Survey Results University Students from Bosnia and Herzegovina

Survey Results University Students from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovakia April 2019

The surveys were undertaken at seven universities located in five countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia (Belgrade, Novi Sad), and Slovakia (Bratislava, Banská Bystrica). • In April 2019 1714 students were polled. Surveys are part of a University Students Debates’ project aimed at promoting democratic values among youth. The project is implemented jointly by MESA 10 (Slovakia) and CEAS (Serbia) and supported by the National Endowment for Democracy. Debates among seven university teams took place on April 8, 2019. If not indicated differently, the following results are from two rounds of surveys- in November 2018 and April 2019.

Students´debate survey: April, 2019 Sample structure Did you attend/watch the students´ debate on April 8, 2019? You are a student of a university in: 16% YES Slovakia 29, 1% Bosna/Her zegovina 13, 5% Moldova 15, 7% NO 84% Serbia 26, 9% Total number of students participating in the survey = 1 714 Montenegro 14, 8%

Students´debate – April 2019: Sample structure over 21 years female 45% 55% 44% bellow 21 years 56%

Content: • • • European Union and the Europarliament Elections NATO Perception of the history Civilizational belonging - East or West? + future prospects for my country Global developments Sources of information Students‘ own prospects for the future Country profiles Conclusions

1. EUROPEAN UNION AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS

EU improved its image – at least in some of the countries Perception of the EU is better than in the Fall Survey – 2/3 of all respondents see it as guarantor of national sovereignty and defender of values and interests (in the Fall 56%). The image of the EU is most positive in Montenegro and Slovakia, followed by Moldova, it is most critical in Serbia (Graph 1).

Graph 1: In your opinion, the European Union is: (responses in %) Guarantor of your national sovereignity and defender of values and interests A bureaucratic institution slowing your country´s development 86 79 71 66 59 43 33 28 24 23 13 6 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 8 21 12 6 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia 13 9 All respondents Source: April 2019

What the EP election would bring? Expectations regarding the results of upcoming (at time of survey) EP elections are split – 48% expect strengthening of the pro EU forces, 40% nationalist and xenophobic ones. The students in Montenegro have most optimistic expectations, Serbia and Bosnia/Herzegovina are on opposite side (Graph 2).

Graph 2: In your opinion, the upcoming May 2019 EU elections will strengthen: (responses in %) Pro-EU parties Nationalist and xenophobic parties National and xenophobic parties so much that it will be very difficult to form the EU Commission 76 61 55 53 50 48 40 37 32 31 27 23 18 18 8 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 1 Montenegro 12 10 Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

No enlargement hope related to the EP elections As a consequence of the European Parliament elections the enlargement process will be more difficult – this opinion prevails in all the countries (Graph 3).

Graph 3: As a result of 2019 May EU elections, joining the EU by Western Balkans and EU’s East will be: (responses in %) Easier 66 More difficult 65 Impossible 62 56 55 47 36 35 28 22 21 18 13 13 22 17 16 8 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Enlargement pessimism prevails Only minorities of respondents across the countries surveyed believe that by 2025 all the Western Balkans countries will become EU members, the strongest hope comes from Montenegro (Graph 4). The perception of probability of future enlargement reflects also the willingness to join the EU – Montenegro leads the Western Balkans countries in this respect.

Graph 4: In your opinion, by 2025, the EU will be enlarged by these countries: (responses in %) All Western Balkans countries Montenegro and Serbia No country will enter the EU 75 54 45 43 37 20 41 32 27 23 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 37 31 28 23 19 13 40 12 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

EU membership based on country’s performance or EU’s political decision? Respondents from the candidate countries do not believe that becoming an EU member depends on real progress and fulfillment of membership conditions. On the contrary: most of them believe it would be an outcome of a political decision of the EU only or a decision of the biggest EU members (Graph 5).

