Strategy Effectiveness Measures Conceptual Model Results Chain Examples

Strategy Effectiveness Measures Conceptual Model & Results Chain Examples

Results Chains - Basics The Basic Components of a Results Chain:

Results Chains - Basics What is a Results Chain? • Is a diagram of a series of “if…then” statements (“causal”) • Defines how we think a project strategy or activity is going to contribute to reducing a threat and conserving a target • Focuses on the achievement of results – not the execution of activities • Is composed of assumptions that can be tested

Results Chains - Basics Conceptual Model vs. Results Chain • Conceptual Model (i. e. , Situation Analysis) – Show the situation today – Identify strategies • Results Chains: – Shows the desired future condition – Start with selected strategies show desired results

Condor Bioreserve Conceptual Model Who are the key stakeholders with vested interest in the project, what factors are driving critical threats, and what opportunities exist?

Condor Bioreserve What factors in our situation analysis warrant action?

Condor Bioreserve Results Chain

Lake Alexander – Fire Threat Situation Analysis

Lake Alexander – Fire Threat Results Chain

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat Objective: To reduce by 75% the consumption of fuel wood collected from biologically sensitive forests in the project area in 10 years

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • Resources spent on Alternative Energy Strategy – FY 2001 $50, 000 – FY 2002 $150, 000 – FY 2003 $350, 000 Total $550, 000 NW Yunnan, China

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • Record of activities completed (e. g. , proposals written, grants received, # presentations made, number of household surveys completed). Training on Fireplace, Biogas, and Greenhouse Use in Village

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat Alternative energy installations completed (as of June 2003) • • • 1, 491 Household Scale Biogas Units 20 Biogas-Greenhouse Units 97 Improved Fireplace/Cookstoves 129 Solar Water Heating Units 9 Energy demonstration project at schools

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • Threat abatement measured by measuring changes in volume of wood consumed in a sample of households • Also, household surveys to collect details on # people, fuel wood uses

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • Changes in forest cover calculated from changes in satellite-derived forest-cover maps

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat • Changes in forest cover recorded from permanent photopoints along ridge top trails

NW Yunnan, China – Fuel wood threat

Watch this & remaining slides in Slide Show mode Mesoamerican Reef Fisheries Conceptual Model

Mesoamerican Reef Fisheries Results Chain Objective FSM 3: FSM 2: 2012 there 30% of isall the at 80 least fishermen one concession in the types relevant priority to. MAR Goal: By 2018, all. By more validated than 25% and of ecologically coral functional habitat SPAG in the will sites are Objective FSM 6: By 2018, at least % ofreef the fishermen ingiven 8 sites MAR Intermediate Objective FSM 1: By 2011, at least 4 sustainable fisheries practices are Outcome Results FSM 5: By 2017, arepractices collaborating actively in law fishermen are awarethe in of Honduras andsites capable using of fishermen using sustainable the sustainable fishing to have practices exclusive identified fishing maintain effectively conserved. * conditions necessary to preserve the species (composition, Program priority comply with all fishing regulations (no-take zones, Results identified that could be applied in and around priority sites. enforcement activities in/ofareas 6 sexes) priority sites. rights in FSM 1. toseasons, some species in the priority sites. abundance, proportion documented during validation. closed gear. Indicators: (1) Abundance of herbivore species; (2) Abundance of surgeon Indicator FSM 1 -I 1: ##of sustainable fisheries products identified around FSM 5 -I 1: of law enforcement activities (patrolling, reports of Indicator FSM 3 -I 1: # FSM 2 -I 1: of % concession of fishermen agreement aware of drafts sustainable prepared fishing and approved Indicators: fish and parrot (1) fish # of species that aggregate in specific periods; (2) #practices; ofactions Indicator FSM 6 -I 1: # of infractions; & FSM 6 -I 2: # of law enforcement priority siteswhere for which there is demand infractions) participation of fishermen isin documented by FSM 2 -l 2: government % of priority and the sites fishermen of trained priority sites sustainable fishing practices individuals of each species during thethe peak of the aggregation period; (warnings, fines, confiscation, jail) * Working definition of effective conservation exists with multiple components

Kimbe Bay Managing Conservation Projects Results Chain with Strategy, Objectives, Indicators Outcome Results Intermediate FY 12, 250, 000 live coral cover of. Maritime reefunder systems increased toorover 50% Objective: By FY 17, FY 12, FY 09, FY 10, 4 Section design active and 38 spawning ha of legally ofthe LLMA's aggregation secure a. Zones functionally-connected effective sites billclosed ismanagement expanded withto in Results establish network restricted Kimbe Bay ofmarine fishing LMMAs practices protected and MPAs areas in Kimbe Bay covering 250, 000 ha. Indicator: % cover live coral Indicator: ha Area # Billofwith passed/failed SPAGs (ha) acceptable designated closed Mgmt to as fishing LMMA Effectiveness Scores

Goal: By 2015, Objective: By After 2012, have 2012, there atofall least 37 are 5. 0 fish no Council groundfish more stocks staff in approves the per 10 have Ecoregion incidences hour theafrom knowledge are average perfished year and party of at the 2010, end the council 2009, the has council setthan Total Allowable "good" Catch DAP (TAC) plan. capacity fishermen levels boat CPUE consistent to violating implement measurements. the an a. TAC pilot ecolocially Limits. test ofscientifically DAPs. sustainable harvest. Criteria limits for include: each stock 1. with Comprehensiveness; that are within 2. Minimal credible Proccessor "sustainable" Quota; 3. Adaptive Management Trust; 4. Gear Switching Provisions limits. Indicator: Assessment of Capacity of Council Indicator: # of Fish CPUE Incidences Levels Stocks forofat Groundfish TAC Sustainable Violations Limit Intermediate Outcome Results Indicator: Results Quality # of Stocks of DAP with. Plan Credible Approved Catch(specific Limits criteria established)

Fire Learning Network – Central Oregon Objective: Goal: 20 -30% # 75% By ofof 2020 NEPA acres Reduction Frequent the treated approved percent in. Fire acres increases forests of projects ofrestoration severe on by increases public fire 30% and/or projects are by by unnatural 2015 in a appealed Condition thirdmortality by reduced Class 2020. due. I. toto 25%. insects and disease by 2030 Intermediate Outcome Results Indicator: #%of. Departure appeals/# NEPA acres treated approved from of projects NRV projects Results Indicator: # acres of severe fire and/or unnatural mortality

Mackinaw River Initial Conceptual Model with Outreach Strategy

Mackinaw River – paired watershed study Intermediate Results No detectable improvement in water quality or conservation targets in treated watershed as compared to the control. Outcome Results demonstrate increased use of Best Management Practices in the treated watershed as compared to the control

Mackinaw River Revised Conceptual Model with new Tile. Drainage Abatement Strategy