Software Project Management Manage Unavoidable Complexity Avoid Unmanageable

Software Project Management Manage Unavoidable Complexity Avoid Unmanageable Complexity

Project Management: Some Statements • If you fail to plan, you plan to fail • Planning seems to increase luck • Planning and estimating is a key competence for all software engineers • If you don’t ask for risk information, you are asking for trouble • Uncertainty must certainly not be stated in uncertain terms • If you don’t actively attack risks, they will actively attack you • Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result • The most important customer of the project plan is the project team itself

Content • Project Management Basics • Requirements Management • Estimation • Risk Management • Project Tracking – Milestone Trend Analysis – Earned Value Chart • Intergroup Co-ordination • Peer Reviews • Problem Report Tracking

Project Management Basics If they are all fixed - Don’t appoint a project manager - Keep your fingers crossed If they can be adjusted - Appoint a project manager - Set priorities Cost - human resources - equipment - etc. Performance - specifications - derivatives - quality - etc. Schedule - lead time - process - planning

Project Management Processes Control Project Data Readjustment Deviations Schedule Cost Performance Plan Project Management Project Data Monitor Measured Data Project Implementation Product Project Technology Skills Resources

Two main phases in a software project Commercial Req. Spec. Functional Requirements Spec. Architecture / Top-Level Design Software Development Plan CD CS Concept Confirmation CR Product Implementation CS: Concept Start CD: Commitment Date (commitment to cost, schedule, performance) CR: Commercial Release

Content of a Software Development Plan • Objectives, Scope (with reference to specification/architecture) • Deliverables • Activities (work breakdown structure with activities of max. 2 - 3 weeks) • Assumptions, Dependencies, Constraints (e. g. , required hardware models, intergroup dependencies) • Estimates (size, effort, schedule, computer resources, + justification) • Project Organization and Resource Allocation • Schedule of Activities (including project milestones) • Risk Management (identification, resolution, monitoring of risks) • If applicable, Subcontract Management Plan(s) • Progress reporting and communication structure • Software Development Environment (methods/tools/standards) • Project Quality Plan (inc. (intermediate) release acceptance criteria) • Software Configuration Management Plan

Requirements Management • At the beginning of the project: – Collect commercial requirements as input – Write Requirements Specification – Review with all stakeholders – Formally approve the specification and use it as baseline for the project activities • What goes wrong? – Stakeholders don’t know what they want – Not all stakeholders identified (e. g. , service, factory) Ø Many change requests during the project • Possible solutions: – Work on requirements in a pre-project phase – Rapid prototyping / incremental deliveries – Formal change control

Estimation • The only unforgivable failure is to not learn from past failures • Project failures are mostly caused by inflated and unreasonable expectations • Definitions of Estimate: Default Prediction that meets the enforced deadline Alternative Most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true Proposed Equally likely to be above or below actual result

Causes of inaccurate estimates From: Nine Management Guidelines for Better Cost Estimating Albert L. Lederer and Jayesh Prasad Communications of the ACM, Vol. 35, Nr. 2, Febr. 1992 • Frequent requests for changes • Overlooked tasks • User’s lack of understanding of their own requirements • Insufficient communication and understanding between users and analysts • Poor or imprecise problem definition • Insufficient analysis when developing estimate • Lack of co-ordination between involved disciplines • Lack of an adequate methodology or guidelines for estimating (lack of historical data)

How to develop estimates? - 1 • Immature (lack of) process: estimated date = target date • First improvement step: Size/effort estimates are made based on expert opinions and the project team’s own historical data using Wide Band Delphi techniques • Wide Band Delphi: – A facilitator is assigned, who organises an estimation meeting and presents each expert with an estimation form. – The participants discuss estimation issues using their knowledge of the requirements and the software architecture. – Each participant fills out the estimation form anonymously and hands it over to the facilitator. The participants should not share their estimates. – The facilitator prepares and distributes a summary of the estimates with the averages and standard deviations of all estimates. – The facilitator initiates a discussion between the experts focussing on those points where their estimates varied widely. – After the discussion, the experts fill out the estimation forms, again anonymously, and hand them over to the facilitator. The last 3 steps are repeated until consensus is reached.

How to develop estimates? - 2 • What can go wrong with Wide Band Delphi? – No consensus has been reached when the plan must be presented to management – Average of the individual estimates is taken as the final estimate – But: when the deviation remains high, you only know that you have insufficient insight • Next improvement step: Size/effort estimates are made using historical data from the Organization’s Software Process Database (with an explicit effort to use data from “similar” projects) – Use expert opinion to determine the “project type” – Use historical data from the same type of projects for productivity figures (from “size” to “effort”)

Project type classification From: Software Project Management by Walker Royce, Addison-Wesley, 1998, ISBN 81 -7808 -013 -3

Risk Management • List top-x of risks Risk Probability P Effect (1 -5) Seriousness Exposure S (1 -5) P * S (1 -25) • Add actions to prevent the risk from occurring • Add contingency plans (what to do when the risk materializes) Risk Probability P (1 -5) Effect Seriousness S (1 -5) Exposure P * S (1 -25) Aversion action Action holder Contingency • Plan capacity for a certain percentage of the total effort required for contingency plans

