Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural

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Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural SSA: Targeting the Poor Doug Merrey

Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural SSA: Targeting the Poor Doug Merrey FANRPAN Regional Dialogue 2 September 2008, Lilongwe, Malawi

Outline Ø Overview (adapted from Jerry Nelson, IFPRI) ü Climate change and variability—impacts on

Outline Ø Overview (adapted from Jerry Nelson, IFPRI) ü Climate change and variability—impacts on the poor ü Adaptation strategies ü Project goals Ø Outcome of Kickoff Workshop Ø Roles of FANRPAN and ASARECA Ø Conclusions

Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & Variability Ø Rich countries emit majority of

Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change & Variability Ø Rich countries emit majority of GHGs Ø Poor countries are more vulnerable ü Geography (hotter, less rain, more variation) ü Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resources ü Limited infrastructure and low-input agriculture ü Low income, poverty and malnutrition ü Inadequate complementary services, like health and education ü Weak institutions ü Thus, lower adaptive capacity (less resilience) Ø Location matters! Page 3

Much Adaptation Policy is Extension of Good Development Policy q Promote growth and diversification

Much Adaptation Policy is Extension of Good Development Policy q Promote growth and diversification q Invest in research and development, education and health q Improve international trade system q Enhance resilience to disasters and improving disaster management q Promote risk-sharing, including social safety nets, weather insurance Page 4

Types of Adaptation q Autonomous or spontaneous adaptations v Response to observed/anticipated climate change

Types of Adaptation q Autonomous or spontaneous adaptations v Response to observed/anticipated climate change without intervention by a public agency v Initiatives by private actors rather than governments, triggered by market or welfare changes induced by actual or anticipated climate change q Policy-driven or planned adaptation v Proactive response v Result of deliberate policy decision on the part of public agencies Page 5

Adaptation Responses and Issues Type of response Autonomous Policy-driven Short run • Crop choice,

Adaptation Responses and Issues Type of response Autonomous Policy-driven Short run • Crop choice, crop area, planting dates • Risk-pooling insurance • Improved forecasting • Policy reform • Technology dissemination Long run • Private investment (on-farm irrigation) • Private crop research • Relocation • Public investment (water storage, roads, info infrastructure) • Public crop research Issues • Adaptive capacity of poor • Social safety nets • Uncertain returns to investment • Targeting Page 6

Effective Adaptation Policy Strategies q Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target

Effective Adaptation Policy Strategies q Must go beyond good development policy to explicitly target the impacts of climate change, particularly on the poor q Requires spatially targeted adaptation q Market signals Ø essential factor in determining the responses to a changing environment Ø but involves potentially expensive time lags and overlooks equity q Climate change adaptation must therefore be proactive, not merely reactive Page 7

Why does location matter?

Why does location matter?

Where do the global climate models agree (yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red) Low emissions scenario

Where do the global climate models agree (yellow/green) and disagree (blue/red) Low emissions scenario High agreement southern & eastern Africa

Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 (mm/month) June, high emissions scenario Black – no

Change in Precipitation 2000 - 2050 (mm/month) June, high emissions scenario Black – no change Yellow – decrease in mean Blue/green – increase in mean A lot of yellow! Decreasing mean rainfall

Project Goals Ø Assess where should adaptation policies/programs be targeted Ø Identify what kinds

Project Goals Ø Assess where should adaptation policies/programs be targeted Ø Identify what kinds of adaptations might be cost-effective and pro-poor Ø Propose methods and tools for policymakers to evaluate options Page 11

Planned Project Products Ø Global change scenarios ü Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic

Planned Project Products Ø Global change scenarios ü Changes in climate, land use, socio-economic factors, and alternative policies Ø Typology of production systems ü Integrates biophysical and socio-economic factors Ø Household-level impact and response matrix Ø Micro-level adaptation case studies Ø Policy decision framework tools Page 12

FANRPAN Hosted Kick-off Workshop 23 -25 June 2008 Outcomes Ø Identified large number of

FANRPAN Hosted Kick-off Workshop 23 -25 June 2008 Outcomes Ø Identified large number of related projects— agreed to cooperate and build synergies Ø Data base of projects, institutions, individuals working on adaptation to climate change Ø Commitment of partners present to collaborate ü IFPRI, FANRPAN, ASARECA, two German partners (PIK, ZALF), represented governments, African research institutions Ø Work plan agreed Ø Ideas contributing to project implementation

Indicative List of Suggestions q Agriculture in a wider socio-economic context ü Economic diversification

Indicative List of Suggestions q Agriculture in a wider socio-economic context ü Economic diversification = adaptation strategy q Target and sensitize wide spectrum of stakeholders & decision makers q Participatory pro-active approach with policy makers q Regional focus (SADC, COMESA) makes more sense than purely national approach q Capacity building and practical adaptive strategies will be more valuable than academic publications

Roles—FANRPAN & ASARECA Ø Facilitate access to data, linkages of international with regional scientists

Roles—FANRPAN & ASARECA Ø Facilitate access to data, linkages of international with regional scientists ü Networking function critical given growing number of projects and activities Ø Assist in design of socio-economic scenarios Ø Organize workshops and consultations with key decision makers ü Policy dialogues as results emerge Ø Facilitate linking regional students with capacity building opportunities ü See Ph. D opportunity at www. fanrpan. org

Conclusion o Project provides opportunity to build regional linkages and capacity Ø Our strength

Conclusion o Project provides opportunity to build regional linkages and capacity Ø Our strength is capacity to bring researchers together with regional stakeholders, decision makers Ø Partnership with ASARECA a valuable opportunity with future potential benefits for region o Measures to strengthening capacity for adaptation to climate variability and change is usually good developmental policy Ø But as a recent Norwegian review of its Malawi projects show, there are implications: need to diversify – diversify

From David Grey Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982 Mozambique

From David Grey Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982 Mozambique flood Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Thank you! Credit: Gilberto Ricardo Cattle drinking water in the Shinguedzi River, competition for

Thank you! Credit: Gilberto Ricardo Cattle drinking water in the Shinguedzi River, competition for water resources with wildlife in the Limpopo National Park (Mozamique)