Sustainability Designing a Planet Worth Inheriting Monty Hempel

Sustainability Designing a Planet Worth Inheriting Monty Hempel Center for Environmental Studies University of Redlands Monty Hempel

What does academic success mean in a world of ecological failure? Monty Hempel

What does financial success mean in a world of ecological failure? Monty Hempel

What do both academic success and financial success mean in a world of wrenching social inequality? Monty Hempel

Another Perspective Monty Hempel

Thank you slide Sustainability A Ray of Sunshine Monty Hempel

Human well-being depends on: 1. Ecological Life Support Systems Air, water, soils, climate system, nutrient cycles, biotic communities 2. Economic Support Systems Markets, income, wealth, employment, trade, property rights 3. Social Support Systems Equity, education, health care, law & governance, culture, liberty Easier to remember as The 3 “E”s : Environment, Economy, Equity Monty Hempel

The Three Pillars of Sustainability • each is indispensable, • all are interconnected. Monty Hempel

Sustainability: The 3 “E’s” ENVIRONMENT Flourishing Ecosystems Sustainability Strong Economies Social Justice ECONOMY EQUITY Monty Hempel

A Sustainable Future ENVIRONMENT Flourishing Ecosystems Sustainability Strong Economies Social Justice ECONOMY EQUITY Monty Hempel

Web of Interconnections The 3 “E”s Monty Hempel

The Three “E”s ENVIRONMENT Pollution & Resource Conflict ECONOMY EQUITY Monty Hempel

The Three “E”s ENVIRONMENT ECONOMY EQUITY Class & Property Conflict Monty Hempel

The Three “E”s ENVIRONMENT Growth Control Conflict ECONOMY EQUITY Monty Hempel

Conflicting Goals ENVIRONMENT Pollution & Growth Resource Control Conflict Conflict “Glocal” Integration “Green, Profitable & Fair” ECONOMY EQUITY Class & Property Conflict adapted from Scott Campbell, 1996 Monty Hempel

Art Ecosystem Health Human Health Civic Heritage Jobs with Living Wages Creating a Sustainable Future Economic Efficiency & Sufficiency Participatory Democracy Education Equity & Social Justice Monty Hempel

Sustainability: A Bequest? What we leave to future generations. Monty Hempel, University of Redlands

Sustainability ultimately depends on our capacity to empathize with future generations of people and animals, and on our ethical sense of obligation to treat them as we would want to be treated. Baby gets a shot. Monty Hempel

Future Generations Monty Hempel

Iroquois Ethics: Looking out for the Seventh Generation SUSTAINABILITY Monty Hempel

Meeting human needs for… s Source: Nancy Dickson, Harvard Monty Hempel

Meeting human needs for… s Source: Nancy Dickson, Harvard Monty Hempel

Rules-of-Thumb for Sustainability • INPUT RULE RENEWABLES: Harvest rates of resources must be within the regenerative capacity of systems that produce them. NONRENEWABLES: Rates of depletion must not exceed the rate at which ecologically sound, long-term resource substitutes are developed. Adapted from Ismail Serageldin, 1993) • OUTPUT RULE Waste and pollution from a community must not exceed the assimil-ative capacity of its bioregion and must not degrade future absorp-tive capacity or any other important ecolog-ical services. (Note: residuals exported beyond the bioregion must be accounted for. ) Monty Hempel

Source: Wellesley Institute Monty Hempel

Overview of the Vision 2050 project World Business Council on Sustainable Development

Monty Hempel

Climate change Ozone depletion Acidification Air & water pollution Over- population Species extinction Soil erosion Eutrophication Genetic modification Fossil fuel depletion radiation Freshwater depletion Oil Spills Solid waste Deforestation Food safety Loss of open space Toxic chemicals Desertification Health of the Ocean Monty Hempel noise Monty Hempel

Interlocking slow-motion crises • Climate Disruption • Ocean Health • Biodiversity Crash • Water-Stressed Regions • Food Systems? Energy? (e. g. , Overfishing, Acidification) Monty Hempel NASAMonty Hempel Blue Marble

Academic success won’t mean much in a world of ecological failure -- James Farrell We are taught very well by what we are not taught. Monty Hempel NASA Blue Marble

The Future Monty Hempel

A Future of Historical Surprise? Monty Hempel

Talking about the future means stepping out on thin ice… Monty Hempel

Four Visions of the Future Market Forces Policy Reform Market optimism, hidden and enlightened hand Stewardship through better technology and management Fortress World Great Transition Social chaos, fragmentation, authoritarian “solutions” Progressive social evolution, human solidarity and the art of living Tellus Institute

