Status Quo Thinking Heavierthanair flying machines are impossible
Status Quo Thinking “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. ” – Lord Kelvin, 1895 “A severe depression like that of 1920 -1921 is outside the range of probability. ” – Harvard Economic Society, 1929 “With only fifty foreign cars on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big stake in the U. S. ” – Business Week, 1968 “I think there is a world market for about five computers. ” – Thomas Watson - IBM, 1943 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. ” – Ken Olson - DEC, 1977 “We don’t like [the Beatles’] sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out. ” – Decca Recording, 1962 Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 “No matter what happens, the U. S. Navy is not going to be caught napping. ” – Secretary of the Navy, December 4, 1941 r is e p a ep Mor tter! be
USC Business Development Model Scenario Description Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER CENTER
Organizational Chart USC Engineering Technology Transfer Center Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997
The RTTC Network Mid-West We provide: Northeast • Affiliates in Every State • Information Dissemination • Technical Assistance • Regional Incubators Technology Licensing • Cooperative R&D • Reimbursable Technology Development • Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997 Mid-Atlantic Far West Mid-Continent Southeast
Innovation “There is a better and easier way to do everything — find it!” - Thomas Edison • Disciplined method for imagining the future by examining the joint simultaneous impact of several uncertainties • Attempts to identify patterns and clusters • Particularly good when examining revolutionary change • Compensate for underprediction (most common error by institutions) and overprediction (most common error by futurists) • Looks to plot a middle ground by using: – incremental expansion of trends (momentum) – possible states of a highly uncertain factor (interest rates) Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997
Management Trends Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: July 31, 1997
Industry Clusters for the Far West Region Seattle Aerospace/Defense Tourism and Recreation Richland Business Services San Francisco Bay Area Electronics Machinery and Systems Biomedical Products Los Angeles Aerospace/Defense Electronics Machinery and Systems Biomedical Products Business Services Info/Media and Entertainment Educational Services Tourism and Recreation Presented by: Ken Dozier Date: Sept. 5, 1997 Financial Services Transportation and Distribution Reno Home and Lifestyle Products Fashion, Apparel and Textiles Health Services Agriculture and Food Processing Energy and Process Materials Forest Products Metals Construction Products Modesto Agriculture and Food Products Merced Agriculture and Food Products Las Vegas Tourism and Recreation
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