Graph 5: If your country became/will become a member state of the EU, it was/will be on the basis of: (responses in %) Real progress and fullfilment of membership conditions Political decision of the EU only 68 54 45 44 38 35 40 37 43 37 30 23 21 19 17 13 9 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova Montenegro 27 Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Summary • EU improved its image – at least in some of the countries Perception of the EU better than in the Fall Survey – 2/3 of all respondents see it as guarantor of national sovereignty and defender of values and interests (in the Fall 56%). The image of the EU is most positive in Montenegro and Slovakia, followed by Moldova, it is most critical in Serbia. • What the EP election would bring? Expectations regarding the results of the upcoming (at time of survey) EP elections are split – 48% expect strengthening of the pro EU forces, 40% nationalist and xenophobic ones. The students in Montenegro have most optimistic expectations, Serbia and Bosnia/Herzegovina are on opposite side. • No enlargement hope related to the EP elections As a consequence of the EP elections the enlargement process will be more difficult – this opinion prevails in all the countries. • Enlargement pessimism prevails Only minorities of respondents across the countries surveyed believe that by 2025 all the Western Balkans countries will become EU members, the biggest hopes are in Montenegro. The perception of probability of future enlargement reflects also the willingness to join the EU – Montenegro leads the Western Balkans countries in this respect. • EU membership based on country‘s performance or EU’s political decision? Respondents from the candidate countries do not believe that becoming an EU member depends on real progress and fulfillment of membership conditions. On the contrary; most of them believe it would be an outcome of a political decision of the EU only or a decision of the biggest EU members.

2. NATO

NATO after 70 years On average, 43% of students see NATO 70 years after its founding more relevant than ever. However, we see huge differences among the countries – positive view is shared by 61% Slovak students, but only by 15% in Serbia and 29% in Montenegro. In Serbia, there is also a high percentage of those who see NATO as a threat to international peace and stability (40%). Negative resentment towards NATO is a longstanding characteristic of Serbian students and we could presume that it is also wide-spread in the entire Serbian society. (Graph 6)

Graph 6: In your opinion, in 2019, 70 years after its founding, NATO is: (responses in %) More relevant than ever 58 Not relevant A threat to international peace and stability 61 57 45 45 42 40 34 29 29 28 14 Bosna/Herzegovina 26 Moldova 16 15 14 Montenegro 24 23 Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

NATO members since 1999 Most students think that for the states that joined NATO since 1999, the membership was their free and sovereign choice. Of course, this views correlates with the overall perception of NATO. For example - in Serbia many young people think that the decision to join NATO was dictated by NATO or USA. (Graph 7)

Graph 7: For the states that joined NATO since 1999, the membership was: (responses in %) Their free and sovereign choice A decision dictated by NATO 66 63 A decision dictated by the USA 64 50 45 37 40 23 26 25 16 30 Moldova 23 18 13 11 Bosna/Herzegovina 27 23 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Role of NATO We see a similar pattern in responses to question if NATO contributes to security and provides guarantees to its members – in Slovakia, more than ¾ of young respondents agree with that. (Graph 8)

Graph 8: In your opinion, the role of NATO is: (responses in %) Contributing to security and providing guarantees to its members Aimed against Russia NATO playes no role at all 76 74 61 59 55 48 37 31 27 30 21 18 8 Bosna/Herzegovina 8 Moldova 18 12 11 6 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Summary • On average, 43% of students see NATO 70 years after its founding more relevant than ever. However, we see huge differences among the countries – positive view is shared by 61% Slovak students, but only by 15% in Serbia and 29% in Montenegro. In Serbia, there is also a high percentage of those who see NATO as a threat to international peace and stability (40%). Negative resentment towards NATO is a longstanding characteristic of Serbian students and we could presume that it is also wide-spread in the entire Serbian society. • Most students think that for the states that joined NATO since 1999, the membership was their free and sovereign choice. Of course, this views correlate with the overall perception of NATO. For example - in Serbia, many young people think that the decision to join was dictated by NATO or USA. • We see a similar pattern in responses to question if NATO contributes to security and provides guarantees to its members – in Slovakia, more than ¾ of young respondents agree with that.

