SUNTRUST ECONOMIC FORECAST AND MARKET OUTLOOK November 2018
SUNTRUST ECONOMIC FORECAST AND MARKET OUTLOOK November 2018
Table of Contents 2 SECTION I Introductions & Sun. Trust Overview 3 SECTION II Economic & Freight Environment 6 SECTION III M&A and Valuation Discussion 14 SECTION IV Interest Rate Market Update and Financing Alternatives 20 www. suntrustrh. com
Section I Introductions & Sun. Trust Overview
Sun. Trust & Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey Team Background Introduction: Matt has over 15 years of investment banking experience encompassing numerous capital markets transactions across a variety of Industrial sectors including: transportation and logistics, facility and industrial services, heavy manufacturing and automotive. Matt joined Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey (“STRH”) in May of 2014. Matt Ksiazek Director & Coverage Banker, Transportation & Logistics Investment Banking Experience: (i) Transportation and Logistics, (ii) M&A Strategies and LBO Financing, (iii) Capital Markets and Risk Management Education & Certifications: Bachelor of Science from Miami University and Masters of Business Administration from Emory University Introduction: Taylor has over 20 years of experience serving Sun. Trust’s clients, including advising, structuring, and arranging transactions for a diverse set of clients in the middle market and municipal space. Taylor currently heads Sun. Trust Bank’s Logistics and Supply Chain Industry Specialty and partners with teammates to provide tailored solutions and advice to clients operating in this critical and dynamic industry. Taylor Howerton SVP & Commercial Industry Manager, Logistics & Supply Chain Experience: (i) Logistics, Transportation, and Port Finance, (ii) Tax‐exempt Private and Public Bond Financing, (iii) Capital Markets and Risk Management Education & Certifications: Bachelor of Science in Biology from Florida State University and has held FINRA Series 7 & 63 Introduction: Will has over 10 years of experience in the banking industry comprised of advising, underwriting, and structuring solutions for a diverse set of clients across the corporate banking and middle market spaces. Will currently serves as a Commercial Relationship Manager covering the transportation and logistics sector in Georgia where he leverages a broad array of Sun. Trust partners to help clients achieve their strategic objectives. Core themes include liquidity events for Owners, M&A, and tailored financing solutions. William “Will” Buchly SVP & Commercial Relationship Manager, Transportation & Logistics Sector Georgia 4 www. suntrustrh. com Experience: (i) Transportation and Logistics, (ii) M&A Strategies and LBO Financing, (iii) Risk Management and Debt Structuring Education & Certifications: Bachelor of Science in Psychology with a Minor in Philosophy from University of Georgia and Masters of Business Administration with dual concentrations in Finance and Real Estate from Georgia State University
Sun. Trust’s Logistics & Supply Chain Industry Group The Logistics & Supply Chain Industry Group brings industry-focused solutions to meet our clients’ unique needs • Our sea, air, and inland ports serve as an epicenter of commerce with logistics, surface transportation, and distribution networks intersecting all aspects of our clients’ needs • The Industry Group helps clients navigate the opportunities and challenges associated with rapidly evolving economies and global supply chains. The Group leverages the entire Bank to optimize and efficiently address the specific needs of our Logistics and Supply Chain clients: Corporate Financial Risk Management Asset Based Lending Equipment Finance Investment Banking Global Trade Solutions § Transportation Management § Contract Logistics / Warehousing § Cold Storage § Last Mile 200+ Clients Our Clients’ Impact on Trade & Commerce Treasury & Payment Solutions Tax-Exempt Finance Logistics Services Sun. Trust’s clients move more than 8. 5 million TEUs per year Over 100 million tons each year are moved through ports banked by Sun. Trust 20% Surface Transportation Ports / Maritime § Truckload § Less‐than‐ Truckload § Intermodal § Bulk/Specialty/ Waste § Short Line Rail § Municipal and Private Ports § Terminal Operators § Barge, Pilot and Navigational Services Percentage of US TEUs annually imported / exported by Sun. Trust clients Supply Chain § Supply Chain Manufacturing § Transportation Equipment Distribution & Lessors Illustrative Deals $100, 000 www. suntrustrh. com $258, 750, 000 has been acquired by Senior Credit Facility Joint Lead Arranger / Syndication Agent 5 ~$2 B of Credit Commitments Convertible Notes due 2024 Active Bookrunner Served as Exclusive Financial Advisor to American Global Logistics, LLC
