Step 1 When Beginning to any analytical project

Step 1 When: Beginning to any analytical project or decision brief. Key Assumptions Check Identify the issue. q State the current analytical line. UNCLASSIFIED Identify List Study Decide The Issue __________________ _ The current analytical______ line is… ________________________________________________________________________________ A Refresher for UFMCS graduates. 1234 Recap

Step 2 Key Assumptions Check List the assumptions. q Each stated or implied premise. o That must be accepted as true. o In order for the analytical line to remain valid. Identify List Study Decide The Issue ________________________________ Assumptions ___________________ The current analytical line is… _________________ Assumption 1… ________________________________ Assumption 2… ________________ Assumption 3… Assumption 4… Assumption 5… 1234 Recap

Step 3 Key Assumptions Check Study the logic of each assumption. q Assess the validity of each assumption, past -- now. q Depict each assumption in some way. Identify List Study Decide The Issue ________________________________ Assumptions Assessment ___________________ The current analytical line is… Likely valid and certain, since…; _________________ Assumption 1… the risk is not. . . ________________ Depicting connections is another way to assess ________________ valid, given… , but unclear; Assumption 2… 1 Likely ________________ Assumption has 3 connections the risk is not. . . 2 ________________ Assumption 2 has 0 connections 1 invalid, given…, but uncertain; Assumption has 1 connections Assumption 3… 3 Likely is. . . Assumption 4 the has risk 2 connections 4 3 5 Possibly valid, because… and…, but Assumption 5 has 2 connections Assumption 4… uncertain; the risk is not… Assumption 5… Possibly invalid, because…, but insufficient reason to eliminate; the risk is… The Validity 1234 Recap

Step 4 Key Assumptions Check Decide which to: q Keep, q Modify, q or Delete. Identify List Study Decide The Issue ________________________________ Assumptions Assessment ___________________ The current analytical line is… Likely valid and certain, since…; _________________ Assumption 1… ________________ the risk is not. . . ________________ Assumption 2… Likely valid, given… , but unclear; ________________ the risk is not. . . ________________ Assumption 3… Likely invalid, given…, but uncertain; Depicting connections is another wayrisk to assess the is. . . Assumption 1 has 3 connections 1 2 valid, because… and…, but Assumption 2 has 0 connections. Possibly Assumption 4… Assumption 3 has 1 connectionsuncertain; the risk is not… Assumption 4 has 2 connections 3 5 4 Assumption 5 has 2 connections. Possibly invalid, because…, but insufficient X Assumption 5… reason to eliminate; the risk is… KEY Assumptions 1234 Recap

Recap Key Assumptions Check When: Beginning to any analytical project or decision brief. Identify q The issue & assumptions. q Logic and conditions. q Jumping to conclusions or accepting flawed logic. List Study Decide The Issue ________________________________ Assumptions Assessment ___________________ The current analytical line is… Likely valid and certain, since…; _________________ Assumption 1… ________________ the risk is not. . . ________________ Likely valid, given… , but unclear; Assumption 2…________________ the risk is not. . . ________________ Assumption Depicting connections is another way to assess Assumption 1 has 3 connections 1 2 Assumption 2 has 0 connections Assumption 3 has 1 connections Assumption 4 has 2 connections 3 5 4 Assumption 5 has 2 connections X 3… Likely invalid, given…, but uncertain; the risk is. . . 4… Possibly valid, because… and…, but uncertain; the risk is not… Assumption 5… Adapted Richards J. Heuer Jr and Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press, 2015). Possibly invalid, because…, but insufficient reason to eliminate; the risk is… 1234 Recap