Steps Towards Sustainable Mobility Automotive News World Congress

Steps Towards Sustainable Mobility Automotive News World Congress Bill Reinert Toyota Motor Sales, U. S. A. January 22, 2008

The “Big 4” – Issues facing the auto industry Global development of industry & technology in the 21 st century Accelerated consumption of fossil fuels 1. Energy & Fuel Diversification 2. CO 2 reduction Population growth (esp. BRIC) Growing number of motor vehicles 3. Air Quality 4. Urban Congestion

Third crisis, world peaks and OPEC plateaus Second crisis, Non-OPEC peaks EIA 2007 forecast (1. 5% pa) 0. 75% pa demand First crisis, Non OPEC less FSU peaks OPEC FSU Other liquids, biofuels, etc. Spare capacity Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells Non-OPEC less FSU

World production World discoveries, 5 year average Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells

Energy Use and Water Requirements Biodiesel Refining Soy Irrigation Ethanol Processing Corn Irrigation Hydrogen Electrolysis Hydrogen Reforming Uranium Processing Uranium Mining Oil Storage in Salt Cavern Oil Sands Oil Shale In-Situ Oil Shale Surface Retort Refining Enhanced Oil Recovery Petroleum Extraction Gas Storage in Salt Cavern Natural Gas Pipeline Operations Natural Gas Extraction & Processing Coal Gasification Coal Slurry Coal Liquefaction Coal Washing Coal Mining 1 10 100000

Growth in Vehicle Ownership and Urban Congestion

Sustainable Mobility – Overview A system approach Sustainable Mobility Products Energy Environment Partnerships to power the product in which the product “lives” Required to bring these products to market

Life Cycle Assessment and Air Quality

LCA Example – CO 2 from Materials Production kg CO 2/kg

Prius LCA and Air Quality

Solutions—Toyota’s Approach 1. Balance reduction of environmental impact with meeting Consumer Wants 2. Mass market appeal 3. Life Cycle Assessment

Prius Development

Types of Plug-ins There are many variations on the PHEV idea – Different battery sizes – Degree of ICE involvement – All Electric Range (AER) vs. Blended Strategy Engine Stop 0% HV Electric Traditional ICE Prius Parallel HV Prius PHEV FCHV Electric (FC as EV range 100% extender) Electric Series PHEV (ICE as EV range extender) Battery Electric Vehicle (“BEV”)

PHEV Types AER - Volt - Hy-Series - Prius Conversions Blended

Powertrain Comparison PHEV Primary Issues Energy Diversity CO 2 Gasoline Diesel HV EV FC △ △ ○ ◎ ◎ △～○ ○ ◎ ◎ ×→△ ○ ◎ ◎ ×～△ others Emissions ○ Single Fill Range ○ ○ ◎ × ○ Infrastructure ○ ○ ○ × ×× Fuel cost △ △ ○ ◎ ？ Must understand how PHEVs fit in

Plug-ins change the source of the emissions Unless the electricity used to charge the battery comes from a renewable source (e. g. wind, solar), plug-ins trade off tailpipe emissions for emissions at the power plant.

CO 2 Reduction When electricity is generated from low-carbon sources, the CO 2 emissions of a PHV are lower than an HV Well to Wheel CO 2 Emissions （Prius＝１） Prius Equivalent Vehicle ＬＡ＃４ China U. S. 1. 0 Japan 0. 5 France 0. 0 Prius Plug-in The advantage is big in France where nuclear power generation is common. There is no advantage in China, which mainly uses coal-fired power plants.

Comparison of PHEVs and HEV • Recovery • Transport • Processin g • Transport • Storage

PHEV Marketability Issues Currently, no commercial potential with such a large increase in battery load To provide 60 km electric drive range would require about 12 times the battery capacity of the current Prius More batteries バッテリ搭載イメージ Current現状プリウス Prius

Battery Life vs. Charge Cycle

Li Ion Battery Technology – Development and Testing Single Cell Modules Full Packs Real World Increasing Most “advanced” Li-Ion batteries • Limited “real world” knowledge in vehicle application – Toyota has experience with mild hybrid Vitz – Limited number of conversions and specialty vehicles • Must gain experience with Li-Ion technology in HEV before PHEV • Key issues to be resolved – Safety – Durability (Life of vehicle) & reliability (≥Ni. MH) – Cost – End of life recycling

PHEV Contribution to Energy Consumption (%) 100 Cumulative percent of personal automobiles 50 Approx. 35% Cumulative percent of energy consumption for travel distance Approx. 20% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Average Daily Travel Distance Vehicle (miles) Source: 1990 Nationwide personal Transportation survey American Driving Patterns

AB 1811 – Encompasses all aspects of Sustainable Mobility Products FCHV PHEV HV Energy Environment Partnerships to power the product in which the product “lives” Required to bring these products to market H 2 Elec. ? Urban LCA ’ 08 Proto ’ 10 PHEV Transp. System ZEV-NET Air Quality Modeling Univ. Govt. UCI BA/SC AQMD UCB H 2 Infra. 1811 NGOs

Conclusions • Geopolitics surrounding remaining oil supplies will increase focus on energy security • Climate change solutions will fight for “shelf space” with energy security and land use issues • Decreased water supplies due to prolonged drought and contamination are a more near term threat than impacts from climate change • Focus should be on most profound issues first • Societal preparation for greatly increased energy costs is key for carbon reduction plans