Section II Economic & Freight Environment
U. S. Economic Backdrop A strong U. S. economic backdrop is supportive of favorable fundamentals in the transportation & logistics sector GDP and Unemployment ISM Manufacturing Total Business-Inventories-to-Sales Consumer Confidence Index Source: Bloomberg, FRED, The Conference Board 7 www. suntrustrh. com
U. S. Freight Demand Environment All modes of freight traffic have been strong through the first half of 2018 leading to tighter capacity and increased pricing U. S. Major Port Container Growth Cass Freight Index - Shipments 1. 35 2016 2017 2018 East Coast 3. 7% 50 1. 25 45 36. 9 40 39. 1 37. 5 West Coast GR Projected CA TEUS (MMs) 40. 9 41. 4 51. 7% 52. 2% 35 1. 15 30 25 44. 3 45. 7 51. 8% 50. 9% 54. 4% 54. 5% 53. 7% 45. 6% 45. 5% 46. 3% 48. 3% 47. 8% 48. 2% 49. 1% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E 20 1. 05 15 10 5 0 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr U. S. Rail Intermodal & Carloads Excl. Coal, Grain, and Petroleum Products 90 0% 85 80 (5%) 75 420, 000 400, 000 380, 000 360, 000 Coal, grain, and petroleum are excluded as they are relatively inelastic to economic conditions Mar Feb 340, 000 Jan Sep‐ 18 Mar‐ 18 Sep‐ 17 Mar‐ 17 Sep‐ 16 Mar‐ 16 Sep‐ 15 Mar‐ 15 Sep‐ 14 Mar‐ 14 Sep‐ 13 Mar‐ 13 Sep‐ 12 Mar‐ 12 Sep‐ 11 Mar‐ 11 (10%) Sep‐ 10 70 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Institute for Supply Management, Dat. com U. S. Major ports include: Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York / New Jersey, Savannah, Seattle / Tacoma, Oakland, Virginia, Houston, Charleston, Jacksonville, Miami, and Everglades 8 www. suntrustrh. com Dec 95 440, 000 Nov 5% 2016 Oct 100 2017 Sep 10% 105 2018 460, 000 6 -week moving average 110 480, 000 Aug 115 15% Yo. Y % Growth / (Decline) Jul ATA Truck Tonnage Index Jun 120 May ATA Truck Tonnage Apr Mar Feb Jan 0. 95
Trucking Industry Dynamics Trucking fundamentals remain positive as the industry continues to benefit from tighter capacity, strong demand higher rates Observations Truck Spot Rate Cass Freight Shipments & ISM PMI Index Driver Turnover: Large TL vs. Small TL Driver Shortage § Tighter capacity as a result of driver shortages, ELD and other regulations § Freight demand is supported by a strong manufacturing and industrial environment, construction activity, consumer spending growth, and the e‐commerce surge; Cass Freight Shipments Index increased at an average of 10. 0% YTD 2018 § Tighter capacity and new drive ‐time regulations enforced by ELDs have driven the increase in truckload rates; shippers are paying higher rates to ensure capacity § The driver challenge is expected to persist; while turnover at large truckers has increased to its highest level in three years (98% in 2 Q 18), turnover at smaller carriers has declined steadily since 3 Q 17 (72% in 2 Q 18) 100. 0% 95. 0% 90. 0% 85. 0% 80. 0% 75. 0% 70. 0% 65. 0% 60. 0% Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, American Trucking Association 9 www. suntrustrh. com 2 Q 16 3 Q 16 4 Q 16 1 Q 17 Large TL 2 Q 17 3 Q 17 Small TL 4 Q 17 1 Q 18 2 Q 18
Trucking Industry Dynamics (cont. ) Observations Class 8 Net New Orders (# of new units) § The spike in Class 8 orders in late 2014 / early 2015 reflected a strong freight demand pricing environment; recent supply/demand dynamics are reflective of the biggest capacity constraint – drivers — In order to retain and recruit drivers, carriers are increasing pay and buying new fuel‐efficient and more driver‐friendly trucks § The third quarter of 2018 set a new historical record with 146, 800 Class 8 orders; September Class 8 order activity was the tenth best month FTR has on record, with most of 2018 hitting all‐time highs § Active truck utilization remains at cycle high of 100%, while estimated driver shortage is most severe this cycle Source: Wall Street Research, Bloomberg, FTR 10 Accelerated New Net Orders www. suntrustrh. com Active Truck Utilization
