Steve Pierce President The Oregon Chapter of the

Steve Pierce President The Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)

Oregon AMS Mission Statement “The purpose of this society shall be to advance professional ideals in the science of meteorology and to promote the development, exchange and application of meteorological knowledge. ”

Current 2012/13 Oregon AMS Executive Council President – Steve Pierce Vice President – Bobby Corser Secretary – Brian Mac. Millan Treasurer & Web Master – John Rinier Councilors – Mark Nelsen, Tyree Wilde & Crystal Stout

Oregon AMS Updates Oregon AMS yearly membership dues are only $10 per year! The Oregon AMS is now the single largest AMS chapter in the country with 180 members. We host 8 monthly meetings per year along with the annual “Winter Weather Forecast Conference” now in it’s 21 st year. We also host a great season ending summer picnic. We are on Twitter @Oregon. AMS and we are also on Facebook at: facebook. com/oregonams. Our web site is easily found on any search engine. Just type “Oregon AMS!” Are you an AMS member?

Oregon AMS Updates ** Upcoming Meetings ** Tuesday, March 19 th 7: 30 pm “Hurricanes, weather patterns and climate change — why a few degrees matter” with Richard Anthes, former President of the American Meteorological Society (2007). Location: Portland State University. Co-sponsored by the Columbia / Willamette Sigma Xi chapter. April – *Tentative* Hydrology & Flood Forecasting Reliability w/ Les Miller (Army Corps) and Andy Bryant (National Weather Service). Time, Date and Location = TBD

A Quick Winter Weather Update

A Quick Winter Weather Update BORING WEATHER = NO SNOW!

AIR FORCE WEATHER Lt Col Matt Doggett Commander, 123 Weather Flight Oregon Air National Guard

Who Are We Three Weather Units. Three distinct missions � Aviation � � 142 FW ○ 123 FS � OSW (Weather) � Special Ops � 123 STS ○ SOWT � Army � 123 WF

How We Are Organized

Air Force Weather History � The Early Years � 1804. Military responsibility � 1819. Medical Corps � 1870. Signal Corps � 1890. Weather Bureau � 1937. Birthday!

The Early Years � Earliest known records

1804. Enter the military

1819 -1870. The Medical Corps Dr Joseph Lovell

1870 -1890. The Signal Corps An U. S. Army Signal Corps soldier at Pikes Peak weather station, transmits latest weather data by heliograph (circa 1880 s)

1890 -1917. The US Weather Bureau U. S. Army Signal Corps and Weather Bureau Station on Pikes Peak, altitude 14, 147 feet (circa 1890 s) (U. S. Army Signal Corps)

Birth of a Weather Service

Weather War Stories � � � � � Birth of the Jet Stream. First Tornado Forecast Small Forecast. Big Impact. Winds of Change Know the enemy, know Isn’t that Special? yourself; your victory will A Quick Rescue never be endangered. Beyond the Battlefield Know the ground, know The Final Frontier the weather; your victory Some Gave All will then be total. - Sun Tzu, The Art of War, c. 400 -320 b. c.

Birth of the Jet Stream. Carl-Gustav Rossby

First Tornado Forecast Aircraft damage from first Tornado at Tinker AFB, 20 Mar 1948 Capt Miller and Maj Fawbush

Small Forecast. Big Impact.

Winds of Change Within hours of the attacks, AFCCC produced special reports on winds for all three runways at Reagan National

Winds of Change AFWA i. GRADS replaced the need for manned rawinsonde operations with a Field Artillery unit in a combat zone.

Isn’t that Special SOWT operator transmitting an observation from a remote location high in the mountains of Afghanistan.

A Quick Rescue

Beyond the Battlefield � Hurricanes, Volcanoes, and Floods! Oh my! � Haiti � Deepwater Horizon. � Pakistan flooding.

The Final Frontier � Rocket Launches � Shuttle support � Solar

Some Gave All Capt Nathan J Nylander 27 Apr 2011

Why Not Just Use the NWS?