250 Years of Change Population CO 2 Water Use Paper Consumption Motor Vehicles Species Extinction GDP Loss of Tropical Forest N. Hemisphere Surface Temperature Foreign Investment Ozone Depletion Fisheries Exploited 1800 2000

Perceptions of Environmental Change Over Time Scientist (“skyrocketing”) 1, 000 years Politician (modest growth) 4 years Business Manager Investor (slight increase) (no change) 1 year a few days/a few months Monty Hempel

The Paradox of Sustainability Sustainable the Pyramids Community a Civilization Long Lived Short Lived (Time) Individual living cell Planet Earth a Human Being Unsustainable Monty Hempel

Two Time Frames: The Paradox of Sustainability Sustainable Historical (millennium) time frame 1, 000 year time frame the Pyramids Community Egyptian Civilization Long Lived Short Lived (Time) Individual living cell Geological time frame Planet Earth a Human Being 1 billion year time frame Unsustainable Monty Hempel

Global Trends 1750 -2000 1 Population, GDP, FDI, Dams, Water Use, Fertilizer, Urban Population, Paper Consumption, Mc. Donalds, Motor Vehicles, Telephones, International Tourism Monty Hempel

Global Trends 1750 -2000 2 CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4, Ozone Depletion, Surface Temperature, Floods, Fisheries Decline, Shrimp, Nitrogen, Deforestation, Land Developed, Global Biodiversity Monty Hempel

The Population Spike The Consumption Spike 2011 Monty Hempel

Various Radiatively Important Features of Atmospheric Composition Have Changed over the Last Century Monty Hempel

Courtesy of Hunter Lovins Monty Hempel

km 3/ year World water use

Marine fish catch

Smoke particles, Ductwork, or Termites? Chris Jordan Monty Hempel

Chris Jordan Monty Hempel

One million plastic cups – the number of plastic cups used by airlines on U. S. flights every six hours – Chris Jordan (Plastic Cups, 2007) – Chris Jordan Monty Hempel

SUSTAIN ABILITY • • a video essay a personal journey a new worldview a way to thrive when living in a world of wounds and wonders

Some Ancient Chinese Wisdom If you are thinking a year ahead, sow seed. If you are thinking ten years ahead, plant a tree. If you are thinking one hundred years ahead, educate the people. -- Kuan Chung (d. 645 B. C. ), Chinese Poet, from Kuan-tzu (Book of Master Kuan), c. 500 B. C. Monty Hempel

The fragmentation of knowledge and resulting chaos are not reflections of the real world, but are artifacts of scholarship -- E. O. Wilson Monty Hempel

Current Educational Structure http: //www. wikipedia. org/ Monty Hempel

The “sustainability crisis” is largely a crisis of education ‘The crisis we face is first and foremost one of the mind, perception, and values; hence, it is a challenge to those institutions presuming to shape minds, perceptions, and values. ’ - David Orr Monty Hempel

Types of Scholars Techies, Talkies, Tweenies, and Transies Monty Hempel

Disciplinary Boundaries Monty Hempel

Disciplinarity Comparative Advantage Adam Smith 1723 -1790 David Ricardo 1772 -1823 Specialized knowledge leads to most productive use of factors and generates the greatest wealth; therefore the greatest social good. Monty Hempel

Elephant in the Wild Monty Hempel

Elephant in the University Monty Hempel

The Six Blind Men of Indostan (The Blind Men and the Elephant) American poet John Godfrey Saxe (1816 -1887) Reductionist Method: breaking things into smaller and smaller pieces until each piece can be accurately analyzed. Monty Hempel

The Benefits of Cross. Disciplinary Collaboration Monty Hempel

How Interdisciplinary Programs Are Viewed in Most Universities? Monty Hempel

Arguments for Transdisciplinarity • The problems we face transcend the disciplinary knowledge we practice. • Universities should be communities of scholars – incubators and testing laboratories of ideas – not confederations of turfdoms. • It’s not either / or! We need disciplinary, interdisciplinary, AND transdisciplinary programs in higher education. We need them for knowledge about sustainability! Monty Hempel

Monty Hempel Something always happens…. .