Truckload Dashboard Rates Observations § Supply‐demand imbalance persists ‐ Demand indicators generally strong in the last twelve months ‐ Capacity remains constrained as a result of regulations and worsening driver shortage Ø The consensus view is that the tight supply‐demand dynamic is structural in nature and will continue over the near‐ to medium‐ term § Tighter capacity and new drive ‐time regulations enforced by ELDs have driven the increase in truckload rates ‐ Truck spot rates have increased an average of ~20% YTD 18 year‐over‐year, as shippers are paying higher rates to ensure capacity Source: Wall Street Research, Bloomberg, FTR 11 www. suntrustrh. com Dry Van TL Spot Rate Jan‐ 14 Feb‐ 14 Mar‐ 14 Apr‐ 14 May‐ 14 Jun‐ 14 Jul‐ 14 Aug‐ 14 Sep‐ 14 Oct‐ 14 Nov‐ 14 Dec‐ 14 Jan‐ 15 Feb‐ 15 Mar‐ 15 Apr‐ 15 May‐ 15 Jun‐ 15 Jul‐ 15 Aug‐ 15 Sep‐ 15 Oct‐ 15 Nov‐ 15 Dec‐ 15 Jan‐ 16 Feb‐ 16 Mar‐ 16 Apr‐ 16 May‐ 16 Jun‐ 16 Jul‐ 16 Aug‐ 16 Sep‐ 16 Oct‐ 16 Nov‐ 16 Dec‐ 16 Jan‐ 17 Feb‐ 17 Mar‐ 17 Apr‐ 17 May‐ 17 Jun‐ 17 Jul‐ 17 Aug‐ 17 Sep‐ 17 Oct‐ 17 Nov‐ 17 Dec‐ 17 Jan‐ 18 Feb‐ 18 Mar‐ 18 Apr‐ 18 May‐ 18 Jun‐ 18 Jul‐ 18 Aug‐ 18 Sep‐ 18 Supply Class 8 Inv. Class 8 Build Days relative to rate Yo. Y New Orders Utilization & Capacity Class 8 Cancellation % 3 MMA FTR Utilization Market Demand Index Sales as % of Replacement Class 8 Demand Inventories/ Sales Ratio US Personal ISM – PMI Savings New Orders/ (Disposable) Inventories Competition for Dry Van LTL Flatbed – Load Reefer – Load Shipments to Truck Ratio NSA 3 MMA Yo. Y
Logistics – Key Sector Trends Key Industry Trends Driving Industry Consolidation § Ability to provide multimodal solutions, while smaller firms Larger Firms Have Competitive Advantages typically provide only one option § Access to many sources of available capacity through larger networks § Proprietary technology platforms linking carriers with customers § It remains “easier” to buy than build Increasing Technology Requirements / Integrated Delivery Models § Shipper expectations: visibility into supply chains and freight tracking Air Freight The resurgence in air freight demand has been driven by e-commerce growth and stronger global economy and trade Industry FTKs (billion per month) Actual § Technology differentiators: real‐time shipment tracking at an SKU Level; analyses about potential disruptions to deliveries and supply chains § Amazon testing its own delivery service to control fulfillment Seasonally Adjusted § Exponential growth of e‐commerce sales has altered the traditional supply chain E-commerce Growth § Large, multimodal freight brokers to benefit; with the ability to offer a wide range of services across multiple geographies and add scale on short notice § Demand for last‐mile e‐commerce delivery is one of the biggest drivers of strong consolidation in the logistics industry U. S. 3 PL Market Size (2000 – 2019 P) ($ in billions) Source: Wall Street and Industry Research 12 www. suntrustrh. com E-commerce Sales (as % of total Sales) Online Retail is expected to account for 17% of retail sales by 2022
Question & Answer Section 13 www. suntrustrh. com
Section III M&A and Valuation Discussion
Transportation Valuation Continuum Forecasted EV / EBITDA (Calendar Year 2018 E and 2019 E) 2018 E Asset-Based Truckload 10 -Year EV / NTM EBITDA Source: Capital IQ as of 11/2/2018 15 www. suntrustrh. com Less-than-Truckload Carriers 2019 E Asset-Light Transport Forwarders and Logistics Integrators
Trucking M&A Market Dynamics Significant M&A activity across the trucking landscape in recent quarters as the sector continues to benefit from positive trends Sector Themes Driving Trucking M&A Activity Industry fundamentals remain very strong; sector participants are looking to add capacity by acquiring external fleets & drivers Renewed sponsor interest in the sector and strong momentum in recent quarters will provide attractive tailwinds throughout 2018 § A strong freight market coupled with capacity shortages Favorable Industry Fundamentals expected to lead to double‐digit truckload rate increases in 2018 M&A Transactions Across the Sector(1) § Capacity