Special Education Teacher Shortages Building the Data Systems

  • Slides: 21
Download presentation
Special Education Teacher Shortages – Building the Data Systems and Predictive Models to Understand

Special Education Teacher Shortages – Building the Data Systems and Predictive Models to Understand the Scope of the Problem Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at Cortland Rorie Fitzpatrick, Nevada Department of Education William Lange, Lange Research and Evaluation Sharon Schumacher, Alaska Department of Ed. and Early Development

Today’s Objectives • Share Nevada’s & Alaska’s Experiences – Tracking Teacher Attrition – Predicting

Today’s Objectives • Share Nevada’s & Alaska’s Experiences – Tracking Teacher Attrition – Predicting Supply & Demand • Students and Teachers • Discuss the Issues, Using Real Data • Share Some Troubling Trends • Contemplate the Impacts and Next Steps

Teacher Attrition in Nevada Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at Cortland

Teacher Attrition in Nevada Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at Cortland Rorie Fitzpatrick, Nevada Department of Education

Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measure #5 • The Statewide number and

Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measure #5 • The Statewide number and percentage of highly qualified special education teachers in State-identified professional disciplines consistent with sections 602(a)(10) and 612(a)(14) of IDEA, who remain teaching after the first three years of employment. • 483 started / 261 remained = 54%

Mentoring New Special Education Teachers • Clark County (Las Vegas area) • Washoe County

Mentoring New Special Education Teachers • Clark County (Las Vegas area) • Washoe County (Reno area)

Mentoring New Special Education Teachers • Clark County (Las Vegas area) • Lost 16%

Mentoring New Special Education Teachers • Clark County (Las Vegas area) • Lost 16% after 1 year • Lost 30% after 2 years • Washoe County (Reno area) • Lost 25% after 1 year • Lost 45%% after 2 years • Statewide • Lost 19% after 1 year • Lost 32% after 2 years

About the Data Source • Teaching Assignment Database – Teacher, Class, School, District •

About the Data Source • Teaching Assignment Database – Teacher, Class, School, District • Teacher Certification Database – Teacher, Certifications, Age • Used for Reporting Highly Qualified Teachers under NCLB • Designed to look within the year • Rotated database to look across multiple years

Actual Data • Using existing data • All teachers since 1997 • Repurposed the

Actual Data • Using existing data • All teachers since 1997 • Repurposed the data • Tracked a Teacher’s Career • Full Population

Nevada Special Education Teachers Started Left Left Still in after after Teaching fall Total

Nevada Special Education Teachers Started Left Left Still in after after Teaching fall Total 1 2 3 4 5 10 Fall of Hired years years 2008 1998 346 77 39 34 29 18 17 87 1999 397 77 39 46 28 28 117 2000 397 81 50 27 33 22 136 2001 373 89 42 47 29 25 108 2002 439 82 63 57 24 37 148 76 69 49 24 30 167 2003 415 89 69 45 26 244 2004 473 78 56 88 261 2005 483 72 367 2006 543 104 77 375 2007 452 498 2008 498

Nevada Special Education Teachers Started Left Left Still in after after Teaching fall Total

Nevada Special Education Teachers Started Left Left Still in after after Teaching fall Total 1 2 3 4 5 10 Fall of Hired years years 2008 1998 346 22% 11% 10% 8% 5% 5% 29% 1999 397 19% 10% 12% 7% 7% 34% 2000 397 20% 13% 7% 8% 6% 29% 2001 373 24% 11% 13% 8% 7% 2002 439 19% 14% 13% 5% 8% 34% 2003 415 18% 17% 12% 6% 7% 40% 2004 473 19% 15% 10% 5% 52% 2005 483 16% 12% 18% 54% 2006 543 19% 13% 68% 2007 452 17% 83% 2008 498 100%

Cumulative % Nevada Special Education Teachers Started Left Left Still in after after Teaching

Cumulative % Nevada Special Education Teachers Started Left Left Still in after after Teaching fall Total 1 2 3 4 5 10 Fall of Hired years years 2008 1998 346 22% 34% 43% 52% 57% 75% 25% 1999 397 19% 29% 41% 48% 55% 29% 2000 397 20% 33% 40% 48% 54% 34% 29% 2001 373 24% 35% 48% 55% 62% 2002 439 19% 33% 46% 51% 60% 34% 40% 2003 415 18% 35% 47% 53% 60% 52% 2004 473 19% 33% 48% 54% 2005 483 16% 28% 46% 68% 2006 543 19% 32% 83% 2007 452 17% 100% 2008 498

After X Years 1 5 Statewide 81% 42% Orthopedic Impairments 67% Adapted Physical Education

