Space Weather Aviation Operational Needs Bill Murtagh NOAA

Space Weather Aviation Operational Needs Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado David Boteler Geological Survey of Canada Ottawa, Ontario Edmonton CPWG September 2007

Space Weather Storms: Timing & Consequences A Flare and/or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on the Sun ñ 8 Minutes later: EUV and X-ray emission • Radio (HF) communications are lost • GPS signal loss (mostly low and mid-latitude impacts for minutes to <hour) ñ 30 – 1000 minutes later: Energetic Particle onset (Radiation Storm) • HF loss on Polar flights (hours to days) • Increased radiation threat • GPS degradation at high latitudes • Avionics impacted ñ 1 – 4 Days later: Eruptive material (CME) arrives • GPS Systems are affected • Radio Communications are affected Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-group “Aviation Space Weather User Requirements” Work Project Meeting held at United Airlines World HQ, August 10, 2007 David Boteler Natural Resources Canada & International Space Environment Services (ISES) Gene Cameron United Airlines (UA) Bryn Jones AMS-Solar. Metrics Policy Study (SMX) Joe Kunches NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC) Mike Stills United Airlines (UA) Members not present Genene Fisher AMS-Solar. Metrics Policy Study (AMS) Dave Rome NAV CANADA Work of this CPTEWG Space Weather (SW) sub-group is to be carried out with reference to the AMS & Solar. Metrics Policy Workshop Report “Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Aviation Operations” and the Findings and Recommendations found in Section 2 (Policy Issue: Communication of Space Weather Information). UA had been selected as the “operator” to lead this process. All - work will be submitted to CPTEWG for full evaluation and comment by all operators (airlines, business jet and ATC agencies)

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Study Year 2 (2006 -07): Q Policy Workshop, 29 -30 Nov 06 Q Sponsors: Highlights & Full Report online at: www. ametsoc. org/atmospolicy www. solarmetrics. com

Policy Workshop Recommendations Improve Communication of Space Weather Information Q Define requirements for space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making process • Cross Polar Trans East Working Group (CPTEWG), NOAA SEC, International Space Environment Services (ISES) Q Deliver space weather information in an internationally agreed upon standardized format as defined by the aviation user requirements • ISES Regional Warning Centres, FAA Q Increase the interaction between the aviation community and the space weather research and service provider community • Next. Gen sub-Groups, SESAR

The International Space Environment Service (ISES) - The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time international monitoring and prediction of the space environment. - ISES provides standardized space environment products and services to assist users reduce the impact of space weather on activities of human interest. International Space Environment Service (ISES)

Spaceweather. org will provide one-stop shopping for space weather products in support of Polar operations - Ensures consistency of forecast products - Leverages resources of multiple agencies

User Requirements documentation will contain: a. What is needed? (e. g. , severity of storm, onset time, duration, regions & boundaries [lat, long]) b. When is it needed? Products needed to answer this question include: extended outlook, warning, alert, updates, and current conditions c. How is it delivered? (e. g. , graphic and text form, formation to be pushed and pulled, integrated with existing Ops systems). FAA provided guidance to get requirements and related documentation in to the FAA acquisition process: • Con. Ops • Gap Analysis • Functional and Performance Requirements • Alternatives and Investment Analysis.

Establishing Requirements Products (a first draft) Outlook Warning Alert Update 7 -Day 24 hour 12 hour 6 hour X X X Current X As needed ***SAMPLE*** Space Weather Outlook 06 December – 13 December 2007 Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with isolated major flare activity possible. HF communications will likely experience periods of blackout conditions at high latitudes due to solar radiation storms. A major radiation storm is possible. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels through 11 December, and quiet thereafter….

Future Air Transport Radiation Storm Concerns… The need for changes to the NOAA SEC Scale for Solar Radiation Storms was discussed: • S 1 – S 5 scales are based upon particle energies too low to have any significant effect • Scales are applicable elsewhere • SEC will explore a new scale or system for passenger and crew exposure in aircraft based upon particle energies ≥ 100 Me. V • SEC will discuss with airlines how to interpret current information with regard to human exposure from higher energy particles Business Jets, Airlines Commercial Airlines Increasing Dose Rate

Types of Products 1) Polar cap absorption 2) Auroral absorption Phenomena are centered on the geomagnetic pole not the geographic pole. absorption occurs at distinctly different geographic latitudes x x

Graphical product could be provided, or data points for plotting on Existing operational systems Lat Long 48. 89 -76. 23 49. 23 -72. 86 49. 68 -69. 43 50. 24 -65. 91 50. 9 -62. 3 51. 66 -58. 56 52. 51 -54. 66 53. 43 -50. 59 54. 41 -46. 32 55. 41 -41. 82 56. 42 -37. 09 57. 42 -32. 12 58. 37 -26. 91 59. 26 -21. 48 60. 08 -15. 85 60. 8 -10. 06

Note that there is a marked day/night effect in the polar cap absorption

Improve existing products…

Impact Areas Avionics Communications Humans GNSS R I S K Technological Development