Status Quo analysis of economic targets in LEDGP

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Status Quo analysis of economic targets in LEDGP and NDP

Status Quo analysis of economic targets in LEDGP and NDP

Introduction • Provide analysis of economic growth, inequality and unemployment in LEGDP and NDP

Introduction • Provide analysis of economic growth, inequality and unemployment in LEGDP and NDP • Overview about implications of reaching targets in NDP by 2030 in Limpopo

Economic Growth LEGDP target = 7, 5% NDP = average GDP growth rate of

Economic Growth LEGDP target = 7, 5% NDP = average GDP growth rate of 5, 4%

Economic Growth in Limpopo since 2001

Economic Growth in Limpopo since 2001

Contribution to the national economy

Contribution to the national economy

Analysis of growth potential National economy

Analysis of growth potential National economy

Historical SA growth performance

Historical SA growth performance

SA growth performance

SA growth performance

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation

Balance on the Current account

Balance on the Current account

SA growth constraint • Ceese Bruggemans – Long run growth 3 -3 , 5%

SA growth constraint • Ceese Bruggemans – Long run growth 3 -3 , 5% • Will probably not even reach 3% this year • SA highly dependant on imports – Bo. P constraint • Skills crises. Schools not providing the skills needed for modern economy • Electricity and infrastructure constraints • Railways and harbours

Analysis of growth potential Provincial economy

Analysis of growth potential Provincial economy

HP filter for Limpopo province 6 5 4 4. 4 3. 89 4. 8

HP filter for Limpopo province 6 5 4 4. 4 3. 89 4. 8 4. 3 3. 72 3 3. 56 3. 1 3. 40 4. 5 3. 23 3. 07 2. 4 2 2. 90 2. 6 2. 74 2. 6 2. 56 actual HP 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -1. 7

GDP per capita

GDP per capita

GDP per capita LEGDP • The LEGDP does not have a specific target for

GDP per capita LEGDP • The LEGDP does not have a specific target for GDP per capita NDP • GDP per capita to increase from R 50 000 to R 110 000 in constant prices

GDP per capita 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP 109 094 113

GDP per capita 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP 109 094 113 967 116 923 114 978 117 935 120 582 5 316 325 5 347 061 5 371 643 5 387 332 5 411 815 5 435 966 20 521 21 314 21 767 21 342 21 792 22 182 [Millons) Population GDP per capita *Based on 2005 base year Population numbers from Global Insight

Analysis • Limpopo GDP per capital much lower than NDP base value of R

Analysis • Limpopo GDP per capital much lower than NDP base value of R 50 000 • GDP per capita – 4, 95 times increase to reach 2030 target • GDP to increase to R 605 000 million • R 26 912 million annual increase (average 9% pa)

Poverty • NDP target R 418 per month reduced from 39% to 0 in

Poverty • NDP target R 418 per month reduced from 39% to 0 in 2030 • Limpopo halving poverty before 2014

Number of households by income category Limpopo, African 120% 100% 80% 2400000+ 12000002400000 6000001200000

Number of households by income category Limpopo, African 120% 100% 80% 2400000+ 12000002400000 6000001200000 3600000 192000360000 132000192000 96000132000 72000 -96000 60% 40% 20% 54000 -72000 42000 -54000 0% 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Poverty Overview Limpopo, Total 1 3, 000 1 2, 500, 000 1 Nr of

Poverty Overview Limpopo, Total 1 3, 000 1 2, 500, 000 1 Nr of people in poverty 3, 500, 000 2, 000 0 1, 500, 000 0 1, 000 0 500, 000 0 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Nr of people in poverty Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Inequality

Inequality

Targets • • LEGDP No target was set for Inequality in the LEGDP NDP

Targets • • LEGDP No target was set for Inequality in the LEGDP NDP Overall Gini reduced from 0, 7 to 0, 6 by 2030.

Gini coefficient in Limpopo Gini coefficient Limpopo, Total 0. 68 0. 66 0. 64

Gini coefficient in Limpopo Gini coefficient Limpopo, Total 0. 68 0. 66 0. 64 0. 62 0. 60 0. 58 0. 56 0. 54 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Inequality in Limpopo • Gini already in target range of 0, 6 -0, 7

Inequality in Limpopo • Gini already in target range of 0, 6 -0, 7 • Well developed countries 0, 4 • Possible target 0, 5

Unemployment

Unemployment

Targets LEGDP target • To create 262000 jobs by 2014 • To halve unemployment

Targets LEGDP target • To create 262000 jobs by 2014 • To halve unemployment by 2014. NDP Target • Reduce unemployment to 14 % in 2020 and 6% in 2030