remains tight as driver shortages continue, and ELD and other regulations have removed capacity from the market § Trucking stocks have seen strong growth in recent quarters; Strong Balance Sheets the combination of an improving freight market, supply chain disruptions and driver shortage drove record valuation multiples § Large players have financial flexibility to continue to grow by investing in equipment and via acquisitions § Organic growth highly correlated to GDP Organic Growth Tied to GDP § Sector participants are looking to acquire to supplement inorganic growth, benefit from economies of scale, add drivers, expand geography and/or customer base, and add differentiated technology § Capacity is difficult to find, and available loads per truck Capacity Challenges have increased or remained just as strong as they were in a robust 4 Q § The driver market remains extremely tough, which makes organic fleet growth very difficult; carriers are pursuing external fleet growth in order to acquire drivers (1) Based on STRH proprietary database for trucking M&A transactions that the Investment Banking team tracks Source: Capital IQ, Company filings 16 www. suntrustrh. com Private Equity Momentum (1)
Trends are in Support of a Strong Seller’s Market Health of Industrial Sector Macro Environment Public and Private Valuation Driver Shortage Industry Specific Trends Availability of Capital Improved Demand Tightening Capacity Business & Consumer Confidence Increased Rates Peak Valuation Company Life Cycle Valuation Growth Stage Early Growth Stage Start-Up / Early Stage § High growth prospects § Lower valuation given the limited history and lower earnings; higher risk may deter premium valuation § Proven business model drives buyer/investor interest § Growth prospects may increase valuation § Sales and earnings are still trending upward, which supports a higher valuation § A solid earnings trend enables a buyer to pay a higher price and still meet its return on investment criteria Time 17 www. suntrustrh. com Maturity Stage § Lacks the appeal of a growth company, but can still be an attractive target; has established itself in the market, has a long history of earnings, and provides established platform Declining Stage § Attractive to turnaround specialists with a unique skillset and resources to effect a turnaround § Narrow field of buyers
Logistics M&A Market Dynamics Logistics M&A market continues to be highly active, with significant interest from both strategic and sponsor buyers Sector Themes Driving Logistics M&A Activity Various themes driving strong M&A volumes across the logistics landscape; technology requirements and e-commerce growth remain key themes The past few years have been characterized by higher levels of M&A activity and sponsors becoming increasingly more active in the space § U. S. 3 PL market has grown at a 6. 7% CAGR from 2000 to Favorable Industry Fundamentals 2017 E and is projected to expand at a 3. 4% CAGR from 2017 E to 2019 P M&A Transactions Across the Sector (1) § E‐commerce continues to be a significant driver; Online Retail is expected to account for ~17. 0% of retail sales by 2022 versus ~9. 5% currently § Ability to provide multimodal solutions is becoming more important Size Offers Competitive Advantages § Access to many sources of available capacity § Proprietary technology platforms linking carriers with customers § It remains “easier” to buy than build § Shipper expectations: visibility into supply chains and freight Increasing Technology Requirements tracking § Technology differentiators: real‐time shipment tracking at an SKU Level; analyses about potential disruptions to deliveries and supply chains § Amazon testing its own delivery service to control fulfillment § Exponential growth of e‐commerce sales has altered the traditional supply chain E-commerce Growth § Large, multimodal freight brokers to benefit, with the ability to offer a wide range of services across multiple geographies and add scale on short notice § Increasing demand for last‐mile e‐commerce delivery (1) Based on STRH proprietary database for logistics M&A transactions that the Investment Banking team tracks Source: Capital IQ, Company filings 18 www. suntrustrh. com Private Equity Momentum (1)
