Summary of PIPII Risk Workshop Shekhar Mishra PIPII

Summary of PIP-II Risk Workshop Shekhar Mishra PIP-II Management Meeting 4/14/2017

Project Risk Management is a process. Risk Workshop was an important step in this process. Risk Management Assessment is a required document for CD-1 Independent Cost Review 2 PIP-II Risk Management

Risk Management Requirement between CD-0 and CD-1 • The Project Shall develop a preliminary Risk Management Plan ( ) It is saved in PIP-II Docdb at http: //pip 2 -docdb. fnal. gov: 8080/cgibin/Retrieve. File? docid=163&filename=Risk%2 0 Management%20 Plan. pdf&version=1 • This is a live document. • A new version will be created as needed • 3 PIP-II Risk Management Every 6 months by the concurrence of the PIP-II Risk Management Board.

Define Roles and Responsibilities ( ) • The PIP-II Project Manager (PM) has the ultimate responsible for all aspects of the project risk management. – The PM has delegated this responsibility to Deputy Project Manager (DPM) who also reserves as Risk Manager and will chair the Risk Management Board (RMB). • The Risk Management Board (RMB). – The RMB membership will include PM, DPMs, L 2 Managers, Project engineers, the Accelerator and Technical Division representatives, Fermilab Project Office Representative and Federal Project Director. • The Level 3 Managers (L 3 M) are the Risk Owners for the PIP-II Project. – Responsible for developing the Risk Register, analyze the risk, develop and manage the risk mitigation plan. – The L 3 M will also report these risk and progress towards their mitigation plan to RMB. 4 PIP-II Risk Management

Define WBS breakdown and Risk Owners ( ) Working on two tier Risk Management. • Risk Responsibility (L 1/L 2) • Risk Owner (L 3/L 4) Next Iteration early July 2017 5 PIP-II Risk Management

Identify Risks Process ( ) • Risk Breakdown Structure – PIP-II is following Fermilab Risk Breakdown Structure https: //fermipoint. fnal. gov/collaboration/PMTools/Lists/RBS/Risk%20 Breakdown%20 Structure. aspx. – PIP-II Superconducting Linac is being built with significant international contribution. • Risk Owner have entered the Identified technical and schedule Risk from international collaborators in the Fermilab PIP-II Risk Registry. • Signing of the international agreement is not considered as the Project Risk. – PIP-II Risks has been categorized as • 121. 01 DOE and Fermilab • 121. 02 PIP-II Project Office • 121. 03 Superconducting Linac • 121. 04 Booster • 121. 05 Recycler/Main Injector • 121. 06 Conventional Facility 6 PIP-II Risk Management

Risk Ranking ( ) • PIP-II Project is using this matrix of risk probability vs impacts 7 PIP-II Risk Management

Risk Assessment ( ) • Risk Identification in the PIP-II Risk Registry – PIP-II Project has entered 140+ Risks in the Risk Registry • Assessment of Probabilities and Consequences • Assessment of Risk Trigger Metrics 8 PIP-II Risk Management

Risk Assessment …. • Risk Analysis – Risk Registry Review ( ) • PIP-II held a Risk Workshop on April 6 -7, 2017, with non PIP-II Project Subject Matter Experts https: //indico. fnal. gov/conference. Display. py? conf. Id=14141 – Risk Validation (In Progress, will be approved by May 5, 2017) • Comments from workshop – Qualitative Risk Analysis (Understanding the process) – Quantitative Risk Analysis (Awaiting RLS in P 6) 9 PIP-II Risk Management

Risk Workshop ( ) • Purpose of the PIP-II held a Risk Workshop ( ) – Bring together the projects’ leadership (Ln) as well as external experts to focus on risks. • 12 experts from LCLS-II, LHC Upgrade, LBNF/DUNE, Fermilab Project Management Office – Dialog and exchange ideas, not just present and review. • Discussed only a subset of Risks to really review the input – Do this in an open, transparent, and inclusive manner. • Considerable technical discussion – Ensure that all known risk threats and opportunities are appropriately characterized. – Classify threats in order to identify those that need to be actively managed in the near term. • Discussed by not classified • Need to work on this before CD-1 Director’s review 10 PIP-II Risk Management