Monty Hempel

Monty Hempel Slide courtesy of Dr. Thomas Leuteritz Monty Hempel

Empathy The key to sustainability? Monty Hempel

Monty Hempel Hang. Son. Doong Monty Hempel Cave, Vietnam

Monty Hempel Hang. Son. Doong Cave, Vietnam

Monty Hempel Unrecoverable Leaps

Monty Hempel

Learning Community Infrastructure The 9 Elements of a Sustainable Campus Energy (e. g. , efficiency + sufficiency + renewables) Food (more local & organic food, less meat consumption) Materials (reduce, reuse, recycle + biomicry +design) Governance (participatory, transparent, accountable) Investment (campus as green economic multiplier) Wellness (promotes personal, community & planetary health) Curriculum (integrative & experiential learning + big ideas) Interpretation (e. g. , campus as frontier experience) Aesthetics (e. g. , the Art of stewardship) Monty Hempel Adapted from Mitch Thomashow

HOW? Systems over Habitats over Species SCALES AND BOUNDARIES INTERSECT Monty Hempel

Key priority areas l Economic Vitality: sustainable consumption and production - working towards achieving enough (not necessarily more) with less. l Social Vitality and Resilience: creating places where people want to live and work, now and in the future. l Environmental Enhancement: Natural resource protection and restoration - protecting the natural systems on which we depend. u Climate Disruption, Energy, & Water - top challenges Monty Hempel

Width denotes biocapacity value Humans CARNIVORES Lions, wolves, spiders Value (Ecosystem services) HERBIVORES Cattle, sheep, deer, grasshoppers PLANTS Crops, trees, grasses SOIL Ecologist’s Pyramid Adapted from Eric Davidson Monty Hempel

Marketed Consumer Products Bread Processed Foods Flour Crops Stored Grain Wheat Value $$$$ Improved Fields Soil Width denotes dollar value cheap dirt Economist’s Pyramid Adapted from Eric Davidson Monty Hempel

Monty Hempel Creating a Bull Market? Monty Hempel

Time is short; change is slow! Monty Hempel

Risk Taking is Needed! Monty Hempel

Looking Back 100 Years • population (about 2 billion) • global governance (few countries, many empires, national economies) • technology (automobile and telephone just beginning to have an impact) • miniscule “civil society sector” • environmental awareness • no concept of global climate change • little understanding of pollution or its impacts on health • few concerns about biodiversity, deforestation • no one imagined seeing planet earth from space David V. J. Bell

Looking Ahead 100 years – How will we: • Meet basic needs for food, water, shelter, and energy of 10 billion people? • Stabilize the climate by reducing GHG emissions globally by more than 80%? • Reduce proportion of the world’s population living on US$2 per day or less? ( currently nearly half -- 3 billion) • Achieve a low carbon “factor 10” economy? – shift from “take-make-waste” production cycle to “cradle-to-cradle”? (There’s no waste in Nature) • Achieve a more peaceful, “secure” world? (i. e. , avoid nuclear conflicts with North Korea, Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, etc. ) Monty Hempel

Foundations of human well-being Human well-being is supported by three pillars: • economic conditions and processes employment, income & wealth (magnitude & distribution), markets, trade… • equity and sociopolitical conditions & processes law & order, national & homeland security, governance, liberty, justice, equity, education, health care, science, culture & the arts… • environmental conditions and processes air, water, soils, mineral resources, the biota, nutrient cycles, climatic processes… Monty Hempel John Holdren

“Development” and “sustainability” • Development should mean improving human well-being in all 3 dimensions ― economic, equity/sociopolitical, and environmental. • Sustainable development should mean doing so by means & end points consistent with maintaining the improvements indefinitely. Monty Hempel John Holdren

Key sustainability challenges • Eradicating extreme poverty • Defeating preventable diseases • Mastering the energy/economy/environment dilemma (above all, providing the energy our economies need without wrecking the climate our environment needs) • Adapting to the degree of climate change that can no longer be avoided • Managing (at the same time!) the intensifying competition for the planet’s land, water, & biomass John Holdren

The challenges are interconnected • Poverty & local environmental degradation are linked in a vicious circle of cause & effect. – deforestation for fuelwood, subsistence farming; desertification & erosion from overgrazing • Preventable disease is linked to environment & poverty. – lack of sanitation & clean water, acute air pollution in rural dwellings from traditional fuels, malnutrition & low birth weight from inadequate diets Monty Hempel John Holdren

Interconnections (continued) • Economic progress intensifies the competition for land, water, & NPP, as well as the energy/economy/climate dilemma: – improved diets increase demand for grain (for animal feed), grazing land, soybeans, fish… – use of water & energy soar with income – climate change, largely from energy supply, imperils terrestrial & marine food production and water availability…while increasing demand for biofuels (to replace fossil fuels) and standing forests (to keep CO 2 out of atmosphere). Monty Hempel John Holdren

