SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF
SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM by Pál TAMÁS [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest]
FRAMES OF THE PROJECT HUNGARY 2015 PROJEKT a. Elite-Delphi b. Representative national survey about perceptions of the future SCENARIOS: a. Human capital and learning-centered b. „chamber of trade-oriented” [middle term competitiveness] c. soft growth [sensitivity to social cohesion and sustainibility]
Value leads to wealth and is the foundation for a healthy society and a sustainable environment YS S N MS E T IO AT V NO IN RE VALUE SE AR CH Wealth Generation Healthy Sustainable Society Environment
REFERENCE POINTS OF THE MODELL
STRUCTURE OF THE MODELL
PERCEPTIONS OF THE FUTURE [linear in the elites, chaotic in lower middle class and further down] Levels of uncertainty: 1 A B 2 3 ? C D Clear-enough future Alternate futures Range of futures True ambiguity forecast Discrete options No natural option No basis forecast Traditional toolkit Game theory Decision analysis Scenario planning analogies Pattern recognition
LIMITED TIME HORIZONS: UNFORSEEN REFLEXION POINTS
„SCIENCE” IN THE ELITEDELPHI „KNOWLEDGE-SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY” - Metaphore of future for the upper-middle class for the a. quality of life, b. its selt-confidency in the international environment, c. Relative autonomies inside of the political class, d. Perceptions of the actual Central European geopolitics.
BASIC QUESTIONS a. Surviving perceptions of the„progress” paradigm among the public? b. Intensity of Hungarian cultural „pessimism”? c. Limits of autonomies in strategic decisions d. Points and zones of state interventions?
THE ROLE OF NATIONAL SCIENCE SYSTEMS IN THE ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE FUTURE 1. choices of the research system in active formation of future profiles of the country 2. „push-pull” points in the national innovation system 3. Perceived openess of the university and research system 4. „excellence, or relevance” 5. Tools and points of intervention
FUTURE CONTURES OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM, % proba potent. state bility conflict interv. Mass university [60% of the cohort] 62. 1 23. 4 57. 3 10% foreign students 12. 8 17. 1 26. 0 40% working class kids = students 39. 3 16. 6 38. 7 40% of rural kids =rural students 33. 1 19. 2 47. 0 25% of Roma minority kids with 12 classes 17. 9 36. 3 68. 5 Retraining chanels not only for the losers 37. 5 16. 4 39. 5 Brain drain outward 45. 7 53. 2 74. 2 Brain drain inward 14. 4 19. 7 37. 5 2 major EU research centers in Hungary 49. 7 10. 3 62. 0 Ph. D production minimum 2 x higher 29. 8 12. 8 38. 0 GERD up to 1. 5 -2. 0% 42. 1 27. 5 77. 8
SCIENCE POLICY HORIZONS probabil pot. co ity nflict state interv. medical science: +5 years growing role of scienctific elites 48. 4 34. 9 26. 4 23. 6 58. 8 42. 1 growing professional autonomy human capital financing- gover. science- public confidence growing- PUS in media research intensity in nat. econ. High-skill state empl. Stability 2 HU „Silicon V. ” 28. 2 22. 9 47. 6 38. 5 60. 4 38. 9 22. 0 36. 0 35. 0 18. 9 14. 6 19. 2 31. 2 11. 9 42. 0 72. 4 50. 9 43. 8 66. 8 57. 2 62. 5
SHORTAGE OF RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY PERSONAL DUE TO THE BRAIN DRAIN
GERD FROM 0. 95 TO 1. 5 -2. 0%
STRONG HIGH SKILL IMMIGRATION
BUDAPEST IS THE CENTER OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION FOR EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE
- Slides: 16