NWS Ft Drum Forecast When will the snow start? When will it end? How much? Will my aircraft be able to fly? When will aviation be grounded? Will tracked vehicles be affected? Will satellites or communications be hindered?

US Air Force CWT Ft Drum Forecast

AIR FORCE WEATHER

Training and Ops SMSgt Chris Payne • • Weather Forecasting School Weather Readiness Training Course Training at Home Station Operations

Unclassified/FOUO Upon completion of Basic Training or transfer from sister service (US Army, US Navy, US Coast Guard or US Marines) Weather Forecasting School, Keesler AFB – 30 weeks Training includes basic, intermediate, and advanced meteorology, meteorological reports and computer operations. Other topics include: satellite meteorology, weather chart analysis, weather radar, weather products, tropical meteorology, synoptic level analytical meteorology, weather prognosis techniques, and severe weather forecasting.

Wx School Course Outline • Element 1 Block 1 -Meteorology (Basic, Intermediate, and Advanced). Block 2 -Satellite (Interpretation) Block 3 -Encoding/Upper Air Charts Block 4 -Macroscale Analysis Techniques (A Study of the long wave pattern to include physics and dynamics, an introduction to models, and they also have to successfully analyze a hemispheric chart, and satellite)

Wx School Course Outline • Element 2 Block 5 -Synoptic scale analysis techniques (Including: Physics, Dynamics, a more in-depth look at satellite interpretation, and model initialization/verification) Block 6 -Synoptic Lab (Chart analysis of both the long wave pattern, synoptic pattern, satellite) Block 7 -Mescoscale Analysis Techniques (A study of convective/nonconvective severe weather, to include radar basics) Block 8 -Mesoscale Analysis Lab (Analysis of Synoptic and Mesoscale features; students are actually put on an OPUP with a saved scenario (many scenarios) for them to practice, and special observations). Block 9 -Macro/Synoptic Scale Forecast Techniques (Study of basic Macro/Synoptic scale rules/dynamics) Block 10 -Macro/Synoptic Scale Forecast Lab

Wx School Course Outline • Element 3 Block 11 -Meso/Microscale Forecast Techniques Block 12 - Meso/Microscale Forecast Lab (The students are given an indepth look at models, further interpretation of the models, and how to apply them in the real world. Block 13 -Forecast Lab (The students are given a base to forecast for, and issue WWA's, write TAFS, do manual observations, analyze charts/satellite Block 14 -Air Force Weather Career Field (Basic 5 and 7 skill level progression, the FMQ-19, deployable equipment, some basic Army support terminology)

Active Duty Weather Troops – Assigned to one of eight (8) major Air Force Weather "Hubs" (which are major regional weather forecasting stations) • Barksdale AFB, LA • Shaw AFB, SC • Davis-Monthan AFB, AZ • Scott AFB, IL • Sembach AB, Germany • Yakota AB, Japan • Hickam AFB, HI • Elmendorff AFB, AK. – Undergo intensive on-the-job training for a period of 15 to 24 months.

ANG Weather Operations Course (Camp Blanding, FL) • 17 Week Course (Starts every 4 weeks) – Observing, Met Applications, Army Unique Weather Support, Air Field Unique Weather Support

Battlefield Airmen Weather Support Locations 116 WF 123 WF 202 WF 208 WF 126 WF 107 WF 203 WF 146 WF 207 WF 113 WF 164 WF 200 WF 127 WF 105 WF 125 WF 156 WF 154 WF 210 WF 195 WF 181 WF 199 WF 159 WF 209 WF Special Operations Weather Teams supporting Special Operations Forces Battlefield Weather Flights supporting Conventional ARNG Forces

Army Weather Support • Wx Warnings & Advisories • Weather Briefings • Extended Planning Weather Forecasts • Climatology • River Level Forecasts • Weather Thresholds to weapons systems

• Specific Mission and Army Customer – 41 st IBCT (Clackamas, OR) – 116 th CAV (Boise, ID) – State Joint Operations Center (Salem, OR)

Questions?