Question & Answer Section 19 www. suntrustrh. com
Section IV Interest Rate Market Update and Financing Alternatives
Historical Interest Rates 1 -month LIBOR since Inception (December 1984) 10 yr US Treasury: Past 50 Years Source: Bloomberg 21 www. suntrustrh. com
1 m. L & 3 m. L LIBOR 1 m. L & 3 m. L have started to pace ahead of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle The Fed raised rates by +25 bps at the September 2018 FOMC Meeting, the new Fed Funds target range is 2. 00% to 2. 25% Expected Fed Hikes 2018 2019 2020 Reasons for LIBOR Uptick § § § Source: Bloomberg 22 www. suntrustrh. com Treasury oversupply has increased yields forcing commercial paper (which influences LIBOR submissions) to be more competitive Repatriation has created more demand for the USD The Fed Balance Sheet unwind has constricted supply for the USD
FOMC Participants’ Policy Inclinations The recent appointment of Mary Daly to the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank could rebalance the recently Hawkish policy-making board, and potentially impact the final two meetings of 2018. Board of Governors¹ Dove Dovish Neutral Hawkish Hawk Projected Funds Rate by FOMC Members Jerome Powell Lael Brainard Richard Clarida Voting Regional Presidents Randal Quarles John Williams Thomas Barkin Median Fed Economic Projections Released September 2018 Raphael Bostic Loretta Mester Mary Daly² “Both household spending and business investment are expanding briskly, and the overall growth outlook remains favorable. Fiscal policy is boosting the economy, ongoing job gains are raising incomes and confidence, and overall financial conditions remain accommodative. ” Source: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve. Policy Stance subjective based on STRH views. 1) Richard Clarida and Michelle Bowman, confirmation pending; 2) Mary Daly was selected to lead the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, effective October 1 st, 2018 23 www. suntrustrh. com
Financing Structures Structure Revolver/Leases Company Profile • Generally smaller companies seeking to maximize liquidity and amortization • Financing tied to specific assets Benefits • Generally greater loan to values ABL Revolver Cash Flow Revolver • More highly levered companies that prefer greater flexibility around fleet management • Less levered companies, more asset lite business models • Financing based on appraised value so it accommodates new and used fleet • No ongoing requirement for field exams and appraisals • No expressed amortization requirements • No amortization requirements • Springing covenant structure may be available for larger companies • Generally more attractive pricing • Access to liquidity based on leverage, not assets • Tracking individual leases may become cumbersome as fleet grows Considerations • More difficult to finance used equipment or aged fleet • Generally includes amortization 24 www. suntrustrh. com • Monitoring requirements including ongoing appraisals and field exams • Maintenance covenants
Question & Answer Section 25 www. suntrustrh. com
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Trust Banks, Inc. and its subsidiaries, including Sun. Trust Bank. Debt and equity underwriting, trading, research and sales, loan syndications, municipal securities trading and sales, and mergers and acquisitions advisory services are offered by Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Cash management, loans and loan related products, foreign exchange, risk management products and services and agency services including derivatives products are provided by Sun. Trust Bank. Important Disclosures about Loans with 0% LIBOR Floors: Some floating rate loan facilities, including those from Sun. Trust, are subject to a 0% floor on LIBOR, meaning that if LIBOR falls below zero, LIBOR will be deemed to be zero. You should review your loan documentation with your legal counsel to determine whether any such limitation applies to your loan. Interest rate swaps do not typically contain a 0% floor on LIBOR. If you choose to enter into an interest rate swap, you should discuss with your legal, financial, tax and accounting advisors whether to include a 0% LIBOR floor in the interest rate swap. Sun. Trust Bank, its representatives and affiliates make no