Structural and NonStructural Approaches to Water Supply The

Structural and Non-Structural Approaches to Water Supply The (other) Jordan River Basin David E. Rosenberg 1

Learning Objectives • List structural and non-structural options for households, cities, and nations • Outline an integrated approach to identify promising options • Compare effectiveness of potential options in Amman, Jordan • Recommend how to restore the Dead Sea • Propose institutional arrangements to initiate and implement measures 2

Integrated Management and Modeling for Amman, Jordan 3

Jordan Water Overview 100 mm/yr 0 500 900 50 100 km Irbid Tel Aviv Jerusalem Zarka Amman • 5+ mill. people Israel / Palestine • 1, 000 Mm 3/yr consumption Jordan • 850 Mm 3/yr supplies Ma’an IRAN PAL. Aqaba EGYPT SAUDI ARABIA Red Sea • Severe groundwater overdraft 4

Infrastructure • Galilee (500 MCM storage) • National water carrier (Israel, 300 -400 MCM) • King Abdullah Canal (Jordan, 100– 120 MCM) • Unity Dam (Jordan, 110/10 MCM capacity/use) • Zara-Ma’een (Jordan, 50 MCM) • Disi Conveyor (Jordan, <150 MCM) • Red Sea-Dead Sea Project (Jordan, Israel, Palestine, 850 MCM) 5 100 mm/yr 500 0 50 100 km 900 Amman Jordan Israel

National Water Budget Rate Structure and Water Use • 5 to 6 million people (2007) – Growing at 2 to 3% per year – 2. 2 mill. in Amman • Current Uses – 75%, 20%, and 5% split by Agric. , Munic. , and Indust. – Per capita municipal consumption of 100 l/pers/day Below: WAS model interface • Municipal water available for 12 to 60 hours/week 6

23 potential city-level actions

Activity #1. What structural and nonstructural actions should you consider for your semester project? • Break into project teams • Open the Google Sheet (https: //tinyurl. com/Group. Actions) • Make a copy of the Master sheet • Enter answers for your group 8

Integrated approach 1. Enumerate a wide range of actions 2. Characterize each potential action 3. Describe interdependencies 4. Identify events and probabilities that the system must adapt to deliver water, and Suggest cost-minimizing action mix 5. – Enhance supplies, manage demands – Long- and short-term – Financial and/or perceived cost – Effective water quantity added or conserved – Demand hardening – Supply enhancement – Mutual exclusivity – Probabilistic economic-engineering optimization 9

Activity #2. What long term actions should Amman, Jordan implement? • Interpret the optimal and near-optimal results on the next slide • Identify New Supply and Conservation actions the utility should: – Definitely implement – Implement at some level – Never implement 10

Supply-conservation configurations within 15% of least cost solution for 2020

Supply curve for increasing water availability 12

City-scale results • Modeling integrates multiple supply and conservation options with explicit uncertainties. • Conservation plays growing role over time. • Delayed need for mega-supply projects like pumping the Disi Aquifer. Red-Dead Canal not needed. 13

Integrated National and International Water Management Dead Sea (English) ( ים המלח Hebrew) 14 ( ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺖ Arabic)

Raise the Dead [Sea]? 1972 1989 2011 15

Potential National Actions • Supplies – – – Seawater desalination Wastewater reuse Source use Inter-district transfers Sector reallocations Infrastructure expansions Top: Alternatives to bananas? Middle: King Abdullah Canal • Conservation – – – Leak reduction Limit import of waterwasting appliances Targeted retrofits with water-efficient appliances Bottom: Zara-Ma’een pipes near the Dead Sea 16

Water Allocation System (WAS) Model • 45 districts • Conveyance capacity – Freshwater – Recycled water • Integrated Hydro. Economic Modelling • Maximize water value not quantity 17

Where to desalinate on the Israeli coast? 18

Where to desalinate on Israeli coast with 30% supply drop (e. g. drought)? 19

Red Sea-Dead Sea Project Proposal • Jordan, Israel, & Palestinian proposal • 180 km long • Facilities – – Intake at Aqaba/Eilat Hydropower generation Desalination Pump to Amman • Costs (2012) – $US 5 billion capital – $US 1. 2/m 3 operational 20

Change in system-wide expected costs when more water goes to Dead Sea 21

Choose a country. What alternative will your country prefer? Why? 22

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Identify Action Linkages 24

Lessons for Colorado River Managers? 1. 2. 3. 25

Conclusions 1. Planning often requires a mix of structural and non-structural approaches – New supply and conservation – Short- and long-term 2. Consider local, utility, and regional scales 3. Pay attention to who initiates and who implements 4. Modeling can help identify the action mix (portfolio) 26

References Rosenberg, D. E. (2009). "Integrated Water Resources Management and Modeling at Multiple Spatial Scales in Jordan. " Water Policy. 11(5), 615 -628. doi: 10. 2166/wp. 2009. 064. http: //www. iwaponline. com/wp/01105/wp 011050615. htm. Rosenberg, D. E. , and Lund, J. R. (2009). "Modeling integrated water utility decisions with recourse and uncertainties. “Water Resources Management, 23(1), 85 -115 http: //www. springerlink. com/content/k 7 h 71596 u 3065104/ . 27

References (cont. ) Fisher et al. (2002). Water Resources Research 38(11), 1243, doi: 10. 1029/2001. Fisher et al. (2005). “Liquid Assets…” (Resources for the Future, Washington, D. C. ). Rosenberg et al. (2008) Water Resources Research 44, W 11402, doi: 10. 1029/2007 WR 006519. Rosenberg (2011). "Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance. " Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1243 -1255, doi: 10. 5194/hess-151243 -2011. 28