SREF Applications at AWC Dr Steverino Silberberg Aviation
SREF Applications at AWC Dr. Steverino Silberberg Aviation Weather Center October 31, 2006 NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop
AWC-EMC Collaboration n Aviation-specific SREF guidance n n n Binbin Zhou, Jun Du, Jeff Mc. Queen probabilistic guidance for aviation weather forecasts experimental
Aviation SREF Methodology n n n Generate aviation-related diagnostics & variables in common post (ETA, WRF, RSM) Produce ensemble products in SREF post Graphics on Aviation-SREF website
Aviation SREF Algorithms n n AWC-developed Externally-developed n n RUC-based deterministic guidance: e. g. icing (CIP, FIP), turb (GTG), etc. AWC-EMC collaboration during assimilation of algorithms into SREF operations
Aviation SREF Feedback n n n Reduce/access/calibrate uncertainty Reduce/represent model error Provide distribution characteristics, etc.
Aviation SREF Feedback n n n New products Algorithm enhancements, changes One-hour output F 00 -F 24 Add global ensemble Add to SREF ops on CCS & GEMPAK data flow
Aviation SREF Feedback n Application to AWC production & products n FAA requires deterministic aviation forecast products – except for probabilistic collaborative convective forecast product (CCFP)
Aviation SREF Verification/Validation n Is truth out there? n n n NCEP FVS works for regular weather not for aviation weather n n n If a tree falls in a forest … PIREPS difficult to use low level wind shear has been verified in FVS adapt FVS to aviation Collaborate with RTVS for aviation verification/validation
SREF Aviation Product List Variables Products Levels/Regions Algorithms Icing Prob of occurrence (100’s of ft) 240, 180, 150, 120, 090, 060, 030, 000 T-RH-Vertical drift Cloud water/ ice/snow Clear air turbulence (CAT) Prob of occurrence (LGT, MDT, SVR) (100’s of ft) 420, 390, 360, 330, 300, 270, 240, 210 Ellrod 1992 Cloud Mean/spread Prob of ovc, bkn, sct, clr Ceiling, cloud base Model-output
SREF Aviation Product List Variables Products Levels/Regions Algorithms Visibility Mean/spread Surface Stoelinga 1999 Ceiling Mean/spread Ceiling, cloud base Conditional Flight-Restriction Prob of LIFR, MVFR, VFR Vis and/or Ceiling Visibility-ceiling Jet-stream Prob of > 60, 80, 100 kt 45, 180, 340 (100’s of ft. ) Model-output
SREF Aviation Product List Variables Products Levels/Regions Algorithms 10 m-wind speed Mean/spread Prob of > 10, 20, 30 kt 10 m Model-output Convective cloud Mean/spread/ directions Grid convective cloud Low level wind shear (LLWS) Mean/spread Prob of severe (20 kt/2000 ft) Wind vector difference
SREF Aviation Product List Variables Products Levels/Regions Algorithms Tropopause Mean/spread Freezing-level Mean/spread Sfc, 4, 8, 12, 16 (kft) Model-output Fog Prob of occurrence Surface Cloud base/top threshold Mountain obscuration (to be added) Prob of occurrence Mountains RH ≥ 80%, 90% Cloud water/ ice/snow Model-output
Summary n AWC-EMC collaboration n n Robust aviation-specific SREF guidance Verification/validation work difficult, required NAWIPS SREF tools developed by SIB Web NAWIPS path to AWC operations n n Add aviation-specific SREF guidance to SREF ops on CCS & GEMPAK data flow NAWIPS Collaboration with NCEP centers n n NCO & SIB Convective fields (SPC’s David Bright)
- Slides: 18