Space Objects Limited Resources Space Traffic Management A

Space Objects, Limited Resources, & Space Traffic Management: A view from the field. 2 nd Annual Space Traffic Management Conference: “An Evolving Landscape” 12 – 13 November 2015 Embry-Riddle, Daytona Beach Florida. Dr. Mark A. Skinner Copyright © 2011 Boeing. All rights reserved. PM, Commercial GBSSA

Agenda • So what's the problem? » Space Debris • So what can we do about it? » SSA, SDA, SST, STM; what’s it all about? » International cooperation » Surveillance » Data sharing » Doing something about debris • Next best steps • Conclusions - 2

How can we limit the problem? http: //actu. epfl. ch/news/cleaning-up-earth-s-orbit-a-swiss-satellite-tack-2/ , accessed 4/6/14 http: //www. minorplanetcenter. net/, Accessed 2/2/14 Photo by the author Space Data Association Boeing Photo - 3

How does STM differ from SSA & SST? Space Situational Awareness ‘Space Domain Awareness’ National Security/Military aspects Space Surveillance & Tracking “Intent” Characterization Catalog Command & Control Positions/“metrics” Conjunction Assessment /COLA ADR or JCA Space Weather? Launch Sub-orbital De-orbit Space Traffic Management Military C - 4

Elements that support STM • International cooperation » Inexpensive, but medium-term – Not fixing existing problem, but for a better future • Data sharing, on an international basis » Commercial Aerospace is global » Inexpensive, short-term – With some limitations • Additional Space Surveillance » Inexpensive, short-term (ground-based) • Debris Removal/Collision Avoidance » Expensive, long-term – But needs to be researched now… - 5

International Cooperation UN (HQ, NYC) UNIDIR* (GVA) COPUOS (VIE) -Space-related- Military/Disarmament issues Legal SC 1959; 77 members -Secretariat is UNOOSA- Outer Space Treaties Principles of use of NPS in space Capacity building in Space Law National mechanisms for space debris National legislation on peaceful uses of space Science & Tech SC Nuclear Power Systems SPIDER+ (disaster management) Space Debris Space Weather Use of GEO Long-term sustainability Decisions are reached by absolute consensus +United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response *United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research UNOOSA= United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs - 6

Feb. 2015 proposal for a UN space object data sharing centre… This proposal, and the reaction to it, has led to the establishment of a new UN COPUOS Expert Group at the June 2015 meeting to study the issue of space data sharing • 1. This Working paper has been prepared in the context of the continuing discussion within the STSC Working Group on the Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities of concepts of information support aimed at meeting common needs in the field of safety of space operations and developing procedures for maintaining informational awareness of States and international intergovernmental organizations of objects and events in outer space. • 2. The Russian Federation, having proposed for consideration the basic elements of the concept of establishing a unified Centre for Information on Near. Earth Space Monitoring under the auspices of the United Nations… without prejudice to the functionality and feasibility of any other forms of developing and leveraging capabilities to support the objective of information sharing in this area. • 3. It may be presumed that a United Nations information platform could potentially be accommodated within the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (OOSA)… • 4. It is also presumed that the initial implementation phase of establishing a platform may involve gathering, collation and dissemination of information on monitoring space objects and events using information connectivity to interested States and authorized users… This ignores the non-State actors… - 7

Entities that currently perform some of the STM tasks http: //www. stratcom. mil/factsheets/USSTRATCOM_Space_Control_and_Space_Surveillance/ , retrieved 6/15/2012 Perek , Luboš, “Actual Situation in the Geostationary Orbit, ” 49 th session of the UN COPUOS Scientific and Technical Subcommittee, Vienna Feb 2012 • US Space Command » Ground-based optical & radar, space-based optical • Other governments/entities: » ISON network of small telescopes » ESA/EU, national assets • Emerging commercial providers (e. g. Boeing, AGI, Exo, etc. ) - 8

The existing public "Catalog"… "TLE" for the ISS: Catalog incomplete, missing useful information (AMR, covariance) - 9

What could be done that would be a better fit to STM resources? Data Sharing… for active space objects Space Data Association Multi-national, open to all space operators in all orbital regimes Current Participants: • 24 contributing operators (includes Intelsat, Inmarsat, Telesat, SES, etc. ) • 3 civil satellite operators (includes NASA, NOAA, Eumetsat ) • Possible source of “free” information on active space objects • But care needs to be maintained to protect IP - 10

But what about the other 95%? Proposed: International Space Object Data Exchange (ISODEX) Existing organizations we can look to: Minor Planet Center (MPC) Int'l GNSS Service (IGS) • Following 120, 000 natural • Voluntary federation of space objects with 6 FTEs >200 int'l entities to share GNS data • NASA, IAU ties • Participant funded ISODEX Crowd-sourced observations UN COPUOS, IADC ties Funded by participants (cash or inkind) Virtual, International, non-profit LLC Space Data Association 23 Commercial Operators 3 Civil Space Agencies Participant funded Isle of Man Limited Corp. Minor Planet Center logo used by permission. - 11

STM infrastructure needs can be modest A 40 cm. t/s can detect a ~1 m 2 object at GEO. That size has been available since the 1700’s. http: //www. tmt. org/gallery/ photo-illustrations * *But need a sensitive CCD camera (happily, a Moore’s law device) Perhaps a STEM opportunity for developing space actors - 12

What about Active Debris Removal (ADR)? http: //actu. epfl. ch/news/cleaning-up-earth-s-orbit-a-swiss-satellite-tack-2/, accessed 4/6/14 - 13

One "hard" technical problem with ADR… • Most defunct payloads, rocket bodies, and debris pieces are spinning/tumbl ing. • "Noncooperative" • 0. 33 -20 RPM: ~30 km/hour • Would require extraordinary amounts of energy (Dv) to capture and remove 26 m Yaw spin Boeing image - 14

ADR alternatives that should be studied…. http: //www. gaerospace. com/projects/ GOLD/index. html, accessed 5/15/14 Regulatory solutions for De-orbit and Cubesat tracking • Increase AMR • RF-ID or similar Image courtesy: Dr. Darren Mc. Knight, SYSTEM ENGINEERING ANALYSIS OF DERELICT COLLISION PREVENTION OPTIONS, 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, IT; October 2012. Used by permission. - 15

What might be the logical next step to support STM? Where to spend limited resources? • Additional surveillance capabilities provide most efficient use of any additional funding » There are potentially many sources of new data that aren’t being exploited • Need to share data on debris internationally » Could be a new low-cost source of catalog information » A Civil entity probably best positioned to take advantage of this • Continue international discussions to develop best practices & guidance; helps to contain the future • Research into how to accomplish collision avoidance and/or debris removal - 16

CONCLUSIONS Ø STM will most likely not have monetary resources currently available for SSA Ø But Civil STM potentially easier fit in a multi-lateral world Ø Opportunity to do things “differently” Ø 10, 000's of space objects & growing Ø Need to pare down requirements/ “mission space” Ø International cooperation Ø Space is “global”, as are the actors Ø Time for “out of the box” thinking Ø Low-cost alternatives Ø STM needs a subset of SSA data Ø “More” and “Better”, yet “Cheaper” - 17