representation or recommendation and are not providing any advice with respect to your determination. LIBOR DISCONTINUANCE RISK: The UK Financial Conduct Authority will no longer use its influence to compel banks to make LIBOR submissions after the end of 2021, creating possible uncertainty around the existence of LIBOR after that time. You should review the risks and considerations in the disclosures published by ISDA (available at https: //www. isda. org/a/UE 8 EE/IBOR-Alternative-Reference-Rates-Disclosure-March-2018. pdf). © 2018 Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey is a federally registered service mark of Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. 26 www. suntrustrh. com
Important Disclosures All materials, including proposed terms and conditions, are indicative and for discussion purposes only. Finalized terms and conditions are subject to further discussion and negotiation and will be evidenced by a formal written agreement. Except as required by applicable law, we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, to you or to any person as to the content of the information contained herein. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions only as of the date indicated. Any historical price(s) or value(s) are also only as of the date indicated. We are under no obligation to update opinions or other information. Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey is the trade name for the corporate and investment banking services of Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. and its subsidiaries, including Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. , member FINRA and SIPC. Debt and equity underwriting, trading, research and sales, loan syndications, municipal securities trading and sales, and mergers and acquisitions advisory services are offered by Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Loans and loan related products, foreign exchange, risk management products and services and agency services are offered by various non‐broker dealer subsidiaries of Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. Sun. Trust Private Wealth Management, International Wealth Management, Business Owner Specialty Group, Sports and Entertainment Group, and Legal and Medical Specialty Groups are marketing names used by Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. and the following affiliates: Banking and trust products and services are provided by Sun. Trust Bank. Investment advisory products and services are offered by Gen. Spring Family Offices, LLC, investment advisers registered with the SEC. Sun. Trust Bank and its affiliates and the directors, officers, employees and agents of Sun. Trust Bank and its affiliates (collectively, “Sun. Trust”) are not permitted to give legal or tax advice. While Sun. Trust can assist clients in the areas of estate and financial planning, only an attorney can draft legal documents, provide legal services and give legal advice. Clients of Sun. Trust should consult with their legal and tax advisors prior to entering into any financial transaction or estate plan. Because it cannot provide legal services or give legal advice, Sun. Trust’s services or advice relating to “estate planning” are limited to (i) financial planning, multi‐generational wealth planning, investment strategy, (ii) management of trust assets, investment management and trust administration, and (iii) working with the client’s legal and tax advisors in the implementation of an estate plan. These materials are educational in nature. The implications and risks of a transaction may be different from individual to individual based upon past estate, gift and income tax strategies employed and each individual’s unique financial and familial circumstances and risk tolerances. Treasury Management Services offered through Sun. Trust Bank, Member FDIC. Commercial credit services provided by Sun. Trust Bank. Standard credit criteria apply. Sun. Trust Bank is an Equal Housing Lender. © 2018 Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. Sun. Trust Bank, member FDIC. Sun. Trust and Sun. Trust Robinson Humphrey are federally registered service marks of Sun. Trust Banks, Inc. 27 www. suntrustrh. com
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