Sustainability technologies in the BRICS countries Rainer Walz
Sustainability technologies in the BRICS countries Rainer Walz Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Content § § Background and heuristics Overview of empirical results Results for the sustainability technology fields Preliminary Conclusions Page 2
Background § Increasing ecological problems - also within BRICS countries - Global problems require emissions reductions in all countries § Environmental problems are often associated with infrastructure and resource use - Energy, transport, water, and material use key issues - Environmental concern linked to other dimensions (=sustainability) § Political initiatives on various levels - International environmental policies, MDG - Technology cooperation between industrialized countries and BRICS countries and among them § Focus of research interest - competences and incentives of BRICS countries in sustainabiltiy technologies - First step: (relative) importance of sust. technologies in BRICS NIS Page 3
Environmental Kuznets Curve Page 4
Key requirements and incentives for sustainability innovations Integrating sustainability technologies into the economy § Success factors - the same as for the NIS in general - level of sustainability technology relevant capabilities § Incentive: emissions reduction and access to new technology for modernizing economy Lead market strategy § Incentive: emission reduction and first mover advantage for sustainability technologies on the world market § Success factors - Lead market characteristics of technology: Non Heckscher-Ohlin goods - Competitiveness of industry clusters - Rising demand oriented towards innovation and enabling economies of scale, - Innovation friendly regulation - Overcoming path dependency - Technological capability of country with regard to the technology Page 5
System of Sustainability Innovation (SSI) Page 6
Empirical Analysis § Technologies with potential for increasing (ecological) sustainability - Renewable energy and carbon neutral fossil fuels (CCS) Energy efficiency in buildings Material efficiency Transportation Water and wastewater Additional: social science research on diffusion/obstacles of these technologies § Empirical concept - Research institutions and programs (statistics, interviews) with relation to sustainability technologies Publications on implementation issues of sustainable technologies (selected (S)SCI journals and fields); problem: language bias (International) patents in technologies relevant for sustanability Trade statistics of potential sustainability technologies (UN-COMTRADE) § Guiding questions Page 7 Short term: What is the level of activity and capability Research outlook: How do the activities in each field match (intensity of research with patent, trade and publication specialization, influence of demand, regulation, other factors)
Overview of Results I: World Patent Shares and World Trade Shares of Sustainability Technologies in BRICS Countries BRICS account for § 2. 5 % of intern. sust. technology patents § 9 % of world exports of sust. relevant technologies § 4 % of sust. techn. diffusion research Importance for BRICS § 5 % (IN) to 13 % (ZA) of patents § 3 % (RU) to 12 % (BR) of exports Change over time § I, C: high increase § B, S: increase § R: no dynamic Page 8
Overview II: Specialization of BRICS Countries on Sustainability Technologies § Brazil and South Africa positive, other countries negative specialization § Patent specialization more positive than trade § Accounting for imports (RCA) changes picture not substantially § Preliminary: China specializes more on national than int. sust. techn. patents § Results differ for technology fields Page 9
Overview III: Importance of trade in sustainability technologies between BRICS-countries § considerable share of exports to other BRICS countries § important export market for BR § Important import market for IN, RU, ZA § Role of China underestimated: substantial share of BRIS sust. technology exports go to China Page 10
Overview IV: Research System § § § Sustainability Technologies as such no explicit key area of R&D priorities Numerous links of selected sustainability fields e. g. energy and transportation, resources Links differ between countries - B: Biomass, energy, transport, water - R: Energy, transport - I: agriculture/life science - C: renewable energy, clean coal, buildings - S: energy, resource based industries, water Type of programs - Mostly cross cutting - Some specific programs, especially for energy, transport and water - Sustainability issues in transportation rather weak? Lower priority for (social) science research on diffusion of sustainability technologies Page 11
Renewable Energy and CCS § § § Patent specialization - Positive for Russia and South Africa (clean coal related) - Some positive specialization at disaggregated technology level (e. g. solar thermal and water energy) Negative export specialization Trade between BRICS countries - Export markets for Brazil and Russia - China as import country Research system - Renewable resources important - Clean coal in China important Conclusion - Promising field, high dynamic - BRICS still relying on knowledge and technology from other countries - Some research to reduce weaknesses Page 12
Buildings § Average patent specialization - Mostly around average - Only India negative specialization § Negative export specialization, with the exception of China (strong in cooling) § Trade between BRICS countries - Export markets for India and Russia - China as import country § Research system - Moderate importance in Russia and China § Conclusion - BRIS still relying on knowledge and technology from other countries - Promising field for China Page 13
Materials Use § § § Positive patent specialization - Renewable resources especially strong - Recycling in China, India weak Export specialization - Positive for Brazil (ren. resources) and South Africa (recycling) - Negative for other BRICS countries Trade between BRICS countries - Export markets for Brazil and Russia - China as import country Research system - Renewable resources in Brazil - Recycling in other RICS countries Conclusion - Brazil improves strengths - C, I improve weaknesses Page 14
Transport Technologies § Positive patent specialization only for Russia and South Africa (CCS related) § Export specialization - Positive for Brazil - Negative for India, Russia, South Africa § Trade between BRICS countries rather low § Research system - Important field in B, R, C - Less important for I, S § Conclusion - Very dynamic field - Sustainability aspects within the field must be strengthened Page 15
Water Technologies § § § Mostly positive patent specialization - BRIS: positive for water supply and wastewater - C: negative, except flooding - Efficient water use no key topic Negative trade specialization - Across all subsectors Trade between BRICS countries medium - Export markets for India and Russia - China as import country Research system - Important in Brazil and South Africa - Growing perception: that field becomes more and more important in R, I, C Conclusion - BRICS still relying on other countries, - but important field for improvement in the future Page 16
Preliminary Conclusions § Sustainability technologies not only improve environment – also potential to foster modernization of economy § Good functioning of system of sustainability innovations required § Sustainability technologies are not an overall key priority in BRICS countries, - but there are numerous links and good starting points § Countries differ with regard to structure of their competences and strategies - Brazil: lead market strategy for biomass based technologies? - Russia: some knowledge base, but not much (market) dynamics? Focus on research exploitation instead of efficiency? - India: no clear picture, priorities too much in other areas? - China: trade performance much stronger than knowledge base, but high dynamics in many fields - South Africa: some knowledge base, but difficulties to receive enough attention? § Increasing importance of Intra-BRICS-trade § Research on diffusion of sustainability technologies below average § Policy conclusions - strategic and systemic positioning necessary - environmental and infrastructure policies are demand oriented innovation policies! § Next research steps: - role of demand regulation in BRICS countries - Long-term: how do systems of sustainability innovations function Page 17
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