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SOWT History - WWII Yugoslavia _ OSS recruited weathermen to parachute into German occupied Yugoslavia to radio out weather reports _ Supported bombing missions against targets in the Balkans to support supply missions to Marshall Tito’s partisans _ These men received their jump training at a British jump school in Palestine Normandy / Holland _ Weathermen attached to the 101 st ABN and 82 nd ABN _ Parachuted into Europe in order to provide weather data China-India-Burma Theater _ OSS weathermen parachuted into Burma to train Burmese fighters _ Trained to take & send out weather reports Pacific Theater _ JC-40 Group weathermen worked behind Japanese lines in the Philippines to support air strikes & naval bombardments in preparation for Mac. Arthur’s campaign _ By October of 1944 they operated 39 weather reporting stations

SOWT History – Grimes Years Birth of Modern SOWT _ In 1963 Captain Keith Grimes formed Detachment 75 of the 2 nd Weather Group at Hurlburt Field to support Air Force Air Commandos _ ‘Jungle Jim’, elements provided weather support to special forces involved in unconventional warfare throughout Vietnam and surrounding countries _ 1965 deployed with 7 th SFG during the Dominican Republic crisis Laos _ 1965 to 1973 Grimes and his weatherman established a weather network in Laos _ They trained Laotians & Air America members how to record & transmit weather data _ At its height 10 Air America and 18 Laotian sites were producing & transmitting 4500 observations a month Cambodia _ 1974 Lt. Col Grimes as commander, established weather

SOWT Training Pipeline Special Operations Weather Selection Course, Lackland, AFB - 2 weeks Special Operations Weather Initial Skills Course, Keesler AFB – 29 weeks Training includes basic, intermediate, and advanced meteorology, meteorological reports and computer operations. Other topics include: satellite meteorology, weather chart analysis, weather radar, weather products, tropical meteorology, synoptic level analytical meteorology, weather prognosis techniques, and severe weather forecasting. U. S. Army Airborne School, Fort Benning - 3 weeks U. S. Air Force Basic Survival School, Fairchild AFB, - 2 ½ weeks U. S. Air Force Water Survival Training, Fairchild AFB – 2 days U. S. Air Force Underwater Egress Training, Fairchild AFB - 2 days Special Operations Weather Apprentice Course, Pope AFB – 13 weeks Special Tactics Operational Readiness Training , Hurlburt Field - 12 -months Produces mission-ready operators for the Air Force and U. S. Special Operations Command

Additional SOWT Training - Static Line Jumpmaster - Military Free Fall Parachutist - MFF Jumpmaster - Military Scout Swimmer - Military Scuba Qualification - Avalanche Analysis and Forecasting (LVL 2) - Riverine Analysis and Forecasting Course -Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operator Certification

SOWT Core Competencies - Environmental Collection Terrain Analysis Riverine Assessments Avalanche Hazard Assessments Small Unmanned Aircraft System (SUAS) WX Sensor Emplacement - Austere Airfield Weather Operations Surface/Upper Air Observations - Limited Data Forecasting/ Nowcasting/ Mission Execution Forecasting - Chemical Downwind Message

SOWT Way Ahead National Meteorological Service Assessments Assess a nation's meteorological infrastructure strictly based on the nation's capability to provide operationally and tactically relevant and accurate weather information in support of SOF missions and mission profiles to include FID, COIN, and other SOF-enabled operations. Establishing SOF and Indigenous Weather Networks Organize, train, equip, advise, and assist SOF and indigenous forces to build meteorological capacity/infrastructure in order to provide a more adequate weather data coverage Weather Site Surveys Conduct weather site surveys of existing airfield services, of airfields without services, and of assault landing zones to determine the level of existing weather operations or the requirement for weather

OREGON MILITARY DEPARTMENT Command Brief American Meteorological Society Col Mike Bieniewicz

Federal Mission Provide trained combat ready, front-line units to deploy in support of the national military strategy – to deter war. State Mission Provide the citizens of the State of Oregon and the United States with a ready force of citizen soldiers and airmen, equipped and trained to respond to any contingency, natural or manmade. 52

Manning Levels FSA/Authorized Assigned Army Guard 6428* 6618 Air Guard 2202 2187 8630 8795 Totals * NGB Authorized Strength: 6650 Information current as of 6 Jan 12 53

