Studying social policy in time Giuliano Bonoli Social
Studying social policy in time Giuliano Bonoli
Social policy in time § At the micro-level: longitudinal analysis § Social processes – Transitions between employment and non employment – Social exclusion § Event history analysis – Child birth – Disability recipiency § But at the macro-level? | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 2
Three time-related processes § Path dependency – Example: labour market policies § Sequencing – Example: pension reform § Relative timing – Example: Adaptation to new social risks | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 3
1. Path dependency § In the early days of a policy, the room for manoeuvre is relatively large. Early decisions are relatively unconstrained § Early decisions, however, put policies on course from which it is difficult to exit § Illustration through “Polya Urn” processes in mathematics § Illustration through the QWERTY keyboard layout in economic history | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 4
Why path dependency ? Increasing returns (P. Pierson) § Increasing returns : § Policy change requires collective action. § Institutional density or stickiness § Increasing returns in political authority § Complexity of politics and policies | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 5
Example: Labour market /industrial relations policy in Britain and in Germany in the 1980 s (Steward Wood) § PUZZLE: § UK: Liberalisation, deregulation § Germany: status quo prevails in spite of attempts by the Kohl government in the same direction § HYPOTHESES: § Employers preferences are different | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 6
Employer preferences in the UK and in Germany – shaped by EPL § UK § Germany § low employment protection § high employment protection allows employers to adjust generates a stable labour quickly to demand market which discourages free fluctuations, and keep short riding term profits high § provides incentives for Provides an incentive for workers to invest in their own workers to acquire skills transferable skills. § § § Collaboration with the unions Rigidities are detrimental to is important for providing profitability training | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 7
UK: The Thatcher governments reduced the power of the trade unions dramatically | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 8
Germany: failed attempts to undermine union power because of employers § attempt to restrict access to unemployment benefits for workers indirectly affected by a strike. § Attempt to undermine DGB monopoly in works councils | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 9
Conclusion: § Decisions taken decades earlier (interwar period for Germany) have shaped current employer preferences | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 10
2. Sequencing. Why do policy processes go through sequences? § Social learning (problem solving) § Strategic learning by political actors § Spill over effects (adjustment in the Netherlands). § Staged processes with extension of the range of available options | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 11
3. Relative timing of key developments § Key socio-economic developments are not synchronised across countries § Their relative timing may produce interactions that can affect the patterns of opportunity/constraints for policy change | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 12
Old welfare states and new social risks § Western welfare states were concieved and developed during the postwar years § Socio-economic changes have resulted in the emergence of new social risks § How are welfare states adapting to this? | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 13
… it depends § Nordic welfare states have been considerably more successful in adapting § Continental European welfare states are lagging behind § Timing of different developments explains divergence | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 14
Social change and new social risks § Deindustrialsiation and the tertiarisation of employment § Women’s entry into labour markets § Increased instability of family structures § Destandardisation of employment | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 15
Old and new social risk policies Old New - Pensions - Long term unempl. - Survivors ben. /ALMP - Short term unemployment - In work benefits ben. - Child care serv. - Sickness benefit - Family ben. - Invalidity ben. and serv. - Parental leave - Services for older people | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 16
It is justified to distinguish between two sorts of social policies, because: 1. They constitute responses to different social transformations, and have different objectives 2. The target groups of the two sets of policies are different 3. Why not? | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 17
Spending on old and new social risk polices as a % of GDP, averages 1997 -2001 Source: OECD SOCX 2004 | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 18
How do we explain divergence? § Politics § Institutional predisposition § The relative timing of postindustrialisation, ageing and welfare state maturation | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 19
The timing of key postindustrial developments in 18 OECD countries Source: Based on- NOM@idheap. unil. ch OECD Statistical compendium | ©IDHEAP | | 10/6/2020 | 20
Relationship between the average benchmark year and spending on new social risk polices, 1997 -2001 | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch Source: Based on OECD Statistical compendium | | 10/6/2020 | 21
Alternative explanations 1: the strength of the left - NOM@idheap. unil. ch Source: OECD SOCX| ©IDHEAP and Armingeon et al. CPDS | | 10/6/2020 | 22
Alternative explanation 2: the strength of the Christian democrats | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | Source: OECD SOCX and Armingeon et al. CPDS | 10/6/2020 | 23
Alternative explanation 3: Catholicism | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | Source: OECD SOCX and www. adherents. com | 10/6/2020 | 24
Competing explanations: correlation matrix Source: see previous slides | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 25
Alternative explanation 4: catching up Increase in spending on new social risk polices in the 1990 s and spending in 1987 -1991 | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 26
Conclusions § Timing matters, but together with politics § If timing matters, we should develop new techniques to introduce time base variables in policy making models § Not good news for those who are hit by NSR in Continental European countries | ©IDHEAP - NOM@idheap. unil. ch | | 10/6/2020 | 27
- Slides: 27