PIP-II Risk Workshop • The Risk Owners Interactively worked in the Risk Registry – On average 15 mins per risk, maximum 1 hour on one risk. • Ensured that the summary captures the Risk. – If <Risk> occurs then <Impact> jeopardizes <Objective> • Discussed and had general agreement on – – – 11 Probability Technical Impact Cost Impact Schedule Impact Cause or Trigger Initial thoughts on Risk Mitigation Plan PIP-II Risk Management

Project Risk • Risk Owner: Steve Holmes (Paul and Shekhar) – Steve • Assumed R&D (pre-CD-3) funding profile not achieved • Inability to assign qualified individuals to key Project positions – Paul • Delay in Transition from R&D to Operations Funding • Improvements to Boo/RR/MI undertaken on operating funds – Shekhar • In-kind contributions do not meet codes and standards • Currency fluctuations – Any Risk to do with Scientific and Technical Resources, infrastructure etc. is Project Risk as many of them are common across WBS. • We will move them in Project Risk, but ask L 3 M to address them 12 PIP-II Risk Management

Cavity and Cryomodule Risk • Cavity and Cryomodule Risk Owner: Allan Rowe – HWR Cryomodule does not meet technical performance requirements – SSR 1 CM (1) Performance at PIP 2 IT does not meet technical requirements – LB 650/HB 650 CM Performance at CMTS does not meet technical requirements – Cryomodule design modifications identified late in design cycle – Cryomodule design commonalities implemented / Cryomodule design commonalities not implemented – Pulsed and CW cryomodule operating modes cause cryogenic or mechanical instabilities 13 PIP-II Risk Management

Risk Management: Next Step • We had expected that we will be successful in editing the Risk Registry and have a general agreement of the Risk Assessment. – We have significant comments • We would like to consolidate some of the Risks – International deliverables – Human Resources – ES&H • The PIP-II Project Management Team will go over the risk in next two weeks. – Approve – Disapprove – Suggest Modifications • We will communicate this to you ASAP. • On April 27 -28 we will meet for < 3 hours each to go over all the Risk in the Risk Registry. – Risk Registry should be ready for P 6 (Except Impacted Task ID) 14 PIP-II Risk Management

Next Steps: Risk Analysis • Risk Analysis (Every Quarter) – Qualitative Risk Analysis – Quantitative Risk Analysis • Qualitative Risk Analysis – Preparing an Excel Spreadsheet for this analysis • Quantitative Risk Analysis: – We will use the CF RLS and CF Risks to go through the whole process. • This will allow us to understand the Primavera Risk Analysis software and how it interacts with the Risk Register. – We have requested Mohammed Elrafih time starting the 1 st week of May 2017 to assist PIP-II Project. • Edit and approve the CF risk • Finalize the CF RLS for pre-CD 3 and Construction phases. 15 PIP-II Risk Management

Next Step: Risk Mitigation • Risk Mitigation is a continuous process. • The title of bi-weekly meeting has been changed to – SRF Linac R&D and Risk Mitigation • Risk Mitigation 1 – RT-121 -02 -01 -006 “In-kind contributions do not meet codes and standards” • Work on clearly documenting the Fermilab Acceptance Criteria – Communicated with Don, Allan and Jim • Risk Mitigation 2 – RT-121 -03 -002 “Cryogenic system specification changes” • This will happen if the Q of the cavity is lower and LFD not mitigated. – Solution is to add 5 k Liquid He plant to the current plant • Communicated this with Arkadiy 16 PIP-II Risk Management

Summary • PIP-II Project has developed a Risk Management Plan following the guidelines of the Fermilab Risk Management Procedure. • Identified the Risk Process and Risk Ranking • Risk Assessment for the Project – 140+ Risks identified (consolidation and addition in progress) • Held a Risk Workshop (April 6 -7, 2017) • Next Steps – Quarterly Risk Analysis after the Risk Register and its initial impact is approved – Focus: Risk Mitigation discussion by bi-weekly technical meetings • “R 1: R&D activities should be managed in a timely manner so that all critical risks are mitigated prior to the target date of CD-3. ” 17 PIP-II Risk Management