Chain of Command Governor Kitzhaber Salem TAG MG Rees Salem Deputy Director and State Defense Force Commander BG Caldwell 41 IBCT Tigard ARMY BG Bush Salem 82 BDE Lake Oswego AIR Brig Gen Gregg Salem 173 FW Klamath Falls Oregon Emergency Management COG Col Bieniewicz Portland 142 FW Portland 54

Unit Locations Camp Rilea Milton-Freewater Camp Rilea Jackson St. Helens Hood River Portland IAP Hillsboro Pendleton Gresham Forest Grove Mc. Minnville Hermiston Kliever The Dalles Pendleton AASF Camp Withycombe Clackamas La Grande Lake Oswego Tigard Woodburn Warrenton to Ashland Dallas Monmouth RTI Salem JFHQ, ARC, 17 St. , AASF Baker City Albany Newport Corvallis Lebanon Redmond Prineville Ontario 340 Biak 162 Regiment AFRC Bend Burns Coos Bay Roseburg Grants Pass Medford Ashland Klamath Falls 425 Coos Bay to Ontario 55

Deployments Since 2002 13080 Service Members Deployed Since 2002 Operation Southern Watch Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF - Afghanistan) State Fires 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) ONE 2004 OIF OEF 1396 62 2005 OIF 152 OEF 127 TF Katrina 1, 930 529 108 1600 1305 66 2006 OIF OEF 2007 OIF OEF GTMO 2008 OIF OEF 2009 OIF OEF 3 942 2010 OIF/New Dawn (OND) 549 OEF 253 2011 337 5 6 39 17 3267 111 OND OEF 12 258 2012 OND OEF 0 170 2013 OND OEF 0* 20* *FY 2013 Numbers are projected based off of current sourcing requirements 56

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO Operations/Deployments Canada 142 FW (1) Germany 142 FW (1) JFHQ (1) AIR – CONUS 142 FW (5) 173 FW (3) COG (2) Afghanistan 142 FW (2) 173 FW (1) COG (12) 1186 MP (146) 115 MPAD (18) 2 -641 AV (3) Kyrgyzstan 142 FW (1) England 173 FW (2) ARMY – CONUS MOB/DEMOB sites (2) Operational Support (0) CBWTU (53) WTU (26) ALT MTF (7) NGB (75) SW Border (2) Egypt C 7 -158 AV (1) Qatar 142 FW (2) COG (1) UAE 142 FW (6) 173 FW (1) COG (1) Kuwait 142 FW (2) 173 FW (1) C 7 -158 AV (20) Bahrain 142 FW (3) Djibouti JFHQ (1) Army 353 Air 46 Joint Total 399 UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO 57

Oregon Air National Guard 58

Oregon Air National Guard • 2200+ Members • Two F-15 Wings – Portland – 142 FW - Air Defense – Klamath Falls – 173 FW – F-15 Training • Combat Ops Group – Special Ops – ATC – Air Battle Management – Weather Guarding America – Defending Freedom

Oregon ANG Units Warrenton • 142 FW • Aerospace Control Alert (ACA) 116 ACS • 173 FW • F-15 C/D FTU (ANG & Active Duty) • State Combat Operations Group (COG) • 116 th Air Control Squadron • 270 th Air Traffic Control Squadron • 123 rd Weather Flight • 125 th Special Tactics Squadron • State Partnership Program • Bangladesh • Vietnam Portland 142 FW COG/HQ 125 STS 123 WF Salem JFHQ 173 FW 270 ATCS Klamath Falls 60

142 d Fighter Wing Provide 24/7 Air Defense of the Pacific Northwest, Dominate the Air Superiority Arena, and Support National Security Objectives Guarding America – Defending Freedom

173 d Fighter Wing Produce the best air-to-air combat pilots, intelligence specialists, and healthcare professionals and serve our nation and state in times of peace and war

Combat Operations Group To provide our nation, state, allies and partners with the means to plan and conduct air, space, and cyberspace operations, any time, any where 63

Questions? 64