Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Research A WWRPTHOPEX and

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Research: A WWRP/THOPEX and WCRP Initiative Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair CAS MG meeting, 15 -17 November 2011 Madrid, Spain

Centres participating in the WMO Long Range Forecast Verification System http: //www. bom. gov. au/wmo/lrfvs/index. html • WMO Commission for Basic System prediction time range definitions – MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING: – EXTENDED-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING: • • – BEYOND 10 DAYS AND UP TO 30 DAYS DESCRIPTION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS, USUALLY AVERAGED AND EXPRESSED AS A DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATE VALUES FOR THAT PERIOD. LONG-RANGE FORECASTING: • – BEYOND 72 HOURS AND UP TO 240 HOURS DESCRIPTION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS FROM 30 DAYS UP TO TWO YEARS CLIMATE FORECASTING • : BEYOND TWO YEARS

MJO connection to Canadian surface air temperature: a significant impact Lagged winter SAT anomaly in Canada Significant warm anomaly in central and eastern Canada 1 -2 pentads after MJO phase 3

Predicting the Low Frequency Variability Medium-range forecasting the 500 h. Pa height with the ECMWF deterministic prediction system Extended-range forecasting of the NAO with the Canadian GEM Monthly ensemble prediction System

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the forecast skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Hai Lin and Gilbert Brunet (GRL, 2011)

World Meteorological Organization 2011 Congress World Meteorological Congress WWRP Polar Prediction project – “Congress acknowledged the success of the ten projects of the International Polar Year THORPEX cluster, and supported the CAS recommendation that, as a legacy of the IPY, a THORPEX Polar Research project be established to improve the understanding of the impact of high impact weather over Polar Regions. Congress also emphasized the need to have an adequate observational and telecommunication network for the Polar Regions in order to provide the relevant high impact weather services for the region. “ “Congress strongly urged all those concerned to ensure that such a Polar Prediction Research project is established in support of, inter alia, the Global Framework for Climate Services. Furthermore, the EC-PORS, at its Second Session in Hobart in October 2010, agreed to the concept of a major decadal initiative to develop a Polar Prediction System (Global Integrated Polar Prediction System - GIPPS). Congress recognized the importance of effective coordination between these various initiatives, and invited Members to contribute as appropriate. “ Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “Congress noted that the JSCs of the WWRP and the JSC for WCRP and WWRP/THORPEX ICSC set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out and international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. This initiative should be closely coordinated with the CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting and with the future developments of climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services. “ “Congress was pleased to note that the WWRP-THORPEX / WCRP workshop on “Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction” (Exeter, December 2010) had recommended the establishment of a Panel/Project for Sub-seasonal Prediction Research and Applications - Panel members being drawn from WWRPTHORPEX, WCRP, CBS, CCl, JCOMM, CHy, CAS and CAg. M and their relevant programme bodies. “

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction The Report from the Workshop on “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (Met Office, Exeter 1 to 3 December 2010) has been published to the web (http: //www. wmo. int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/recomme ndations_final. pdf; • The major Workshop recommendation was that a Project for sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction research should be established; • Planning Group should include representatives from WWRP-THORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl and their relevant programme bodies; • The first task for the Planning Group should be the preparation of an Implementation Plan , which is consistent with the contents of the Workshop Report and Recommendations. Ø 9

Sub-seasonal contd. The Implementation Plan should give high priority to: • Sponsorship of a few international research activities; • The establishment of collaboration and co-ordination between operational centres undertaking sub-seasonal prediction to: – ensure, where possible, consistency between operational approaches to enable the production of data bases of operational sub-seasonal predictions to support the application of standard verification procedures and a wide-ranging programme of research • Facilitating the wide-spread research use of the data collected for the CHFP - Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (and its associate projects), TIGGE and YOTC for research; • The establishment of a series of regular Workshops on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. Ø 10

Sub-seasonal contd. • the WWRP/SERA Working Group and the WCRP should outline plans for a number of regional projects; • Drs. Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) and Andrew Robertson (IRI) are the co-Chairs of the Planning Group and should be approved at this meeting; • WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP Sub-seasonal to seasonal implementation kick-off meeting. WMO headquarters, 2 -3 December 2011. Ø 11

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Initiative Planning Group • Planning Group Co-Chair 1 Frédéric Vitart ECMWF (WWRP) Co-Chair 2 Andrew Robertson IRI (WCRP) Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP Harry Hendon CAWCR CSIRO/Bo. M Yuhei Takaya JMA Hai Lin EC Alberto Arribas UKMO June-Yi Lee IPRC Duane Waliser NASA Hyun-Kyung Kim KMA Ben Kirtman IGES/COLA • Liaison Group Carolina Vera WCRP JSC Liaison Richard Graham UKMO CBS 12 Jean-Pierre Ceron Meteo-France CCL Barbara Brown SERA/Verification • Consultant David Anderson

• Thank you! • Merci!