3. PERCEPTION OF HISTORY

Fall of the Berlin Wall Respondents of our survey were born after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the revolutions of 1989 which torn down the communist regimes in CEEC. How do they see the significance of the end of totalitarianism? We have asked about two perspectives – personal and for the country. It is interesting that the personal level is valued more positively – majority agreed that „Our people became free and responsible for itself“. On the other hand, as for the country, only 38% responded in that way. No surprise that the Slovak students are most positive in their evaluations, whereas the Serbian students are more negative. (Graphs 9, 10)

Graph 9: What significance has the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and of totalitarianism for you? (responses in %) Our people became free and responsible for itself Our people were thrown from stability to chaos It has no significance at all 78 68 54 51 41 38 32 39 31 30 23 18 11 9 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 22 20 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia 24 11 All respondents Source: April 2019

Graph 10: What significance has the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and of totalitarianism for your country? (responses in %) It becam free and coud take responsibility for itself My country was thrown from stability to chaos It has no significance at all 77 67 45 47 43 38 37 26 29 29 17 11 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 29 24 20 12 Montenegro Serbia 34 Slovakia 16 All respondents Source: April 2019

Historical achievements We also see huge discrepancies in opinions about the biggest historical achievement of country’s modern history – the Serbian and even more the Moldavian students are looking into a more distant past and value the end of the World War II, the other students put emphasis more on the recent milestones - fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of totalitarian regime and the present or future membership in the EU and/or NATO. Montenegro is leading in looking on future membership in western institutions. (Graph 11)

Graph 11: What would you consider to be biggest historical achievement of your country’s modern history? (responses in %) End of the World War II Fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of totalitarian regime in my 93 country Present or future membership in the EU and/or NATO 71 60 45 42 39 35 33 32 26 23 16 14 13 3 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 26 25 4 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Discussing history The transfer of intergeneration historical experience is relatively week in all countries – it is not very often discussed with the parents. Students share the view that there is enough attention to the historical events in curricula – in Slovakia; the quest for more attention is comparatively strongest. (Graphs 12, 13)

Graph 12: Did you ever discuss the Fall of Berlin Wall in 1989 and of totalitarianism with your parents? (responses in %) Yes Very rarely, almost not Absolutely not, I do not consider these events worthy of a talk 70 55 48 47 29 24 13 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova 27 25 24 21 31 24 20 17 Montenegro 53 49 Serbia Slovakia 23 All respondents Source: April 2019

Graph 13: Does the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and of totalitarianism deserve deeper and wider attention in the curricula of your country’ school system, including universities? (responses in %) Yes No, it is OK as it is today 65 63 44 They do not deserve even the attention than they have 61 39 36 39 35 29 24 17 Bosna/Herzegovina 14 Moldova 16 43 28 18 18 11 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Summary • Respondents of our survey were born after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the revolutions of 1989 which torn down the communist regimes in CEEC. How do they see the significance of the end of totalitarianism? We have asked about two perspectives – personal and for the country. It is interesting that the personal level is valued more positively – majority agreed that „Our people became free and responsible for itself“. On the other hand as for the country only 38% responded in that way. No surprise that the Slovak students are most positive in their evaluations, whereas the Serbian students are more negative. • We also see huge discrepancies in opinions about the biggest historical achievement of country’s modern history – the Serbian and even more the Moldavian students are looking into a more distant past and value the end of the World War II, the other students put emphasis more on the recent milestones - fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the end of totalitarian regime and the present or future membership in the EU and/or NATO. Montenegro is leading in looking on future membership in western institutions. • The transfer of intergeneration historical experience is relatively week in all countries – it is not very often discussed with the parents. Students share the view that there is enough attention to the historical events in curricula – in Slovakia; the quest for more attention is comparatively strongest.

4. CIVILIZATIONAL BELONGING EAST OR WEST? + FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR MY COUNTRY

Civilizational belonging - present The question of civilizational belonging is very salient one – majorities in Montenegro, Moldova and also in Slovakia say yes to the West and its institutions. Only in Serbia the most frequent response is „in between“ – “my country has a special model of governance, I want it to be a part of neither the West nor the East”. Also, belonging to the East is most wide-spread in Serbia (25%). (Graph 14)

Graph 14: At the present time, where do you believe that your country belongs to: (responses in %) The West The East In between. My country has a special model of governance and it belongs neither to the West not the East 84 74 55 52 54 49 33 35 33 25 15 Bosna/Herzegovina 20 12 Moldova 14 10 14 16 6 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Civilizational belonging - future With one exception – Serbia – students from all countries want to belong to the West in the future and to live in a system of democratic governance. (Graph 15)

