Step 1 Premortem Analysis When To anticipate problems

Step 1 Premortem Analysis When: To anticipate problems and strengthen a plan. PREPARE Select the participants. Schedule the meeting. Shape the meeting room. Study the current plan. Be familiar with the plan. This Refresher is intended for UFMCS graduates. 123456 Recap

Step 2 Premortem Analysis E IN AG “What could have caused this failure to occur? ” IM Imagine the plan was executed AND IT FAILED … 123456 Recap

Premortem Analysis Take a few minutes to list as many reasons as possible. q question the assumptions and tasks Stress test the plan. Reason 2 Reason 1 NE RA TE q embrace skepticism Reason 3 GE Step 3 123456 Recap

Step 4 Premortem Analysis Combine everyone’s reasons, while a scribe compiles a long aggregate list. Why did the plan fail? q Reason 1 Reason … 3 Reason 3 q Reason 2 … Reason 2 q Reason 3… 1 Reason q 3 Reason 4 … q Reason 5 … Reason 2 Reason 1 q Reason 6 … Reason 3 q Reason 7 … q Reason 3 8 …Reason 3 2 Reason 1 q Reason 9 Reason … 2 Reason 2 q Reason 10 Reason … 1 Reason 1 q Reason 11 … q Reason 12 COMPILE 123456 Recap

Step 5 Premortem Analysis As a group, crosswalk each reason and assign “an owner” to mitigate the flaws. TE GA TI MI Why did the plan fail? q Reason 1 … q Reason 2 … q Reason 3 … q Reason 4 … q Reason 5 … q Reason 6 … q Reason 7 … q Reason 8 … q Reason 9 … q Reason 10 … q Reason 11 … q Reason 12 123456 Recap

Revisit a Premortem Analysis as variables change, i. e. , tasks get carried out or the plan evolves. Dr. Gary Klein: • The Power of Intuition, NY: Doubleday, 2003, pages 98 -101. • Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998, p. 71. Repeat the process or review the list. VI SI T Premortem Analysis RE Step 6 Why did the plan fail? q Reason 1 Reason … 3 Reason 3 q Reason 2… 2 Reason 2 q Reason 3… 1 Reason q 3 Reason 4 … Reason 2 q Reason 5 … Reason 1 q Reason 6 … Reason 3 q Reason 7 … Reason 3 q Reason 8… 3 2 Reason 1 q. Reason 9 Reason … 2 2 q Reason 10 … Reason 1 q Reason 11 … q Reason 12 123456 Recap

Premortem Analysis To anticipate problems and strengthen a plan. NE RA TE COMPILE GE RE We become overconfident in our plan. We need to imagine a failed outcome to find its weaknesses. Expect some resistance … we DO NOT like to contemplate failure. E IN AG “Assume the plan has failed. ” Why did the plan fail? q Reason 1 Reason … 3 Reason 3 q Reason 2… 2 Reason 2 q Reason 3… 1 Reason q 3 Reason 4 … Reason 2 q Reason 5 … Reason 1 q Reason 6 … Reason 3 q Reason 7 … Reason 3 q Reason 8… 3 2 Reason 1 q. Reason 9 Reason … 2 2 q Reason 10 … 1 Reason 1 q Reason 11 … q Reason 12 TE GA TI MI Rules 1. More ideas are better. 2. Build upon one another's ideas. 3. Risk-free. No judgments or criticisms. 4. Welcome all ideas; conventional or not. PREPARE IM Need to: A. Provide 1 group, 1 facilitator, and 1 scribe. B. Revisit the exercise as variables change. C. Be familiar with the current plan. VI SI T Recap 123456 Recap