Susan Brower Minnesota State Demographer Modified by Sean

Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer (Modified by Sean Kershaw) July 21, 2016 (September 29, 2016)

NUMBER OF MN’S OLDER ADULTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 85 55 1950 s 60 s 71 70 s 67 80 s 91 47 90 s 00 s - - - 10 s 20 s 30 s Sources: U. S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center - - 40 s 2050 s

NUMBER OF MN’S OLDER ADULTS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 335 285 85 55 71 67 1950 s 60 s 70 s 80 s 97 91 47 90 s 00 s 10 s 20 s 30 s Sources: U. S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center 66 56 40 s 2050 s

WHAT MINNESOTA LOOKED LIKE… LAST YEAR Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2015 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 250000 65 years Female Male 200000 150000 100000 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

WHAT MINNESOTA WILL LOOK LIKE… IN 9 YEARS Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2025 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 250000 Female Male 200000 150000 100000 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

WHAT MINNESOTA WILL LOOK LIKE… IN 19 YEARS Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2035 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 250000 Female Male 200000 150000 100000 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

WHAT MINNESOTA WILL LOOK LIKE… IN 29 YEARS Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2045 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 250000 Female Male 200000 150000 100000 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY: MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 18 -24 800 000 65+ 600 000 5 -17 400 000 2060 Source: U. S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 0

AN “OLDER MINNESOTA” IS HERE TO STAY (2015 – 2065) 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 20 1 20 5 1 20 7 1 20 9 2 20 1 2 20 3 2 20 5 2 20 7 2 20 9 3 20 1 3 20 3 3 20 5 3 20 7 3 20 9 4 20 1 4 20 3 4 20 5 4 20 7 4 20 9 5 20 1 5 20 3 5 20 5 5 20 7 5 20 9 6 20 1 6 20 3 65 - Sources: Minnesota's total population, age and sex projections from 2015 -2070, Minnesota State Demographic Center, August 2015. http: //mn. gov/demography/projections 65+ 85+

TOTAL 25 - TO 64 -YEAR-OLDS IN MN WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER (2013 -2035) 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3

THE TRANSITION TO AN OLDER MINNESOTA HAS ALREADY BEGUN

HEALTHY LIFE EXPECTANCY AT 65, 2007 -2009 At age 65, the average Minnesotan will live an additional 20 years. 15 of those years will be disability-free, on average. Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013

CONSIDERATIONS OF AGING: MORE RESIDENTS IN THEIR 60 S & 70 S Most transition out of the labor force in their 60 s, impacting: § Daily activities § Transportation timing § Spending habits § Housing and migration Community impacts include: § Surplus of “free” time, creating opportunities for travel, volunteerism, encore careers § Population and housing shifts § Changes in labor force growth and dampened economic growth

CONSIDERATIONS OF AGING: MORE RESIDENTS IN THEIR 80 S+ Prevalence of disability and dementias, and need for long-term care will grow dramatically Private, public medical expenses will increase Gender imbalance much more prominent Likelihood of driving oneself falls Outliving financial resources of great concern

CHANGING DEMAND FOR PUBLIC SERVICES General Fund Expenditures Higher Education 7% All other areas 19% Health & Human Services 31% K-12 Education 42% Within Health & Human Services Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8. 5 billion) Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5. 5 billion) MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

PROJECTED INCREASE IN PUBLIC LTC COSTS MA long-term care services for enrollees age 65+ in MN totaled $1. 1 billion in FY 2015* Assume 85% increase in enrollment due to population aging Assume average annual rate of inflation of 2. 5% between 2015 and 2040 =$3. 8 billion annually for long-term care costs under the Medical Assistance program by 2040 * Includes federal and state spending.

MINNESOTA’S OLDER ADULTS REMAIN IN THE LABOR FORCE LONGER THAN BEFORE 100% Change just since 2000: 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% • • Early 60 s: +11 Pts Late 60 s: +5 Pts Early 70 s: +2 Pts Late 70 s: +1 Pt 40% 1980 2000 2010 -2014 30% 20% 10% 0% 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 75 -79 80+ Sources: IPUMS version of U. S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and American Community Survey. Minnesota State Demographic Center tabulations.

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME DECLINES WITH AGE Median Household Income by Age of Householder, 2010 -2014 $ 82 000 $ 80 000 $ 62 000 $ 41 000 $ 27 000 40 -49 50 -59 60 -69 70 -79 80+ Source: MN State Demographic Center analysis of ipums data, 2010 -2014 American Community Survey

HIGHER PERCENTAGES OF OLDER ADULTS (65+) – PATTERNING IS VERY LOCAL Source: Social Explorer

MINNESOTA’S POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 White (non. Hispanic) Of Color 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates

GROWING DIVERSITY AMONG MINNESOTA’S OLDER ADULTS Older adult population (age 60+) by major race group, 2014 1 200 000 1 000 Hispanic/Latino 800 000 Other/Multi 600 000 Asian NH 400 000 Am. Ind. NH 200 000 Black NH White NH Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series ipums. org 2014 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 -

LOW-INCOME OLDER ADULTS (AGE 60+) Older adults with income below 200% FPL 300 000 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 o in ul /M er Ot h La t ti n ia As . I nd Am k ac Bl W hi te 0 Number Percent Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series ipums. org 200% FPL FOR OLDER ADULTS 1 -person HH: $22, 600 2 -person HH: $31, 700

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