfiles/9839. pdf

The ODI. Org’s Evaluation says INEQUALITY & CLIMATE CHANGE fall on Grade F, which is heading wrong direction.

CONCLUSIONS

Governance Polycentric Governance • Good governance • Global policy attention • Check and Balance Problems are not only lack of financial resource but also effective policy & implementation

Success Good Governanc e Public support DEFICIENCY Financial Investment

Bridging the SDG funding gap Two fundamental shifts that can help bridge the SDG funding gap: Impact-based business models that can generate new revenues, reduce costs and improve risk, and holistic impact analysis for the financial sector to uncover and address impacts. https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf

SDGs and Complexity Some SDGs targets are poor value for money § Copenhagen CC conducted CBA on SDGs targets § So, need a change or drop entirely! https: //www. copenhagenconsensus. com/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_content/public/graph_all_targets_mar 19_0. png? itok=tj 9 i. Xsoa https: //www. theguardian. com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jul/20/we-must-focus-on-the-un-goals-that-are-the-best-value-for-money

SDGs and Complexity Complex to communicate § 17 Goals § 169 Targets § 232 Indicators Lack of know-how in Developing economies

We need more efforts The UN Says https: //unstats. un. org/sdgs/report/ 2019/The-Sustainable. Development-Goals-Report 2019. pdf

Recommendations

References https: //kathmandupost. com/money/2017/06/10/elected-local-reps-may-not-get-fixed-salaries https: //kathmandupost. com/valley/2018/08/15/three-tier-government-at-loggerheads-over-tax http: //www. jwrc-net. or. jp/aswin/en/newtap/report/New. Tap_IWP 01. pdf http: //labour. org. uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/NPF-Report-Commission-2019. pdf https: //www. unepfi. org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rethinking-Impact-to-Finance-the-SDGs. pdf https: //unstats. un. org/sdgs/report/2019/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2019. pdf https: //www. copenhagenconsensus. com/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_content/public/graph_all_targets_mar 19_0. png? itok=tj 9 i. Xsoa https: //www. theguardian. com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/jul/20/we-must-focus-on-the-un-goals-that-are-the-best-valuefor-money https: //www. aljazeera. com/blogs/asia/2018/02/plight-nepal-migrant-workers-180205084756399. html https: //www. bbc. co. uk/news/magazine-35008255 https: //s 3. amazonaws. com/sustainabledevelopment. report/2019_sustainable_development_report. pdf

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