Study choices and job matching among graduates from
Study choices and job matching among graduates from two Eastern Cape universities Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017
Policy: National Development Plan: • Increase of gross enrolments from 950, 000 in 2010 to 1, 6 million in 2030, a 70% increase • University science and mathematics entrants to increase three-fold by 2030 • Increase graduation rates to 25% (of total enrolment) • Envisages an increase in higher education enrolments from 17. 9% in 2012 to 25% by 2030
Objectives: 1) Graduate unemployment: - Linked with study choices? - Or linked with ‘non-HE’ factors such as social networks, schooling disadvantages 3) Job matching: - Which graduates find the ‘right jobs’? - Are study choices associated with working in a ‘graduate job’?
The Eastern Cape Study: • Tracer study of the 2010 and 2011 cohorts from the University of Fort Hare (HDI)and Rhodes University (HAI) who graduated with a Bachelor’s degree • Stratified (by subjects and institution) probability sample of 1, 211 graduates representing the total population of 4, 927 graduates • Response rates of 39% and 47% per cent, respectively • Fieldwork = online survey and telephonic interviews
Graduate Unemployment
Figure 1: Broad unemployment rates (as of March 1 st), by field of study 24, 5 25, 0 22, 5 20, 4 18, 3 20, 0 % 15, 0 8, 8 9, 0 10, 0 6, 8 4, 6 4, 2 5, 0 0, 0 SET Business/ Commerce Education Rhodes University Notes: The data are weighted. University of Fort Hare Humanities Total
Figure 2: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (main effects)
Figure 3: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (interaction terms)
Table 1: Means of finding employment (among employees) Rhodes University Employment agency Relatives Linked to bursary Social media Personal contacts Newspaper Campus recruitment Employment agency Department of Labour Relatives Linked to bursary Social media Personal contacts Newspaper Campus recruitment SET Business/ Commerce Education Humanities Total 13. 16 (4. 06) 6. 04 (2. 66) 1. 55 (1. 54) 4. 96 (2. 46) 21. 02 (4. 56) 8. 76 (3. 91) 3. 77 (2. 17) 12. 73 (3. 58) 5. 15 (2. 12) 4. 43 (2. 27) 15. 08 (3. 97) 27. 07 (4. 56) 9. 78 (3. 44) 8. 69 (2. 90) 7. 25 (1. 87) 7. 75 (1. 92) 2. 10 (1. 04) 11. 82 (2. 32) 34. 12 (3. 41) 11. 08 (2. 24) 5. 23 (1. 61) 9. 84 (1. 61) 6. 59 (1. 27) 2. 63 (0. 89) 11. 56 (1. 74) 29. 56 (2. 38) 10. 86 (1. 71) 5. 95 (1. 24) 0. 00 (0. 00) 10. 03 (3. 18) 1. 21 (1. 20) 12. 11 (3. 44) 5. 84 (2. 54) 8. 39 (2. 86) 36. 62 (5. 04) 8. 82 4. 50 (1. 57) 6. 16 (1. 89) 3. 08 (1. 36) 4. 92 (1. 70) 7. 84 (2. 09) 13. 84 (2. 66) 40. 69 (3. 87) 4. 16 0. 00 (0. 00) 21. 05 (18. 05) 27. 63 (18. 35) 60. 53 (18. 99) 6. 58 (6. 66) University of Fort Hare 0. 00 (0. 00) 11. 90 (5. 62) 1. 82 (1. 81) 21. 56 (6. 59) 0. 00 (0. 00) 7. 84 (3. 82) 20. 55 (6. 08) 3. 30 1. 62 (0. 80) 8. 82 (1. 80) 3. 42 (1. 22) 15. 48 (2. 32) 4. 36 (1. 29) 11. 78 (2. 15) 37. 50 (3. 13) 4. 75 1. 92 (0. 56) 8. 68 (1. 28) 2. 79 (0. 73) 12. 91 (1. 52) 4. 99 (0. 91) 11. 32 (1. 37) 36. 23 (2. 10) 5. 08
Job Matching
Figure 4: Job matching status among employed graduates, by institution (%) 120 100 % 80 60 40 20 0 Rhodes Fort Hare Matched Note: The data are weighted . Real OQ Formal OQ Total Skills Underutilised
Table 2: The correlates of being overqualified (estimation by probit) Female Black Schooling Low quintile Higher grade math or science (1) 0. 0899 (0. 174) -0. 266 (0. 180) Rhodes (2) 0. 0408 (0. 182) -0. 317* (0. 190) (3) -0. 00104 (0. 189) -0. 260 (0. 192) 0. 359* (0. 208) -0. 195 (0. 178) 0. 335 (0. 216) -0. 207 (0. 188) 0. 321 (0. 217) -0. 227 (0. 197) -0. 167 (0. 232) -0. 167 (0. 230) -0. 120 (0. 293) -0. 242 (0. 246) -0. 160 (0. 230) -0. 303 (0. 312) -1. 133*** (0. 227) 368 -0. 256 (0. 266) -0. 0233 (0. 275) -0. 466** (0. 195) -0. 718*** (0. 260) 354 Higher education SET degree Commerce degree Distinction (4) -0. 0286 (0. 145) --- Fort Hare (5) 0. 0536 (0. 155) --- (6) 0. 0347 (0. 160) --- 0. 362** (0. 153) -0. 193 (0. 275) 0. 434*** (0. 160) -0. 226 (0. 296) 0. 425** (0. 170) -0. 125 (0. 314) 0. 0111 (0. 216) 0. 367** (0. 169) 0. 238 (0. 280) -0. 0831 (0. 228) 0. 231 (0. 181) 0. 0866 (0. 305) -1. 505*** (0. 187) 437 -0. 116 (0. 177) 0. 551* (0. 282) -0. 399** (0. 168) -1. 166*** (0. 250) 418 Employment characteristics Public sector Part-time Permanent _cons (unweighted) N -1. 239*** (0. 212) 376 Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. The data are weighted. Marginal effects reported. -1. 375*** (0. 152) 504
Conclusions: • Study choice has limited impact on employment or job matching • Disadvantages in schooling quality carrying over into the labour market (even for successful graduates) • Several possible points of efficiencies/blockages • Signalling vs. matching/social networking?
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