Subjective Wellbeing and the Intention to Emigrate A

Subjective Wellbeing and the Intention to Emigrate: A Cross-National Analysis of 157 countries, 2006 -2017 Karin A. C. Johnson, Tatiana Karabchuk, & Marina-Selini Katsaiti LCSR Workshop, April 9, 2019, Moscow

AGENDA • Background • Research questions • Theoretical framework • Data & Estimation strategies • Preliminary results

BACKGROUND • Debate: To what extent—if at all—whethere are motives to emigrate beyond economic ones (Neumeyer, 2005; Moore and Shellman, 2007; Sykes, 2013; Arar, 2016) • Well-established foundation: immigration on subjective wellbeing (SWB) (Docquier, Tansel, & Turati, 2017; Machnchin & Orazbayev, 2018) • More recent literature: e. g. , relationship of happiness—one attribute of SWB —and intentions to emigrate show U-shaped

RESEARCH QUESTIONS • How do individual- and country-level subjective wellbeing affect intentions to emigrate? • Specifically, how do broader national social political-economic conditions impact an individual’s SWB and desire to move abroad? Are there any moderating effects from HDI, GII, Gini coefficient and welfare system of the countries? Democracy indices? ? ? • If we talk moreу specifically on life satisfaction and well-being: are there any effects from the satisfaction with such public wealth as healthcare system, transportation and education system on the people’s wish to migrate?

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK • Aspirations and capabilities theory (Sen, 1999; Carling, 2002) • International migration eventuates when individuals can achieve their aspiration to move abroad when the ability to surmount structural constraints. • Strength: takes into account both micro and macro restraints and abilities. • Individual-level subjective wellbeing on intentions to migrate with the understanding that although people may have the desire to emigrate, structural conditions may facilitate or hinder their plans to move abroad.

Well-being and Migration studies Research on the relationship between well-being and migration has attempted to address the following questions: 1. 2. whether natives are happier than migrants (Bălţătescu, 2007; Bartram, 2011; Senik, 2014); 3. whether immigration affects the happiness of those left behind (Borraz, Pozo, & Rossi, 2010); 4. 5. whether different migrant groups within a country differ in happiness levels (Amit, 2010, 2012; Amit & Litwin, 2010); the relationship between internal migration and happiness (De Jong, Chamratrithirong, & Tran, 2002; Melzer, 2011); and the relationship between happiness and intentions to migrate abroad (Cai, Esipova, Oppenheimer, & Feng, 2014; Chindarkar, 2014; Lovo, 2014; Mara & Landesmann, 2013).

Life satisfaction and intentions to migrate negative relationship between life satisfaction and intentions to migrate is confirmed by numerous studies using data from the: 1. Latinobarometro (Chindarkar, 2014; Graham & Markowitz, 2011); 2. Gallup World Poll for 154 (Cai et al. , 2014) and for 25 European countries (Lovo, 2014); 3. Eurobarometer (Otrachshenko & Popova, 2014)

DATA • 2006 -2018 Gallup Poll • 157 countries • Mainly face to face interviews • Country size samples vary from 1000 to 3000 respondents per year • About 1. 5 million respondents/observations

Dependent Variables Intention to emigrate (ITE) • “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? ” (question WP 1325) • “Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months, or not? ” (question WP 10252) • In the next 12 months, are you likely or unlikely to move away from the city or area where you live? (WP 85)

Independent Variables At individual level: Step 1 • Subjective wellbeing (SWB) : Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from zero at the bottom to ten at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time, assuming that the higher the step the better you feel about your life, and the lower the step the worse you feel about it? Which step comes closest to the way you feel? (WP 16) • …. you will stand in the future, say about five years from now (WP 18) Step 2 • • • Law and order Index (safety and trust to police) Community basics index (satisfaction with public transportation, air, schools etc. . ) National Institution Index Economic conditions Index Satisfaction with standards of living Social life index

Law and Order Index • �In the city or area where you live, do you have confidence in the local police force? (WP 112) • �Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live? (WP 113) • �Within the last 12 months, have you had money or property stolen from you or another household member? (WP 117) • �Within the past 12 months, have you been assaulted or mugged? (WP 118)

Community Basics Index • • �In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the public transportation systems? (WP 91) �In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the roads and highways? (WP 92) �In your city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the quality of air? (WP 94) �In your city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the quality of water? (WP 95) �In your city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the availability of good affordable housing? (WP 98) �In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the educational system or the schools? (WP 93) �In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the availability of quality healthcare? (WP 97)

National Institution Index: • • �Do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about the military? (WP 137) �Do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about the judicial system and courts? (WP 138) �Do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about the national government? (WP 139) �Do you have confidence in each of the following, or not? How about the honesty of elections? (WP 144)

Satisfaction with standards of living • Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your standard of living, all the things you can buy and do? [WP 30] • Right now, do you feel your standard of living is getting better or getting worse? [WP 31]

Economic conditions and employment index • �Right now, do you think that economic conditions in this country, as a whole, are getting better or getting worse? ? (WP 148) • �How would you rate your economic conditions in this country today – as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? (M 30) • �Thinking about the job situation in the city or area where you live today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a job? (WP 89)

Social Life Index • �If you were in trouble, do you have relatives or friends you can count on to help you whenever you need them, or not? (WP 27) • �In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the opportunities to meet people and make friends? (WP 10248)

Independent Variables Country level (moderating effects): • Aggregated SWB • Gini coefficient, • Human Development Index (HDI) • Gender Inequality Index (GII) • World happiness ranking • Welfare system in the country

HYPOTHESES 1) Lower levels of individual SWB as well as low satisfaction with social spheres of life increase the ITE. 2) However, even when individual SWB is high, negative social context (“aggregated SWB, Gini index, HDI, GII and etc. ”) increases the likelihood to wish to emigrate as compared to counterparts who live in a country with better social environment.

Multilevel modelling • Individuals nested in the countries, nested in the years • Moderating effects of the macrolevel indicators reflecting countries’ level of social and economic development on subjective well-being and intention to migrate.

THANK YOU! KARIN JOHNSON: kjohn 033@ucr. edu TATIANA KARABCHUK: tkarabchuk@uaeu. ac. ae