Surveillance and early warning systems for climatesensitive diseases

Surveillance and early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases in Vietnam (2015– 17) Hu Suk Lee Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) regional meeting Hanoi, Vietnam 28 November 2018

Outline • Introduction of project • Introduction of field studies • Project achievements

Early warning and forecasting system concept Main objectives • To develop early warning systems of climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) (prediction/disease models and risk maps) • To conduct epidemiological investigations of CSDs • To support capacity building for public health Decision support tools Notification to farmers Climate Data Zoonotic/livestock diseases - Surveillance Data - Field surveys Responses - Vaccination - Movement control - Quarantine

Introduction of field studies

Sampling areas • Swine urine/sera samples from 5 provinces - Total sample size sera: 1, 959; urine: 1, 920 - 385 samples / province - Slaughter houses - JE, Lepto (sera) and AFM 1(urine) - KAP survey (252 people) • Maize samples from 6 provinces - Total sample size: 2, 370 - 385 samples / province - AFB 1 - KAP survey (551 people) *Sample size (each province): 50% prevalence, 95% CI and precision 5% Except for NIVR

Blood sampling - Slaughterhouses

Maize sampling

Research team

Annual incidence rates for lepto and VE in humans Malaria incidence *Previous study showed that 17~71% of VE were caused by rate JE in Vietnam

Seasonality of VE in humans, 2004– 13 4 -5 times higher than Feb *Previous study showed that 17~71% of VE were caused by JE

Project achievements

Pestforecast (2015– 17) • Research outcomes • 9 international papers (peer-reviewed), 2 papers (under review) and 3 papers (preparing) • Research briefs (3) • 18 conference presentations/posters • 1 book chapter (UNEP: Zoonoses: Blurred lines of emergent disease and ecosystem health) • Pestforecast website https: //pestforecast. wikispaces. com/About+the+project • Training: 2 master students • Capacity building • Vet. epidemiology/GIS training

Capacity building/sharing information

Research contributions and challenges • Evidence-based tools established (RC) - Risk maps, seasonality and climate associated models • One Health research partnership (RC) - A transdisciplinary team • Lack of surveillance systems (C) - Pushed back on the priority list / diagnostic tools • Lack of resources for implementing tools (C) - Less interaction with farmers/small holders (budget issue)

Any Questions? Thank you h. s. lee@cgiar. org

better lives through livestock ilri. org This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4. 0 International Licence.