The two toughest challenges: 1. the energy/economy/environment dilemma • Available, affordable energy is an indispensable input for meeting basic human needs, increasing standards of living, and fueling economic growth • But harvesting, transporting, and using energy are responsible for many of the most damaging & intractable environmental threats to human well-being at every scale from the local to the global. Monty Hempel John Holdren

The toughest challenges: 2. The competition for land, water, & biomass • land for housing, commerce, industry, and transport infrastructure • water for homes, businesses, industry, power-plant cooling • land, water, and biomass for food, forage, fiber, biofuels, chemical feedstocks • land, water, & biomass for recreation, beauty, solace of unspoiled nature, ecosystem functions Monty Hempel John Holdren

Competition for land & vegetation Croplands & pasturelands now cover ~40% of world land area. Forest area has declined by ~10 million km 2 (about 20%) in the last 300 years, with most of the loss in the last 50. Desert & near-desert land has increased by nearly as much. Cities, roads, & airports now cover 2% of world land. Monty Hempel Foley et al. , SCIENCE 309, 2005

BETWEEN TWO WORLDS A film by Monty Hempel

pathway to Vision 2050 To a. The sustainable world in 2050 TODAY From business-as-usual

Economy Environment Adequately remunerated work (livable wages/benefits) with viable modes of energy production and transportation Minimizing use/waste of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, minerals, biodiversity) Access to affordable housing, including secure, healthy habitat with reliable basic services/infrastructure Sustainable use of renewable resources (aquifers, freshwater, wetlands, soils, biomass, human beings) Affordable health care, community services and social safety net Keeping within the absorptive capacity of local, regional and global sinks (air, land water) Sustainability Science Equity Flourishing civil life in association with others Good governance (accountable, transparent, participatory, respectful of human rights and diversity) Quality of Life and Futurity (fulfilling the needs of the present generation without undermining the ability of future generations to meet their own needs) Cyberinfrastructure and Sustainability Informatics Building cyberinfrastructure and collaboratories for knowledge networking across academic disciplines, local-regional-global boundaries, and digital divides Creating planning and decision-support tools (on-line interactive maps, visualization, grids, GIS, models, scenarios, sustainability informatics) Enabling the production, integration and sharing of knowledge ecologies through story, art, multimedia, culture and infocartography Three Es of sustainable development + challenges for cyberinfrastructure and sustainability informatics *This diagram incorporates elements from diagrams in Satterthwaite (1997) and Friedmann (2002)

Lack focus on resource efficiency Ecological footprint in 2050 - need more than 2 planets

Sir Ken Robinson’s critique of modern education: http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=z. DZFc. DGp. L 4 U&fe ature=player_embedded Monty Hempel

What does academic success mean in a world of casino economics ? …in a world of job insecurity? Monty Hempel

System in Crisis • • Climate Change Energy Resources Consumption Financial Crisis & Recession Access to Water Food Crisis Poverty

Global Population Growth Monty Hempel

10 SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGES (Global) 1. Food Production (increasing prices, scarcity, shrinking food reserves, decreasing water) 2. Water Shortages (falling water tables, scarcity, and pollution) 3. Climate & Energy Crisis (supply/demand, U. S. , India, China, etc. ) 4. Ocean Acidification and dead zones (threatens food chain) 5. Natural Disasters (e. g. , climate-change-related issues: floods, hurricanes, droughts, extreme weather) 6. Population growth & concentrations (open space, waste & pollution, etc) 7. Desertification , loss of top soil 8. Failed States (political instability) 9. Biodiversity crisis 10. Ecosystem stress (Humans use 30 -50% more resources than nature can replenish and 60% of ecosystems are heavily degraded and used unsustainably) Monty Hempel

Numbers that Really Matter! 99% : 1% 350 ppm (CO 2) 400 = 154, 000 1 Billion every 12 years (pop. ) $1 Billion per day (imported oil) 925 Million (chronic hunger) Monty Hempel

In contrast, our industrial system functions primarily in a linear fashion. Make Take “natural capital, ” Take structured valuable material, and process (make) it into unusable make waste Source: Hawken, Lovins, Natural Capitalism Waste Only 6% of material flow in ends up in products Monty Hempel, University of Redlands

Components of Sustainability 1. Ecological Integrity 2. Social Well-Being 3. Economic Vitality Prerequisites • • • Civic Engagement “Glocal” Thinking Small Group Democracy Efficiency + “Sufficiency” Bequest for Future Generations Monty Hempel, University of Redlands Monty Hempel