Southwest Monsoon Forecast 2019 MONSOON 2019 FORECAST 93

Southwest Monsoon Forecast 2019

MONSOON 2019 FORECAST 93% OF LPA (+/-5%) BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (LPA=887 mm) LPA (Long Period Average) © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

PROBABILITY OF MONSOON JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS) 15% Drought 30% Normal 0% Above Normal 0% Excess EXCESS 55% Below Normal ABOVE NORMAL © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT

MONSOON FORECAST 2019 289 mm #, ##0 MM 263 mm 261 mm 266 mm 173 mm 164 mm 171 mm #, ##0 MM 126 mm #, ##0 MM JUNE JULY Forecast (in mm) © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. AUGUST Normal (in mm) SEPTEMBER

PROBABILITY OF MONSOON JUNE 77% OF LPA NORMAL IS 164 mm 10% Above Normal 15% Normal 75% Below Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT

PROBABILITY OF MONSOON JULY 91% OF LPA NORMAL IS 289 mm 15% Above Normal 35% Normal EXCESS 55% Below Normal ABOVE NORMAL © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT

PROBABILITY OF MONSOON AUGUST 102% OF LPA NORMAL IS 261 mm 55% Normal 30% Below Normal 0 15% Above Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT

PROBABILITY OF MONSOON SEPTEMBER 99% OF LPA NORMAL IS 173 mm 55% Normal 30% Below Normal 0 15% Above Normal EXCESS ABOVE NORMAL © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. NORMAL BELOW NORMAL DROUGHT

El Niño and La Niña Forecast © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS) 36 N 33 N Rainfall Departure: -7% 30 N • East and Central India along with some pockets of South Peninsula could be at risk 27 N 24 N 21 N • Good rains for Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh 18 N 15 N 12 N 9 N 69 E -50 72 E 75 E -40 -30 78 E -20 -15 81 E 84 E 87 E -10 -5 5 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. 90 E 10 15 93 E 20 96 E 99 E 30 40 50

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION JUNE 36 N 33 N Rainfall Departure: 23% 30 N • Deficit rains for the country 27 N • Below normal rains for Central and East India 24 N 21 N • Monson yet to advance in Northwest India 18 N 15 N 12 N 9 N 69 E -50 72 E 75 E -40 -30 78 E -20 -15 81 E 84 E 87 E -10 -5 5 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. 90 E 10 15 93 E 20 96 E 99 E 30 40 50

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION JULY 36 N 33 N 30 N Rainfall Departure: -9% 27 N • Below normal rains for central and western parts of the country 24 N 21 N • Normal rains for South India 18 N 15 N 12 N 9 N 69 E -50 72 E 75 E -40 -30 78 E -20 -15 81 E 84 E 87 E -10 -5 5 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. 90 E 10 15 93 E 20 96 E 99 E 30 40 50

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AUGUST 36 N 33 N Rainfall Departure: 2% 30 N • Good rains for central parts, Western Ghats and Northeast India 27 N 24 N • Below normal rains for East India and northwest plains 21 N 18 N 15 N 12 N 9 N 69 E -50 72 E 75 E -40 -30 78 E -20 -15 81 E 84 E 87 E -10 -5 5 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. 90 E 10 15 93 E 20 96 E 99 E 30 40 50

MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION SEPTEMBER 36 N 33 N 30 N Rainfall Departure: -1% 27 N 24 N • Normal rains for the country 21 N • Above normal rains for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh 18 N 15 N 12 N 9 N 69 E -50 72 E 75 E -40 -30 78 E -20 -15 81 E 84 E 87 E -10 -5 5 © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. 90 E 10 15 93 E 20 96 E 99 E 30 40 50

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS ANDHRA PRADESH Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Kurnool Krishna Guntur Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore Chittoor Anantapur Y. S. R. BIHAR Bihar Bihar Bihar Vaishali Samastipur Bhojpur Supaul Darbhanga Madhepura Nawada Khagaria Munger © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. Bihar Bihar Bihar Bihar Bihar Siwan Gopalganj Kaimur (Bhabua) Saran Lakhisarai Jamui Aurangabad Patna Banka Arwal Pashchim Champaran Madhubani Purnia Rohtas Araria Katihar Muzaffarpur Sheikhpura Nalanda

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS Bihar Bihar Bihar Sheohar Kishanganj Buxar Begusarai Purba Champaran Jehanabad Bhagalpur Sitamarhi Saharsa Gaya JHARKHAND Jharkhand Jharkhand Giridih Pakur Kodarma Lohardaga Garhwa Ramgarh Khunti © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. Jharkhand Jharkhand Jharkhand Jharkhand Jharkhand Simdega Pashchimi Singhbhum Ranchi Dhanbad Palamu Chatra Bokaro Jamtara Gumla Purbi Singhbhum Latehar Saraikela-Kharsawan Godda Dumka Hazaribagh Deoghar Sahibganj

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS KARNATAKA Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Kodagu Chitradurga Raichur Chikkaballapura Bangalore Yadgir Haveri Dakshina Kannada Bangalore Rural Udupi Mandya Uttara Kannada Gulbarga Ramanagara Kolar Gadag Bijapur © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. Karnataka Karnataka Karnataka Dharwad Bidar Shimoga Mysore Bagalkot Davanagere Tumkur Hassan Bellary Chikmagalur Koppal Chamarajanagar

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS MADHYA PRADESH Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Dindori Seoni Hoshangabad Panna Barwani Harda Khandwa (East Nimar) Chhatarpur Bhopal Vidisha Dewas Sagar Burhanpur Khargone (West Nimar) Indore Betul Ashoknagar Agar Malwa © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Narsimhapur Dhar Sehore Neemuch Raisen Chhindwara Tikamgarh Jhabua Mandsaur Singrauli Alirajpur Mandla Jabalpur Rajgarh

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS MAHARASHTRA Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Nagpur Buldana Latur Osmanabad Wardha Amravati Akola Aurangabad Nandurbar Ahmadnagar Dhule Bhandara Chandrapur Nanded Parbhani Hingoli Yavatmal © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved. Maharashtra Maharashtra Bid Solapur Gadchiroli Jalgaon Gondiya Jalna Washim

HIGH RISK DISTRICTS WEST BENGAL West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal West Bengal North Twenty Four Parganas Nadia Maldah Haora Purba Medinipur Dakshin Dinajpur Hugli Barddhaman Puruliya Alipurduar Koch Bihar Bankura Kolkatta Uttar Dinajpur Jalpaiguri Paschim Medinipur Birbhum South Twenty Four Parganas Murshidabad © 2019 Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

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