Social Protection Floor Building the Assessment Matrix Thailand

Social Protection Floor Building the Assessment Matrix: Thailand Experiences ILO Training Workshop: “Social Protection: Assessment, Costing and Beyond” Faculty of Economic, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, 18 October 2012 Orawan Prasitsiriphon Actuary, Health Insurance System Research Office Health System Research Institution, Ministry of Public Health

Structure of the RAP LABOUR MARKET MODEL LABOUR MARKET GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS MODEL DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL MACROECONOMIC MODEL BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE SUMMARY AND RESULTS Source: RAP Model (ILO) Output of the four blue blocks are input for each benefit

Need To Answer • How many people are there in your benefit? • How much does it cost? • How to sustain the benefit in the future?

The Example: Available Source for Statistic Data / Data Projection In Thailand: There are many institutions, which regularly produce statistics and projections • National Statistic Office: – Population census and other surveys • Ministry of Interior – Registration database of Citizen (Citizen Identification number) • National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB): – Official population projection, Poverty line • Ministry of Commerce: – Official Price Index • Research Institutions/Universities such as College of Population Studies (Chulalongkorn University), Institute for Population and Social Research (Mahidol University) – Population projection – Related researches

How to find the data? ? ?

Looking and gathering data Planning List things to do Contact Explain why you need data

Please Keep In Mind!!! Data are never perfect!!!

How to Forecast Population and Economic Active Population (EAP)?

Population Projection • To forecast a population size in the future. • Relevant to many projections. • For example, labour force projection, employment projection etc.

Demographic Data • There are 2 alternative ways: – Using an official population projection from an authority in your country – Project it by yourself! • Cohort component

Cohort Component Method • Fertility • Newborns • Mortality • Survival • Migration

Demographic projections Population in year t Rate of survival Net migration Population in year t +1 (for ages > 1) Fertility rate Sex ratio at birth Source: ILO Population in year t+1 (for all ages) Population in year t +1 (for ages < 1)

Cohort-wise demographic projections Source: Modified from ILO

Life Table • To measure deaths, survivals and the life expectancy of a population. – Life table in your country – the united nations – the Coale-Demeny. • Survival rates are derived from life tables.

United Nation Life tables • • • The Latin American pattern, The Chilean pattern, The South Asian pattern, The Far Eastern pattern, The General pattern. Mortality pattern of female : e 0 = 75 years 0, 350 0, 300 0, 250 General South Asia Far East Latin America Chile 0, 200 0, 150 0, 100 0, 050 0, 000 0 6 121824303642485460667278849096 Read more detailed: http: //www. un. org/esa/population/publications/Manual_X_Chapter_1. pdf

Calculation the number of deaths - survivals Deaths(2010)=Mortality rate*Pop(2010) Age 00 1 2 3 4 5 Mortality Male 0. 0084 0. 0007 Pop Survival(2011)=Pop(2010) -Deaths(2010) Deaths Survival 2010 2011 2010 356, 209 3, 009 373, 622 278 353, 200 403, 800 301 373, 343 449, 310 335 403, 499 414, 605 309 448, 975 414, 296

Fertility rate • Age-specific fertility rate 1 – Number of births to women of a particular age. • Total fertility rate 1 – Average number of children a woman would bear during her lifetime, assuming her childbearing conforms to her age-specific fertility rate every year of her childbearing years (typically, age 15 to 49). • Sex ratio 2 – Ratio of males to females in a population. Source 1 http: //www. businessdictionary. com/definition/fertility-rate. html 2 http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Sex_ratio

Calculation of the newborns NB=Fertility* Female pop. Age group 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 Fertility rate Female Sex ratio = 1. 06 Newborns NB: Male NB: Female 2, 552, 60 0. 0098 0 25, 015 12, 872 2, 557, 44 0. 0691 3 176, 719 90, 933 2, 617, 71 0. 1243 6 325, 382 167, 430 2, 671, 01 0. 0796 2 212, 613 109, 403 2, 824, 04 12, 143 85, 786 157, 952 103, 210

Migration • Migration = In migration – Immigration • International migration could fluctuate largely from year to year form socioeconomic and political factors. So the components are primarily forecast as numerical levels with age and sex detail, rather than rates. (http: //www. census. gov/population/www/pro jections/methodstatement 08. html) • Number of international migration is small compare to total population • Usually, we assume net migration = 0.

Labour force data Historical data and distribution by age and sex of: – Labour force – Participation rates – Employed persons – Unemployment rate

Labor Force / Economically active person Population over 15 years old = Labour force + Non Labour force Population (Over age 15) Labour force or Economy active population Employed Labour Force Participation Rate = (Labour Force / Total Population over Age 15) * 100 Non Labour Force (Including students, retirees, the disabled, etc. ) Unemployed • Labour Force = Number of Employed + Number of Unemployed Unemployment Rate = (Number of Unemployed / Labour Force) * 100

Thai Population and labour force in 2007 700 000 600 000 Pop_M 500 000 LAB_M 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 0 0 6 121824303642485460667278849096 Age

Exercise 1 Please fill the answer on below table. Mortality Deaths_201 Pop_2011 Pop_2012 Rate 1 2 Age Pop_Tot 0 1 2 3 4 200 200 200 0. 02 0. 005 4 1 1 190 3. 80 0. 98 1. 00 180 96 97 98 99 100 25 20 15 10 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 1 12. 5 12 10. 5 8 5 35 18 8 6 4 2 30

Exercise 2 Please fill in the data on below table Age group 0 -14 15 -59 60+ Total Labour Force Paricipation Rate 2010 2011 2012 200 240 300 700 840 1, 050 100 120 150 1, 000 1, 200 1, 500 80% 75% 70% 5% 5% 5% Labour Force (persons) Unemployment rate Employed person

Thank you for your attention Q&A

Answer for exercise 1 Mortality Deaths_201 Pop_2011 Pop_2012 Rate 1 2 Age Pop_Tot 0 1 2 3 4 200 200 200 0. 02 0. 005 4 1 1 190 196 199 199 3. 80 0. 98 1. 00 186 195 198 96 97 98 99 100 25 20 15 10 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 1 12. 5 12 10. 5 8 5 35 13 8 5 2 18 8 6 4 2 30 18 5 2 1

Answer for exercise 2 Age group 0 -14 15 -59 60+ Total Labour Force Paricipation Rate Labour Force Unemployment rate Employed person 2010 2011 2012 200 240 300 700 840 1, 050 100 120 150 1, 000 1, 200 1, 500 80% 640 5% 608 75% 720 5% 684 70% 840 5% 798