Strategic Forecasting Inc Who we are Independent global

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

Who we are � Independent, global team of intelligence professionals provides an audience of decisionmakers and sophisticated news consumers in the U. S. and around the world with unique insights into political, economic, and military developments. The company uses human intelligence and other sources combined with powerful analysis based on geopolitics to produce penetrating explanations of world events. This independent, non-ideological content enables users not only to better understand international events, but also to reduce risks and identify opportunities in every region of the globe.

Independence � We have a viable business model – not beholden to corporate conglomerate or other interests ◦ No ad space / not beholden to advertisers � We provide and insightful analysis on the ongoing events, and forecast what is to come

History � Founded in 1996 by Dr. George Friedman � Borne of the internet as the resources of a government were no longer necessary to collect, analyze and share intelligence in a timely fashion (internet puts OSINT at your fingertips) – the privatization of intelligence � Company shifted over time from providing corporate services to providing continual intelligence products to individual customers

Our Content – Geopolitical Analysis � Situation � Analysis � Quarterly Reports & Annual Forecasts � Multimedia � Intelligence Guidance

Situation Reports: Snapshots of global breaking news Situation Reports Kazakhstan: President Had Prostate Surgery - German Newspaper July 20, 2011 0703 GMT Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev underwent prostate surgery, performed by a Dutch specialist. . . [more] Kazakhstan: President Took Preventative Medical Exam July 20, 2011 0626 GMT Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev took a scheduled preventative medical exam in a hospital. . . [more] Afghanistan: Taliban Denies Leader's Death July 20, 2011 0537 GMT Messages sent from the telephone numbers of two Taliban spokesmen, Qari Yousef Ahmadi and. . . [more]

Analysis: Daily reports that assess key world events and their significance � Analysis � In-depth pieces produced daily and in special packages that cover key geopolitical or security issues. Analysis articles address breaking events, concepts or trends. ◦ ◦ All Analysis Special Reports Geopolitical Diary Forecasts

Quarterly & Annual Forecasts: Rigorous predictions of what will happen next � Quarterly Forecasts forecast the next quarter � Annual Forecasts forecast the next year � Decade Forecast 2005 -2015 (unfolding)

Multimedia: Engaging videos and information-rich interactive maps � Above the Tearline ◦ Weekly security analysis video by STRATFOR Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton � Agenda ◦ Interviews by STRATFOR Vice President of Asia Pacific & International Development of STRATFOR Analysts and Executives on key issues � Dispatch ◦ Video updates by STRATFOR Analysts on key issues

Intelligence Guidance: Weekly internal memos that guide STRATFOR staff in their intelligence-gathering operations in the immediate days ahead � � � Example: 1. Iran: Iran reported that it has moved additional troops to its border with Iraq, ostensibly for training exercises. This movement is consistent with seasonal surges of activity by and against Kurdish militants, but the timing and the attention around the deployment are potentially noteworthy. Shortly after Iran’s report of additional troop movements, Kurdish reports suggested an Iranian attack across the border into Kurdish areas of Iraq. Further reports claimed that Turkish elements were involved with the Iranian forces. Are these reports accurate? Are these events just the typical seasonal clashes in the area, or is there more to the Iranian move? Are Turkish forces cooperating with Iran with regards to Kurdish elements? What impact does this development have on U. S. preparations for an Iraqi withdrawal? 2. Yemen: There are reports of local tribes in the south turning against al Qaeda and those allied with it. How accurate are these reports? Are they limited to a specific tribe or is this a broader phenomenon? What are the implications for the Yemeni-based branch of al Qaeda? How does this realignment play into the ongoing political crisis in Sanaa, if at all? We also need to continue monitoring the status of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his sons as well as the role that Saudi Arabia is playing. Read more: Intelligence Guidance: Week of July 17, 2011 | STRATFOR

Geopolitics � Study or application of the influence of political and economic geography on the politics, foreign policy national power, etc. of a state � Combination of both political and geographic factors defining a country or region � National policy based on interrelation of geography and politics � ** We provide geopolitical intelligence analysis

Geopolitical Intelligence Analysis � Strategic analysis ◦ Examining, analyzing and forecasting economic, political and military relationships at the national and international level � Tactical analysis ◦ Examining, analyzing and forecasting the on-theground nitty gritty, e. g. troop deployments, NATO Sortie locations in Libya, insurgent groups and methods, future group trends etc. � Fusion – Annual and Decade Forecasts

How We Process Information � Medium-sized company � Multiple employees globally ◦ Employees on various continents ◦ Wide networks of personal and professional contacts ◦ Time sensitive intelligence analysis impossible without eyes and ears on-the-ground – we have that ◦ Disseminating between what is good and bad intelligence (OSINT, HUMINT) � Small Analytic entity allows for us to share, collaborate STRATFOR is always looking, and writing about what is ahead

Why Croatia, RACVIAC and the Wider Neighborhood? � STRATFOR is always looking at what areas matter tomorrow ◦ Stomping ground of history and empires ◦ Croatia in NATO / on the verge of EU membership – Croatia key to the region’s stability ◦ Southeastern Europe is still a key area of narcotics, human and drug trafficking – the Balkan Route and transnational crime ◦ Future energy routes ◦ Unresolved political questions in Bosnia Herzegovina and Kosovo ◦ Historical relationships and European power political and economic interests in the region � Turkey � Russia � EU � NATO