Graph 15: In the future, where would you want your country to belong to? (responses in %) The West and its institutions (EU/NATO) The regimes with rising authoritarian governance A regime with a strong leader and substantial limitations of freedoms and liberties for groups of 78 people 67 66 62 56 45 30 15 18 15 25 25 23 15 14 19 19 8 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Successful countries? However, there is a gap between reality and wishes. In all countries with the exception of Slovakia the students see their countries as not successful. In Slovakia, the majority of students consider the country to be successful. (Graph 16)

Graph 16: Do you believe that you live in a country that can be called successful? (responses in %) YES NO 71 71 68 71 62 59 41 32 Bosna/Herzegovina 29 Moldova 29 Montenegro 38 29 Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Summary • The question of civilizational belonging is very salient one – majorities in Montenegro, Moldova and also in Slovakia say yes to the West and its institutions. Only in Serbia the most frequent response is „in between“ – “my country has a special model of governance, I want it to be a part of neither the West nor the East”. Also, belonging to the East is most wide-spread in Serbia (25%). • With one exception – Serbia – students from all countries want to belong to the West in the future and to live in a system of democratic governance. • However, there is a gap between reality and wishes. In all countries with the exception of Slovakia the students see their countries as not successful. In Slovakia, the majority of students consider the country to be successful.

5. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

Global governance Global international affairs are not seen with a lot of optimism - many see that there is more competition, nationalism and isolation and less cooperation. More optimism is to be found in Moldova and Slovakia. As for the future, students in Montenegro are the most optimistic. (Graphs 17, 18)

Graph 17: In what kind of system of governance would you like to live? (responses in %) Democracy with its institutions A regime with a strong leader and some limitations of freedoms and liberties for all citizens 81 75 71 62 69 59 31 31 19 14 7 Bosna/Herzegovina 5 Moldova 23 20 6 Montenegro 10 Serbia 9 Slovakia 8 All respondents Source: April 2019

Graph 18: At present, in international affairs around the globe you are witnessing: (responses in %) More cooperation More competition, nationalism and isolation The world is the same 78 61 59 56 52 47 36 30 28 20 23 16 21 20 14 17 14 8 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Graph 19: In the next 3 -4 years, around the globe we can expect: (responses in %) More cooperation More competition Same cooperation as today More conflicts 66 45 32 29 22 17 37 31 29 18 16 14 14 4 Bosna/Herzegovina Moldova Montenegro 27 27 27 18 19 Serbia Slovakia 28 29 25 18 8 All respondents Source: April 2019

Summary • Global international affairs are not seen with a lot of optimism - many see that there is more competition, nationalism and isolation and less cooperation. More optimism is to be found in Moldova and Slovakia. As for the future, students in Montenegro are the most optimistic.

6. SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Not only social media • We know from other sources that young people take information above all from the internet and social networks, most of them do not take it for granted, they check the information with other sourcesand that is a very positive signal. Moldovan students incline more than others to take such information for granted. Hoaxes or untrue information on social network are mostly ignored. (Graph 20, 21)

Graph 20: Do you take the information from the internet and social networks for granted? (responses in %) Yes No, I check it with other sources Internet is not an infosource for me 80 63 63 63 62 57 37 28 27 24 23 18 Bosna/Herzegovina 14 13 10 6 Moldova 10 2 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Graph 21: When you encounter a hoax or untrue information on social network, what do you do? (responses in %) Ignore it Argue against it Share it with your friends Report it/Make fun of it 75 51 44 38 32 32 35 32 29 27 21 18 12 Bosna/Herzegovina 14 9 Moldova 3 15 22 20 13 14 18 18 8 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Summary • We know from other sources that young people take information above all from internet and social networks, most of them do not take it for granted, they check the information with other sourcesand that is a very positive signal. Moldovan students incline more than others to take such information for granted. Hoaxes or untrue information on social network are mostly ignored.