Job creation – 2009 -2013 • 2009 – 905000 • 2013 – 1092000 •

Job creation – 2009 -2013 • 2009 – 905000 • 2013 – 1092000 • 187000 jobs created

Unemployment rate, official definition (%) Limpopo, Total - Total 400, 000 0 350, 000

Unemployment rate, official definition (%) Limpopo, Total - Total 400, 000 0 350, 000 0 300, 000 Number of unemployed people 0 250, 000 0 200, 000 0 150, 000 0 100, 000 0 50, 000 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Number of unemployed people Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Analysis to reach NDP target • Unemployment rate 19, 6% Dec 2012 • Unemployed

Analysis to reach NDP target • Unemployment rate 19, 6% Dec 2012 • Unemployed 266 000 out of labour force of 1358 000 • Potential labour force 3 442 000 • 2084 000 not economically • 330 000 discourage workers • Need additional 75880 jobs by December 2019 • Need additional 184520 jobs by 2030 • Assumptions very conservative

Access to basic services • LEGDP: no target • NDP - In 2030 all

Access to basic services • LEGDP: no target • NDP - In 2030 all South African citizens will have affordable access to sufficient safe water and hygienic sanitation to live healthy and dignified lives.

Limpopo Households by toilet facilities Limpopo 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% No

Limpopo Households by toilet facilities Limpopo 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% No toilet 30% Bucket system 20% 10% 0% 1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Access to water Households by water infrastructure Limpopo 120% 100% 80% 60% None >200

Access to water Households by water infrastructure Limpopo 120% 100% 80% 60% None >200 m from dwelling <200 m from dwelling In Yard 40% 20% Inside dwelling 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Household Infrastructure Overview Limpopo 1 1 1 Index 1 0 0 Limpopo 0 0

Household Infrastructure Overview Limpopo 1 1 1 Index 1 0 0 Limpopo 0 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: IHS Global Insight Regional e. Xplorer version 658

Conclusion • • NDP targets could be achieved in Limpopo Need correct policy measures

Conclusion • • NDP targets could be achieved in Limpopo Need correct policy measures Do things differently to get different results Need social dialogue to determine different roles of social partners

WCRP Quo vadis SPARC Quo vadis Monday OpenWCRP Quo vadis SPARC Quo vadis Monday Open
Status quo bias Avoiding action Avoiding change StatusStatus quo bias Avoiding action Avoiding change Status
STATUS QUO MARKTGRUPPE ESKO POLSKA UND MAGYARORSZG STATUSSTATUS QUO MARKTGRUPPE ESKO POLSKA UND MAGYARORSZG STATUS
Execution of the status quo analysis self assessmentExecution of the status quo analysis self assessment
Execution of the status quo analysis self assessmentExecution of the status quo analysis self assessment
Execution of the status quo analysis self assessmentExecution of the status quo analysis self assessment
Status quo analysis Structure of the report 1Status quo analysis Structure of the report 1
Execution of the status quo analysis self assessmentExecution of the status quo analysis self assessment
Economic Analysis 1 Economic Analysis Analysis of AlternativesEconomic Analysis 1 Economic Analysis Analysis of Alternatives
Economic Growth Vs Economic Development Economic growth EconomicEconomic Growth Vs Economic Development Economic growth Economic
Reflection on targets set Identify reflect upon targetsReflection on targets set Identify reflect upon targets
Review Learning Targets Lesson 2 Learning Targets IReview Learning Targets Lesson 2 Learning Targets I
Learning Targets Using Learning Targets Effectively in theLearning Targets Using Learning Targets Effectively in the
Begin with clear targets n Clear targets leadBegin with clear targets n Clear targets lead
Session 2 SDGs Targets and Indicators SDGs targetsSession 2 SDGs Targets and Indicators SDGs targets
Kinetic Molecular Theory Targets and Review Targets ReviewKinetic Molecular Theory Targets and Review Targets Review
Scottish Dietary Targets Nutrition targets for 2005 BasedScottish Dietary Targets Nutrition targets for 2005 Based
Targets Management Office Condition Categories Ground Targets GuideTargets Management Office Condition Categories Ground Targets Guide
Sales Mastery Mindset targets en doelen Mindset targetsSales Mastery Mindset targets en doelen Mindset targets
Element of Targets Priority Targets Quantitative Aspects CompleteElement of Targets Priority Targets Quantitative Aspects Complete
The TDR Targets Database Prioritizing potential drug targetsThe TDR Targets Database Prioritizing potential drug targets
Begin with clear targets n Clear targets leadBegin with clear targets n Clear targets lead
Review Learning Targets Lesson 2 Learning Targets IReview Learning Targets Lesson 2 Learning Targets I
Percentage Of Targets Achieved 2 3 of targetsPercentage Of Targets Achieved 2 3 of targets