Project Tracking Dilbert by Scott Adams

Content of a Software Progress Report - 1 • Management Summary and Attention Points – short status overview – issues requiring immediate management action • Project Dashboard – Milestone Trend Analysis – Earned Value Chart • Project Status – – major results achieved during the reporting period major expectations for the coming period complete list of deliverables/results project definition changes (planned vs. actual number of change requests) – main problems and issues • Risk Management – identification of risks + probability + effects + seriousness – actions + action holders + action status

Content of a Software Progress Report - 2 • Project Staffing – planned versus actual staffing • Budget – budgeted versus actual costs • Problem Reports – % of test cases passed / failed / not yet executed – expected versus actual numbers – status of CR/PRs (entered, analyzed, solved, tested, closed, rejected) • Performance Tracking – actual size figures (versus estimates) – actual usage of critical computer resources (versus estimates) • Inter-group Deliverables and Issues – identification of all inter-group deliverables and issues – actions + action holders + action status • Other Issues

Milestone Trend Analysis

Example Milestone Trend Analysis dec nov oct sep aug july june may apr Commercial Release mar Design Release feb Product Range Start jan jan feb mar apr may june july aug sep oct nov dec Actual time What can you learn of these MTA’s? Actual time

Simple WBS Example

Schedule Example

Earned Value Chart (incomplete) Planned Effort and Value

Schedule Example

Earned Value Tangible Deliverables - Earned Value Planned Effort and Value Time Cards - Effort Spent

Earned Value Chart Planned Effort and Value Effort Spent Earned Value Schedule Budget Analysis Mitigation : : Slip of 3 weeks, 50% delay 20 % under budget, 50 % effort overrun Carol still at other project, lower productivity than estimated Depending on priority setting: less functionality and/or more budget and/or delayed release

Maturity of project tracking process • Lack of process: Constant crisis and re-actions • First improvement: Corrective actions are taken when the actual results deviate significantly (based on team judgment) from the plan • Next improvement: Corrective actions when the actual results deviate significantly (more than pre-defined thresholds (based on experience)) from the plan • Final improvement: Corrective actions when the actual results deviate significantly (i. e. outside the Upper and Lower Control Limits (obtained from Statistical Process Control)) from the plan

Inter-group co-ordination • Required deliverables from other groups (internal and/or external) are listed under “Dependencies” in the project plan: it is assumed that these deliveries will be on time and with the right quality • Improvement step: all (intermediate) deliverables from/to other groups are explicitly listed with delivery date and person responsible, and quality criteria are defined and agreed upon for all deliverables from/to other groups • Next improvement step: – pro-active checking of the status of the expected deliverables – in case of problems, a joint effort is started to solve the issue – in case of disagreement, the issue is escalated via predefined and agreed upon channels

Peer Reviews • 2 types of review: – To improve quality through detection of defects by peers as early as possible – To formally approve a deliverable by e. g. , project leader, system architect, management • Lack of process: document quickly read by reviewers • First improvements (to establish stable process): – Review meetings and preparation time planned – Checklists (per type of documented) used and maintained – Metrics collected (preparation time, review meeting time, number of major/minor defects found, etc. ) • Next improvements (to improve yield): – Ensure right persons are involved in review – Measure and ensure effectiveness of reviews

Problem Report Handling: Maturity Grid Severity of problem: • • • S: Safety, the product causes a dangerous situation A: Product cannot be shipped, most customers will return it – – Errors in basic functionality Major errors in advanced functions Non-compliance to standards Errors that are irritating for every customer B: Product can be sold, but critical customers will return it – Minor errors in the basic functions – Major errors in the functions difficult to reach (>2 levels deep in the menus) – Major errors in stress tests C: Customers tolerate the defect or do not see it – Minor errors in the functions difficult to reach – Minor errors in stress tests D: The defect is accepted for the product Evolution of problem • 4: Problem entered, cause not yet known • 3: Problem analyzed, cause known, problem assigned to engineer • 2: Solution implemented and tested by engineer • 1: Solution tested by tester, included in formal release, and declared solved • 0: Solution verified by submitter and declared closed

Problem Report Handling: Example Maturity Grid S A B C D 4 0 1 3 12 0 3 3 8 0 2 0 3 11 24 0 1 0 5 31 56 0 0 1 26 79 125 7

Problem Report Handling • All tests done and Maturity Grid shows: • Can we start releasing the product? • It depends ! S A B C D 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 7 0 1 0 5 17 12 0 0 0 164 206 343 53

Final Project Stage - PR Curve Asymptotic

The Asymptotic Period How to limit the “asymptotic” period for maturing the software? Find as many defects as possible as early as possible! Measures to be taken: • Ensure (plan + track) that all required testing is done on time – Integration, functional, system, electrical, torture room, field, factory, service, conformance, stress/stability • Ensure multiple rounds of testing are done on time – After fixing an “A” problem (e. g. certain functionality does not work at all) found in the first round, multiple “B” and “C” problems will probably be found in the next round • Prioritize PRs and ensure PRs are closed when they have been solved Longer term improvements: • Reuse test cases (increasing test coverage) – Random testing often results in PRs and should result in new test cases – Measure test coverage, track % of test cases executed and passed