After X Years 1 5 Statewide 81% 42% Orthopedic Impairments 67% Adapted Physical Education 79% 60% Speech & Language Impaired 90% 55% Hearing Impaired 88% 51% Mental Retardation 80% 51% Gifted and Talented 83% 49% Visually Impaired 76% 48% Multiple/Diversely Impaired 77% 44% Seriously Emotionally Disturbed 80% 42% Autism 79% 41% Early Childhood Develop Delayed 80% 40% Generalist 79% 39% Specific Learning Disabilities 87% 36% Health Impairments, not Orthopedic 100% 33% American Sign Language 100% 25% ive % of NV Sp Ed Remaining Teaching 10 25% 67% 58% 34% 29% 34% 19% 28% 21% 24% 29% 19% 21% 33% 0%

Nevada Regular Education Teachers Started in fall of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nevada Regular Education Teachers Started in fall of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Hired 1670 1637 1464 1540 1665 1536 2179 2380 2602 2239 1254 Left Left Still after after Teaching 1 2 3 4 5 10 Fall years years 2008 218 143 146 105 95 45 628 215 166 137 88 107 632 182 133 112 85 118 645 203 142 140 82 94 727 242 175 155 88 90 823 218 143 139 88 82 866 303 249 196 123 1308 345 237 205 1593 328 286 1988 328 1911 1254

Nevada Regular Education Teachers Started in fall of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nevada Regular Education Teachers Started in fall of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Hired 1670 1637 1464 1540 1665 1536 2179 2380 2602 2239 1254 Left after 1 year 13% 12% 13% 15% 14% 14% 13% 15% Left Left Still after after Teaching 2 3 4 5 10 Fall years years 2008 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 628 10% 8% 5% 7% 632 9% 8% 645 727 9% 9% 5% 6% 823 11% 9% 5% 5% 866 9% 9% 6% 5% 1308 11% 9% 6% 1593 10% 9% 1988 11% 1911 1254

Cumulative % NV Reg. Ed. Teachers Started in fall of 1998 1999 2000 2001

Cumulative % NV Reg. Ed. Teachers Started in fall of 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Hired 1670 1637 1464 1540 1665 1536 2179 2380 2602 2239 1254 Left after 1 year 13% 12% 13% 15% 14% 14% 13% 15% Left after 2 years 22% 23% 22% 25% 24% 24% Left after 3 years 30% 32% 29% 31% 34% 33% Left after 4 years 37% 35% 37% 40% 38% 40% Left Still after Teaching 5 10 Fall years 2008 628 42% 632 44% 645 43% 727 43% 823 45% 866 44% 1308 1593 1988 1911 1254

Cumulative Percentage of Nevada Teachers Remaining Teaching by Years of Service After X Years

Cumulative Percentage of Nevada Teachers Remaining Teaching by Years of Service After X Years 1 Regular Only 86% Special Only 84% Mixed 100% All Teachers 87% USA Total* 86% 2 77% 72% 95% 77% 76% 3 68% 62% 92% 68% 67% 4 62% 56% 87% 63% 60% 5 57% 49% 83% 57% 54% 10 38% 33% 65% 39% *from National Commission on Teaching and America's Future. (2003). No Dream Denied: A Pledge to America's Children. Washington, DC: NCTAF.

Percentage of NV Teachers by Assignment 1997 -2008 All service regular All service special

Percentage of NV Teachers by Assignment 1997 -2008 All service regular All service special Reg Ed changed to Sp Ed Reg Ed to Sp Ed & back to Reg Sp Ed changed to Reg Ed Sp Ed to Reg & back to Sp Ed Other changing assignment TOTAL any special education TOTAL mixed Number 34, 625 5, 526 582 351 742 167 137 42, 130 7, 505 1, 979 % of Total Sp Ed 82. 2% 13. 1% 73. 6% 1. 4% 7. 8% 0. 8% 4. 7% 1. 8% 9. 9% 0. 4% 2. 2% 0. 3% 1. 8%

Age of State of Nevada Special Education Teachers Currently Close to Retirement on Oct.

Age of State of Nevada Special Education Teachers Currently Close to Retirement on Oct. 1, 1997 (green solid), 2003 (yellow dash), & 2008 (light blue dot) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79

4. 00% Percentage of Nevada Teachers for Each Age 3. 50% 3. 00% 2.

4. 00% Percentage of Nevada Teachers for Each Age 3. 50% 3. 00% 2. 50% 2. 00% Reg. Spec. 1. 50% 1. 00% 0. 50% 0. 00% 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79

Bermuda Triangle • High Attrition Rates • Large Numbers At or Approaching Retirement •

Bermuda Triangle • High Attrition Rates • Large Numbers At or Approaching Retirement • Difficulty Hiring New Sp Ed Teachers

System Development Considerations • • • Use actual data Sp Ed trends get buried

System Development Considerations • • • Use actual data Sp Ed trends get buried in overall data Mixed assignments = high retention rates Losing large numbers of new teachers Losing more special education teachers than regular education teachers