SUBSEASONAL PREDICTION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA SUBSEASONAL
SUBSEASONAL PREDICTION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA SUBSEASONAL PREDICTION FOR COSTA RICA-COLOMBIA-EL SALVADOR INSTITUTO DE HIDROLOGIA, METEOROLOGIA Y ESTUDIOS AMBIENTALES – IDEAM - COLOMBIA OBSERVATORIO AMBIENTAL MARN – EL SALVADOR INSTITUTO METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL – COSTA RICA APRIL 19 2019 ANKARA, TURKEY
SUBSEASONAL PREDICTION
MJO ANALYSIS
MJO ANALYSIS
MJO ANALYSIS MJO VERIFICATION MJO FORECAST (no active)
WEEK 1 : WIND ANOMALIES IN DIFFERENT LEVELS Week 1. 200 h. Pa: Convergence in El Salvador and Divergence in Costa Rica and Colombia 700 h. Pa: NE Winds for El Salvador and divergence. For Costa Rica and Colombia NW and NW, W, SW for Colombia predominates here convergence. 850 h. Pa: Similar conditions
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS week 1 WEEK 1 ANOMALY WEEK 1 PROB. > 25 mm WEEK 1 PROB. > 50 mm
WEEK 2 : WIND ANOMALIES IN DIFFERENT LEVELS Week 2. 200 h. Pa: W winds in El Salvador; Convergence in El Salvador and Divergence in Costa Rica and north & south of Colombia 700 h. Pa: NE Winds for El Salvador and divergence. For Costa Rica NW winds and for Colombia NW, W and SW winds with predominance convergence in the west and center side of the country. 850 h. Pa: Similar conditions of 700 h. Pa.
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS week 2 WEEK 2 ANOMALY WEEK 2 PROB. > 25 mm WEEK 2 PROB. > 50 mm
ANOMALY OF TEMPERATURE week 1 and 2 Week 1. Forecast indicates normal anomalies for temperature in El Salvador and Costa Rica, below normal condition in west and south of Colombia; above normal in northe and northeast of Colombia. Week 2. Forecast indicates below anomalies for all the area of central america and Colombia.
CONCLUSIONS 1. The MJO will be inactive for the next two weeks. 2. For the first week the anomalies in 200 h. Pa combine with the divergence in most of the domain would enhance high probability of rainy conditions over 25 and 50 mm. 3. For the second week the anomalies in 200 h. Pa for the divergence presents a reduced area for the west and south of Colombia and northwest of Costa Rica; mean while in El Salvador persists rain below normal pattern.
TEAM Mery Esperanza Fernández Porras Meteorologa Sidia Sire Marinero Tobar Meteorologa – El Salvador Roberto Camilo Vindas Moran Meteorologo – Costa Rica 11 th International Training Workshop on Climate Second Symposium Ankara, Turkey
- Slides: 12