7. STUDENTS´ OWN PROSPECTS AND FUTURE

Preferred job • On average, one third of respondents want to work for the government or international governmental organization, the most wanted option is to work for a private company. (Graph 22)

Graph 22: After completing your studies, you would like to work for: ? (responses in %) The government or international governmental organization Private company Yourself, i. e. to be self employed No to be employed at all 47 45 41 40 28 39 34 30 23 Bosna/Herzegovina 33 25 24 5 5 38 33 28 27 2 33 5 4 4 7 Moldova Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

Vision of future at home • However, young people are not very confident about their country´s future – only minorities think it will improve significantly within the next 3 -4 years whereas more think it will be worse. Regarding the countries´ future development we see clear differences between the Slovak students and the students from other countries. We could conclude that the young people living in a country which managed to join the EU and NATO see the country’s future more positive, and see the improvement of political situation. (Graph 23)

Graph 23: In your opinion, within the next 3 -4 years, the political situation in your country will (responses in %) Improve significantly Improve slightly 49 48 Remain the same 47 46 34 33 27 21 21 10 Bosna/Herzegovina 27 18 9 9 Moldova Get even worse 32 28 23 20 11 8 Montenegro 11 Serbia Slovakia 14 36 18 All respondents Source: April 2019

Impact on political life • In all the countries voting is understood as the activity with greatest impact in political life participation, it is also most wide-spread. More than half of the students (57%) see themselves as being active citizens, in or outside the government. As for the being in the government the most active are students form Slovakia and Montenegro. (Graph 24, 25)

Graph 24: In your opinion, how can you have the greatest impact on political life in your country? (responses in %) Voting in election Supporting a petition Taking part in a demostration Joining a political party Working in the government I can have no impact at all 49 32 30 25 18 15 18 8 9 Bosna/Herzegovina 14 13 14 11 Moldova 31 29 20 18 23 21 15 7 4 Montenegro 10 17 14 15 17 9 9 Serbia 14 13 15 13 14 11 Slovakia 5 All respondents Source: April 2019

Graph 25: What would be your most preferred way of participating in the political life of your country? (responses in %) Being in the government Active, but outside the gov´t Voting in the elections No politics 42 41 33 31 22 21 24 27 23 13 30 34 32 Moldova 31 15 28 14 9 6 Bosna/Herzegovina 27 26 23 17 31 Montenegro Serbia Slovakia All respondents Source: April 2019

8. COUNTRY PROFILES

Montenegro: Trinity of Excellence The students from Montenegro: • 1 A Most frequently (86%) think that the EU is Guarantor of national sovereignty and defender of values and interests (Graph 1) • 1 B Most frequently (66%) think that for the states that joined NATO since 1999 (means also their country), the membership was a ´free and sovereign choice´ (Graph 9) • 2 More than 90% of them consider the Present or future membership in the EU and/or NATO to be biggest historical achievement of their country’s modern history (Graph 11) • 3 More often than others think that their country belongs to the West – 84% (Graph 14) and see the country´s future there – 78% (Graph 15)

Graph a: MONTENEGRO - In your opinion, within the next 3 -4 years, the political situation in your country will be. . . (gender differences are not very significant, in %) Young men 17 7 Young women 21 25 51 9 28 42 Improve significantly Improve slightly Remain the same Get even worse

Graph b: MONTENEGRO - What would be your most preferred way of participating in the political life of your country? (gender differences – young men incline more to governmental participation, young women more often prefer to be active outside of government, responses in %) Young men 21 31 15 Young women 16 46 19 8 44 Being in the government Active, but outside the government Voting in the elections No politics

9. CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions • The April 2019 survey shows several similarities but also differences among the students from five countries with different political background.

Conclusions • Above all we see that Slovak students who grew up in a country that is member of EU and NATO for 15 years are different in some views. It is most visible when we ask about the future prospects of their country (Q 23) – 23% of Slovak students see significant improvement, in all other countries the share of “optimists” is around 10%. Similarly – 59% of Slovaks see their country as successful, in all other countries the share of those (positively thinking) is only around 30% (Q 16).

Conclusions • The evaluations are not given by different personal characteristics but more by the objective political and social conditions which give the reasons for more optimism and belief for the future. Slovak students who have the experience from living in a country which is already integrated also more often believe that the integration process and the accession decision is based on fulfilment of criteria and the applicant´s performance and not on voluntaristic decisions by outside actors (Q 5, Q 6).

Conclusions • On the other hand – young people in the Western Balkans and Moldova see the integration into EU and/or NATO as good plan for their home countries – it clear from questions Q 8, Q 14 and others).