SocioTechnical Transitions Models for Change Jeffery Cottes Adjunct

Socio-Technical Transitions Models for Change Jeffery Cottes Adjunct Professor October 30, 2013 Eckhardt-Gramatté Hall, University of Winnipeg Find out more at www. insidepolicy. wordpress. com

Socio-Technical Transitions �Definition: ◦ a gradual, continuous process of change where the structural character of a society (or complex subsystem of society) transforms.

Energy Transitions 6 th Wave 5 th Wave Sustainability Radical resource productivity Whole system design Biomimicry Green Chemistry Industrial ecology Renewable Energy Green nanotechnology Innovation 4 th Wave Digital Networks Biotechnology Software Information technology 3 rd Wave 2 nd Wave 1 st Wave Steam power Railroad Steel Cotton Iron Waterpower Mechanisation Textiles Commerce 1785 1845 1900 Electricity Chemicals Internal combustion engine Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Space 1950 1990 2020 Source: Hargroves, K. and M. Smith (2008)

Socio-Technical Transitions �‘transition studies’ ◦ brings together research on sociotechnical systems, public policy and administration, and sustainability studies ◦ bidirectional analysis between human and technological systems ◦ niches, regimes and landscapes are analytical levels within the social-technical system

Models of Growth Innovation Conventional growth Time

Models of Growth Innovation Conventional growth Conventional Development Paradigm Time

Models of Growth Innovation Conventional growth Sustainable Development Paradigm Conventional Development Paradigm Time

Models of Growth Innovation Sustainability Conventional growth Sustainable Development Paradigm Conventional Development Paradigm Time

Model of Technological Diffusion Stabilisation Technological Diffusion Breakthrough Take-off Predevelopment Time

Model of Technological Diffusion

Model of Technological Diffusion Stabilisation Technological Diffusion Breakthrough Take-off Predevelopment Time

Model of Technological Diffusion La nd sc ap e Technological Diffusion Stabilisation Pr es su re s Breakthrough Take-off Predevelopment Time

Model of Technological Diffusion La nd sc ap e Technological Diffusion Stabilisation Pr es su re s Breakthrough Take-off Niche development pathways Predevelopment Time

Model of Technological Diffusion La nd sc ap e Technological Diffusion Stabilisation Pr es su re s Breakthrough Regime Take-off Niche development pathways Predevelopment Time

Governance and Change La Stabilisation Innovation Sustainability Conventional growth Time Sustainable Development Paradigm Conventional Development Paradigm Technological Diffusion nd sc a pe Breakthrough Regime Take-off Predevelopment Niches Time How do we couple Innovation with Technological Diffusion?

Governance and Change Stabilisation Technological Diffusion Breakthrough Sustainability Regime Conventional growth Take-off Sustainable Development Paradigm Predevelopment Time Conventional Development Paradigm

Final Thoughts 1. Change will occur, so what kind of change do we want? 2. What forces are in play, and how can we make sense of them? 3. Which of these system levels are able to shape the future of sustainability?

Socio-Technical Transitions Models for Change www. insidepolicy. wordpress. com Jeffery Cottes j. cottes@uwinnipeg. ca