STAT 250 Dr Kari Lock Morgan Synthesis Big

STAT 250 Dr. Kari Lock Morgan Synthesis Big Picture Essential Synthesis • Synthesis and Review Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Final �Tuesday, December 15 th, 10: 10 am – 12 pm � 102 Forum �No make-ups, no excuses � 30% of your course grade �Cumulative from the entire course �Open only to a calculator and 3 single-sided pages of notes �Review readings and problems posted on Wiley. Plus Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

To Do �STUDY FOR FINAL! �Do HW 10 (due Friday, 12/11) �Post-test (due Tuesday, 12/15, before final) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Question of the Day What predicts initial romantic attraction? Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Romance • What variables help to predict romantic interest? • Do these variables differ for males and females? • All we need to figure this out is DATA! (For all of you, being almost done with STAT 250, this is the case for many interesting questions!) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Speed Dating • We will use data from speed dating conducted at Columbia University, 2002 -2004 • 276 males and 276 females from Columbia’s various graduate and professional schools • Each person met with 10 -20 people of the opposite sex for 4 minutes each • After each encounter each person said either “yes” (they would like to be put in touch with that partner) or “no” Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Speed Dating Data What are the cases? a) Students participating in speed dating b) Speed dates c) Ratings of each student Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Speed Dating What is the population? Ideal population? More realistic population? Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Speed Dating It is randomly determined who the students will be paired with for the speed dates. We find that people are significantly more likely to say “yes” to people they think are more intelligent. Can we infer causality between perceived intelligence and wanting a second date? a) Yes b) No Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Successful Speed Date? What is the chance that a speed date is successful (results in both people wanting a second date)? To best answer this question, we should use a) b) c) d) e) Descriptive statistics Confidence Interval Hypothesis Test Chi-square test Regression Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Successful Speed Date? 63 of the 276 speed dates were deemed successful (both male and female said yes). A 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of successful speed dates is a) b) c) d) (0. 2, 0. 3) (0. 18, 0. 28) (0. 21, 0. 25) (0. 13, 0. 33) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Pickiness and Gender Are males or females more picky when it comes to saying yes? Guesses? a) Males b) Females Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Pickiness and Gender Males Yes No 146 130 Females 127 149 Are males or females more picky when it comes to saying yes? How could you answer this? a) b) c) d) e) Test for a single proportion Test for a difference in proportions Chi-square test for association ANOVA Either (b) or (c) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Pickiness and Gender Do males and females differ in their pickiness? Using α = 0. 05, how would you answer this? a) Yes b) No c) Not enough information Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Reciprocity Male says Yes Male says No Female says Yes 63 64 Female says No 83 66 Are people more likely to say yes to someone who says yes back? How would you best answer this? a) b) c) d) Descriptive statistics Confidence Interval Hypothesis Test Regression Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Reciprocity Male says Yes Male says No Female says Yes 63 64 Female says No 83 66 Are people more likely to say yes to someone who says yes back? How could you answer this? a) b) c) d) e) Test for a single proportion Test for a difference in proportions Chi-square test for association ANOVA Either (b) or (c) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Reciprocity �Are people more likely to say yes to someone who says yes back? �p-value = Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Race and Response: Females Does the chance of females saying yes to males differ by race? Asian Black Caucasian Latino Other 0. 50 0. 57 0. 42 0. 48 0. 53 How could you answer this question? a) b) c) d) e) Test for a single proportion Test for a difference in proportions Chi-square goodness of fit Chi-square test for association ANOVA Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Race and Response: Males Each person rated their date on a scale of 1 -10 based on how much they liked them overall. Does how much males like females differ by race? How would you test this? a) b) c) d) e) Chi-square test t-test for a difference in means Matched pairs test ANOVA Either (b) or (d) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Physical Attractiveness Each person also rated their date from 1 -10 on the physical attractiveness. Do males rate females higher, or do females rate males higher? Which tool would you use to answer this question? a) b) c) d) e) Two-sample difference in means Matched pair difference in means Chi-Square ANOVA Correlation Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Physical Attractiveness The histogram shown is of the Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data a) b) c) d) data bootstrap distribution randomization distribution sampling distribution Lock 5

Other Ratings �Each person also rated their date from 1 -10 on the following attributes: Attractiveness Sincerity Intelligence How fun the person seems Ambition Shared interests �Which of these best predict how much someone will like their date? Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Multiple Regression MALES RATING FEMALES: FEMALES RATING MALES: Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Ambition and Liking Do people prefer their dates to be less ambitious? ? ? How does the perceived ambition of a date relate to how much the date is liked? How would you answer this question? a) b) c) d) e) Inference for difference in means ANOVA Inference for correlation Inference for simple linear regression Either (b), (c) or (d) Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Simple Linear Regression MALES RATING FEMALES: FEMALES RATING MALES: Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

Ambition and Liking r = 0. 44, SE = 0. 05 Find a 95% CI for . Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5

After taking STAT 250: �If you have a question that needs answering… ALL YOU NEED IS DATA!!! Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5